Shimano Prices?

[oldguy00]

Why is it that over the past year Shimano 7900 prices have gone way up, worse than Campy and Red?? At least it seems that way. $500 for shifters, close to $500 for cranks, $300+ brakes. What gives?

[Desert Fox]

May be because the yen has appreciated significantly against many world currencies over the past year and a half, as it is considered a safe haven currency in the currently economic mess.

[verticaldoug]

Mostly driven by the dollar yen rate.
3/2010 93.47
12/2010 81.12
08/2011 78.40

Your dollars have lost about 20% in value vs. yen over this time period.

Euro- USD
3/2010 1.3510
12/2010 1.3384
08/2011 1.4282

Your dollars have lost about 6% vs euro over same time period.

Just wait till they reset Assos prices!
Suisse Franc vs USD
3/2010 1.0539
12/2010 .9352
8/2011 .7674

37% decrease in value vs Suisse. Anyone for $500 assos bibs?

I hear the Suisse are looking to hire Americans if you are willing to do yard work.

[godfrey1112000]

You are right on target, now if we drive up interest rates, if the Government borrows and spends less and maybe even tax more, lower the debt the dollar will soar

saw some Assos Bibs promoted as a sale for $339

Originally Posted by verticaldoug

Mostly driven by the dollar yen rate.
3/2010 93.47
12/2010 81.12
08/2011 78.40

Your dollars have lost about 20% in value vs. yen over this time period.

Euro- USD
3/2010 1.3510
12/2010 1.3384
08/2011 1.4282

Your dollars have lost about 6% vs euro over same time period.

Just wait till they reset Assos prices!
Suisse Franc vs USD
3/2010 1.0539
12/2010 .9352
8/2011 .7674

37% decrease in value vs Suisse. Anyone for $500 assos bibs?

I hear the Suisse are looking to hire Americans if you are willing to do yard work.

[CNY rider]

Originally Posted by Desert Fox

May be because the yen has appreciated significantly against many world currencies over the past year and a half, as it is considered a safe haven currency in the currently economic mess.

Sorry to be off-topic but the rise in the yen is not happening because it is a safe haven currency.
There is a huge structural short position in the yen (since they can be borrowed for free) and that is causing the recent run-up, and the Japanese govt. has been unable to stop it.

[Desert Fox]

Sorry to be off-topic but the rise in the yen is not happening because it is a safe haven currency. There is a huge structural short position in the yen (since they can be borrowed for free) and that is causing the recent run-up, and the Japanese govt. has been unable to stop it.

The recent run-up over the past couple weeks may be so, however the OP was talking about the increase in pricing of Shimano products over the past year or two.

It used to be quite a good play to borrow yen at essentially zero interest and invest it elsewhere; however, with interest rates at or close to zero in so many countries worldwide (incl. US), it's no longer as attractive. The yen is considered a "safe haven" in the sense that, when stock markets worldwide drop, there is often greater demand for yen, despite the anemic performance of the Tokyo stock market over the past 10 years, a shrinking tax base due to demographics, and Japanese govt debt level at over 200% of GDP - a far higher level than, for example, the US or Greece or Ireland. However with 95% of that debt being held domestically, default is considered highly improbable.

Now we are well and truly off-topic!

[CNY rider]

Originally Posted by Desert Fox

The recent run-up over the past couple weeks may be so, however the OP was talking about the increase in pricing of Shimano products over the past year or two.

It used to be quite a good play to borrow yen at essentially zero interest and invest it elsewhere; however, with interest rates at or close to zero in so many countries worldwide (incl. US), it's no longer as attractive. The yen is considered a "safe haven" in the sense that, when stock markets worldwide drop, there is often greater demand for yen, despite the anemic performance of the Tokyo stock market over the past 10 years, a shrinking tax base due to demographics, and Japanese govt debt level at over 200% of GDP - a far higher level than, for example, the US or Greece or Ireland. However with 95% of that debt being held domestically, default is considered highly improbable.

Now we are well and truly off-topic!

Good post!

[verticaldoug]

Originally Posted by Desert Fox

The recent run-up over the past couple weeks may be so, however the OP was talking about the increase in pricing of Shimano products over the past year or two.

Japanese work on April-April fiscal year. Chances are Shimano has reset currency hedges and raised prices accordingly.

I can expand the data for you.

june07 123.17
june08 106.21
june09 96.36
june10 83.53
june11 80.56

Actually, Japan lost it's AAA in 2001. It was downgraded again this year to AA-. Although small, the risk of default is higher than that of the U.S. according to the rating agencies. The fact the Japanese debt is largely held by Japanese institutions has nothing to do with default, it has to do with the price they will pay for the debt.

However, at some point if the Japanese Gov cannot pay , it is a default regardless who holds it. The fact the debt is held by the domestics just means they will probably be willing to roll it over longer postponing the inevitable.

in 1985 as an exchange student, I received around 250 to the dollar.
1987 after plaza accord, it was down to 140.

Now we are really off topic. However, considering the debasing of the dollar is something that will come to dominate all of our lives, maybe not.