Has the vintage steel market crashed?

[oldguy00]

Of course the market is dying with regards to steel frames and handbuilt wheels.
Any new riders getting into the sport in the last 10+ years would have never heard of any of this stuff, much less have any interest in it. Any older riders (like me) who grew up racing steel, have moved on to more modern, more comfortable bikes. I still love seeing a nice pic of a Merck MX in telecom pink, but I wouldn't want to bother riding one.

[rounder]

I do not know more than anyone else here, but to me it is about planned obsolescence by the bike manufacturers.

We have a refrigerator that is about 30 years old, my wife loves her dishwasher and washer that are both about 15 years old and pays money to keep them working. We try to keep our cars for about 10 years. I love my steel bikes and did searches to find good components that would go with them. We like our appliances that still work and the bikes.

To me, bike companies do not want everyone riding old bikes. They are in the business to sell bikes. They would rather see us riding new (their) bikes every 5 years or so and then buy a new one for the new technology. That is how they make money. It seems like they would like for us to ride the new bike until something even newer comes out so it can be replaced by the newest and greatest.

[tv_vt]

Originally Posted by oldguy00

Of course the market is dying with regards to steel frames and handbuilt wheels.
Any new riders getting into the sport in the last 10+ years would have never heard of any of this stuff, much less have any interest in it. Any older riders (like me) who grew up racing steel, have moved on to more modern, more comfortable bikes. I still love seeing a nice pic of a Merck MXL in telecom pink, but I wouldn't want to bother riding one.

My Merckx MXL is as comfortable and as fun to ride as any other bike I've ever owned. It truly surprises me how nice it is to ride. But I don't really care if you want to ride one or not, though. Totally your call. Lots of nice bikes out there, of all ages.

[vespasianus]

Originally Posted by tv_vt

My Merckx MXL is as comfortable and as fun to ride as any other bike I've ever owned. It truly surprises me how nice it is to ride. But I don't really care if you want to ride one or not, though. Totally your call. Lots of nice bikes out there, of all ages.

I have a modern carbon disc brake road bike, a modern stainless steel gravel bike (with very road bike geometry) and an older "normal" diameter steel bike but with modern components.

And surprisingly, it is rather shocking how comfortable old steel bikes are. Those small diameter tubes work perfectly fine with 25mm tires.

[El Chaba]

We have at least two separate (but related) discussions occurring. The first and original subject pertains to the resale value of a vintage steel bike. Bikes whose market value is determined completely by their value as a somewhat generic tool for a job have experienced nothing short of a collapse in value when compared to Covid-era levels. On the other hand, the very desirable continues to be the very desirable. Of course condition is everything, but nice bikes like a Pegoretti, Sachs, DeRosa, etc. have maintained their value….as they should.
The second subject pertains to the general utility of a vintage steel bike. For all of the “advancements” that have been made with bicycle technology, proper steel bike remains as the gold standard for ride quality. For whatever reason it does not seem to be widely recognized that great bikes have been great bikes for a LONG time. If you go back a few years, you get into the era when the innovations and design of bikes was all driven by small companies and custom builders who were very closely tied to the sport and culture. I have long contended that what makes a bike great is BALANCE. Unfortunately as large companies with a corporate mentality have taken over the production of the products used in our sport it is the concept of balance that has been lost. Everything is made to maximize or minimize some measurable parameter…weight….aerodynamic drag…rolling resistance…etc as if the whole can be completely accounted for by summing those factors. The bikes that represent the era of balance well have an inherent value that is still recognized by an admittedly decreasing number, but it is a number sufficient to maintain resale value. Of course, if you own such a machine or machines, the resale value is completely meaningless unless you are trying to sell. I always say that my bikes are in the possession of the person who values them the most which is another great rationalization for maintaining a bit of a “collection”…

[NHAero]

Originally Posted by tv_vt

My Merckx MXL is as comfortable and as fun to ride as any other bike I've ever owned. It truly surprises me how nice it is to ride. But I don't really care if you want to ride one or not, though. Totally your call. Lots of nice bikes out there, of all ages.

When you get your Kirk, I will be interested in your comparison between older and new steel (with the stainless steel Responsorium thrown into the mix as well). I don't expect that my 52 year old skinny tube 531 frame rides like a current steel bike.

I have steel, titanium, and carbon drop bar bikes, and enjoy them all immensely.

[jimbolina]

Originally Posted by El Chaba

We have at least two separate (but related) discussions occurring. The first and original subject pertains to the resale value of a vintage steel bike. Bikes whose market value is determined completely by their value as a somewhat generic tool for a job have experienced nothing short of a collapse in value when compared to Covid-era levels. On the other hand, the very desirable continues to be the very desirable. Of course condition is everything, but nice bikes like a Pegoretti, Sachs, DeRosa, etc. have maintained their value….as they should.
The second subject pertains to the general utility of a vintage steel bike. For all of the “advancements” that have been made with bicycle technology, proper steel bike remains as the gold standard for ride quality. For whatever reason it does not seem to be widely recognized that great bikes have been great bikes for a LONG time. If you go back a few years, you get into the era when the innovations and design of bikes was all driven by small companies and custom builders who were very closely tied to the sport and culture. I have long contended that what makes a bike great is BALANCE. Unfortunately as large companies with a corporate mentality have taken over the production of the products used in our sport it is the concept of balance that has been lost. Everything is made to maximize or minimize some measurable parameter…weight….aerodynamic drag…rolling resistance…etc as if the whole can be completely accounted for by summing those factors. The bikes that represent the era of balance well have an inherent value that is still recognized by an admittedly decreasing number, but it is a number sufficient to maintain resale value. Of course, if you own such a machine or machines, the resale value is completely meaningless unless you are trying to sell. I always say that my bikes are in the possession of the person who values them the most which is another great rationalization for maintaining a bit of a “collection”…

Love this!

As always, your contributions are both reliably thoughtful and very well put.

[spoonrobot]

Originally Posted by El Chaba

We have at least two separate (but related) discussions occurring. The first and original subject pertains to the resale value of a vintage steel bike. Bikes whose market value is determined completely by their value as a somewhat generic tool for a job have experienced nothing short of a collapse in value when compared to Covid-era levels. On the other hand, the very desirable continues to be the very desirable. Of course condition is everything, but nice bikes like a Pegoretti, Sachs, DeRosa, etc. have maintained their value….as they should.
The second subject pertains to the general utility of a vintage steel bike. For all of the “advancements” that have been made with bicycle technology, proper steel bike remains as the gold standard for ride quality. For whatever reason it does not seem to be widely recognized that great bikes have been great bikes for a LONG time. If you go back a few years, you get into the era when the innovations and design of bikes was all driven by small companies and custom builders who were very closely tied to the sport and culture. I have long contended that what makes a bike great is BALANCE. Unfortunately as large companies with a corporate mentality have taken over the production of the products used in our sport it is the concept of balance that has been lost. Everything is made to maximize or minimize some measurable parameter…weight….aerodynamic drag…rolling resistance…etc as if the whole can be completely accounted for by summing those factors. The bikes that represent the era of balance well have an inherent value that is still recognized by an admittedly decreasing number, but it is a number sufficient to maintain resale value. Of course, if you own such a machine or machines, the resale value is completely meaningless unless you are trying to sell. I always say that my bikes are in the possession of the person who values them the most which is another great rationalization for maintaining a bit of a “collection”…

"Nice bikes" have suffered the same boom and bust cycle due to COVID as commodity bikes. Perhaps worse due to smaller and more specific market.

A De Rosa Professional with Record/SR had a list price of $1700 in 1986. For it to have maintained it's value, adjusted for inflation - it should be selling for at least $4800 today.

There aren't many but from what I can see on eBay and forums, the frames are generally sold for <$1000 and the complete bikes for <$2000 - prices for best condition.

De Rosa Nuovo Classico has a list of $2695 for complete and $1185 for frameset, in 1991. $6200 and $2700 in todays value. There's a 54 on eBay languishing for $2150 and another that sold for ~$1000 in March.

Are there any bicycles from the 1990s at all, that would actually sell at $6200 today?

The only bikes that have maintained their value appear to be extreme outliers. Custom and bespoke bicycles are a much more opaque value but from what I can see - knowing what a Pegoretti or Sachs frameset cost new - both suffer significant depreciation whether actually built and ridden or kept NOS.

There's a team issue RS cross bike across the hall that the seller purports to have purchased off eBay for $4000, 11 years ago in 2013. It's been sitting unsold, at the same price today, for 6 months. Depending on how one does the math, it's lost ~30% of it's value.

Nice bikes maintain their value, as a product sold new to buyers by the manufacturer or dealer. A new Pegoretti seems to match inflation closely, you can buy a new production De Rosa Neo Classico frameset for pretty close to what the adjusted for inflation cost of the frameset was in 1991.

There are definitely bicycles that have maintained or exceeded their value, but they are so specific and rare it's irrelevant to the "market" in my opinion.

[christian]

Originally Posted by spoonrobot

Are there any bicycles from the 1990s at all, that would actually sell at $6200 today?

Johan Museeuw's 1993 Tour of Flanders bike, or something like that. No production bike for sure.

[NHAero]

Originally Posted by spoonrobot

"Nice bikes" have suffered the same boom and bust cycle due to COVID as commodity bikes. Perhaps worse due to smaller and more specific market.

A De Rosa Professional with Record/SR had a list price of $1700 in 1986. For it to have maintained it's value, adjusted for inflation - it should be selling for at least $4800 today.

There aren't many but from what I can see on eBay and forums, the frames are generally sold for <$1000 and the complete bikes for <$2000 - prices for best condition.

De Rosa Nuovo Classico has a list of $2695 for complete and $1185 for frameset, in 1991. $6200 and $2700 in todays value. There's a 54 on eBay languishing for $2150 and another that sold for ~$1000 in March.

Are there any bicycles from the 1990s at all, that would actually sell at $6200 today?

The only bikes that have maintained their value appear to be extreme outliers. Custom and bespoke bicycles are a much more opaque value but from what I can see - knowing what a Pegoretti or Sachs frameset cost new - both suffer significant depreciation whether actually built and ridden or kept NOS.

There's a team issue RS cross bike across the hall that the seller purports to have purchased off eBay for $4000, 11 years ago in 2013. It's been sitting unsold, at the same price today, for 6 months. Depending on how one does the math, it's lost ~30% of it's value.

Nice bikes maintain their value, as a product sold new to buyers by the manufacturer or dealer. A new Pegoretti seems to match inflation closely, you can buy a new production De Rosa Neo Classico frameset for pretty close to what the adjusted for inflation cost of the frameset was in 1991.

There are definitely bicycles that have maintained or exceeded their value, but they are so specific and rare it's irrelevant to the "market" in my opinion.

I think you point out that expectations are unrealistic. Let's face it, almost everything we buy new depreciates as soon as it's not new. Why should an expensive bike that isn't current tech be immune from that?

I probably have +/-$9,000 into my custom disc Bingham. BTLOS rims on DT240 hubs, 11s Dura Ace shifters and derailleurs, Praxis carbon cranks, Growtac brakes. I doubt it's worth half that as I don't see other halo Ti bikes with higher asking prices selling here. As El Chaba says, it's currently owned by the person who values it the most and who doesn't care what it would sell for. I probably couldn't get $1,000 for my Bob Jackson, with either the more modern drivetrain or the Nuovo Record in the drawer. I could care less - I rode it yesterday and love it every time. That particular bike I do care that it would find another owner some day who would value it and ride it, but that's pretty low on my list of concerns in life

[vespasianus]

Originally Posted by NHAero

When you get your Kirk, I will be interested in your comparison between older and new steel (with the stainless steel Responsorium thrown into the mix as well). I don't expect that my 52 year old skinny tube 531 frame rides like a current steel bike.

I have steel, titanium, and carbon drop bar bikes, and enjoy them all immensely.

The key is to use modern components on the old bike - that way you are comparing the bike frame, not necessarily the components.

They ride different that is for sure but in no way is the old bike a terrible or scary ride.

[El Chaba]

I think that the value of vintage steel bikes will increase in the future. Not that it won’t continue to be a force in the future, I think the market has largely already factored in the “aging out factor”. The pendulum always swings…never quite as much as the previous swing, but absent outside forces back and forth until it rests at the center. Right now the value is low as the category no longer resembles what is being produced in the greatest numbers by the big companies dominating the industry. As everything currently looks the same the market desiring something different will grow. The great ride quality of good steel bikes is such an under appreciated characteristic….and a characteristic that is no doubt one that would benefit a vast majority of enthusiasts far more than a 2 watt savings at 30 mph by routing the cables through every imaginable hollow space on the bike.

[NHAero]

Originally Posted by vespasianus

The key is to use modern components on the old bike - that way you are comparing the bike frame, not necessarily the components.

They ride different that is for sure but in no way is the old bike a terrible or scary ride.

No argument!

In the past year I set my Bob Jackson up with the early 70s Campy components but the reality is that it's not as fun (for me) to ride so I switched back. At one point I had clipless pedals and STI shifting but these days I run it with Campy Super record track pedals and toe clips and straps so I can ride in normal shoes, and I switched back to barcons just because. And I'm riding those in friction as I get prepared for Cino in September. I also put some more modern wider ID wheels on to let the 700Cx32 tires plump out to 32mm.

It's quite far from a terrible or scary ride!

[gravelreformist]

Originally Posted by rounder

I do not know more than anyone else here, but to me it is about planned obsolescence by the bike manufacturers.

We have a refrigerator that is about 30 years old, my wife loves her dishwasher and washer that are both about 15 years old and pays money to keep them working. We try to keep our cars for about 10 years. I love my steel bikes and did searches to find good components that would go with them. We like our appliances that still work and the bikes.

To me, bike companies do not want everyone riding old bikes. They are in the business to sell bikes. They would rather see us riding new (their) bikes every 5 years or so and then buy a new one for the new technology. That is how they make money. It seems like they would like for us to ride the new bike until something even newer comes out so it can be replaced by the newest and greatest.

I mean this seems rather self-evident that for profit companies need people to continue to buy their product in order to remain viable. How does this have a practical effect on you personally, though? My experience is that high-end bikes have, and continue to have, an extremely long useful lifespan. Effectively unlimited if maintained. I don't see manufacturers doing anything to limit the life of their products. Eventually what happens is that all of those marginal gains add up and a decade-on or so new bikes offer some meaningful improvements.

And this is ultimately why I don't ride my vintage steel bikes other than for special occasions anymore. Modern bikes do ride and shift better - even if vintage bikes still ride great. The ability to have a road bike that is just as fast on 32mm tires at 55psi as my steel bike that can only clear 25's at 90psi means I'm more comfortable everywhere - and paired with disc brakes - means that bike can also comfortably and confidently take on a lot of gravel roads where 25's might get by, but it won't be pleasant.

I guess that's also why the comment above on balance doesn't resonate with me. If anything the industry has moved towards a more balanced view of how people actually ride their bikes vs. from the 80's and 90's where bikes were designed for pavement or dirt, but rarely was one bike well balanced for both.

[m_sasso]

Originally Posted by charliedid

And the tubing and handlebars and the saddle and the tire clearance and if I'm tooling around on a bike like this it's decades old.

Ever wonder why Volvo doesn't still make a 240 DL? ;-)

Who buys these things?

I will have one of these please!

https://classicmotorsports.com/artic...eid=ca88f32e6b