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shinomaster
03-30-2006, 08:11 PM
Should I be worried about the Bird Flu? I haven't watched the national news much since Bush has been in Office, so that means I have been "ignant" for quite some time.. I haven't been following this whole bird flu thing, so I'm not sure why I should be so scared. The local news, always a good source for sensational yellow journalism, seems to think that it's inevitable.
Why is the bird flu so dangerous? Why is it different than other flu's? The scary thing is that I watched a documentary a few years abou about the great Influenza outbreak in the 1920's and is was no joke. Bodies were piling up in the streets and being buried in mass graves. Millions died. Should I go steal some Tamaflu from Rite :confused: aid?

e-RICHIE
03-30-2006, 08:21 PM
Should I be worried about the Bird Flu? I haven't wantched the news much since Bush has been in Office, so that means I have been "ignant" for quite some time.. I haven't been following this whole bird flu thing, so I'm not sure why I should be so scared. The local news, always a good source for sensational yellow journalism, seems to think that it's inevitable.
Why is the bird flu so dangerous? Why is it different than other flu's? The scary thing is that I watched a documentary a few years abou about the great Influenza outbreak in the 1920's and is was no joke. Bodies were piling up in the streets and being buried in mass graves. Millions died. Should I go steal some Tamaflu from Rite :confused: aid?


forget the bird stuff and dying;
the odds are worse if you hang
with cheney. hey - i'm kidding.

Chief
03-30-2006, 08:24 PM
Cheer up things could be a lot worse. :banana:

Sandy
03-30-2006, 08:40 PM
I was just thinking that, but I didn't post it.

Your answers to my questions about rotating weight were excellent and appreciated. I think that you really showed how unimportant rotating weight is in the total force needed to propel the bke, even more so for a heavy (but very handsome) rider. Thanks for imparting some of your vast knowledge.

Shino, I am sorry for straying form your original post, but Chief is one smart dude, or should I say indian!


Still in the third grade,


Sandy

e-RICHIE
03-30-2006, 08:42 PM
atmo rotating weight has soul

Samster
03-30-2006, 08:43 PM
Why is the bird flu so dangerous?

because it can kill you. it's no joke from what my dr. friends say...

Sandy
03-30-2006, 08:48 PM
It can kill a great number of people and some experts think that it will. It is a genuine world wide problem.


Sandy

aminadab
03-30-2006, 09:11 PM
I only got scared when I found out Don Rumsfeld's stock in the "vacine" went up. I just went out and got a freerange organic chicken -- wish me luck.

Fixed
03-30-2006, 09:16 PM
bro we all live with the promise of death everyday i.m.h.o.

sellsworth
03-30-2006, 09:46 PM
Should you worried about bird flu? Well it's a big roll of the dice ....

Based on current statistics influenza strain H5N1 (aka bird flu) is about 50% lethal. This is based on about 180 people world-wide who have been stricken with it. So far we are lucky that it is not transmissible from human to human - this is the concern. If a mutation occurs by chance in a strain of H5N1 that enables human to human transmission then we could have a pandemic. Just like HIV H5N1 is an RNA virus - meaning that it uses RNA rather than DNA for its genetic information. This is why these viruses evolve so quickly. RNA mutates at a higher rate because when it is copied by RNA polymerase there is no checking or correction of newly copied nucleotide sequence, unlike DNA polymerase which has a checking and correction system.

The 1918 pandemic that killed at least 50 million people world-wide was caused by H1N1, a close "cousin" of H5N1. This pandemic was called "Spanish flu" even though it probably started in Kansas of all places. I highly recommend that you read The Great Influenza by John Barry - an excellent overview of the issue.

vaxn8r
03-30-2006, 10:08 PM
One man's view:

Bird Flu so far is not contagious between people. Only from birds to people and so far birds to bird handlers. The real problem would arise if the virus mutated to the point people could pass it between them. This has never been documented so far.

The reason it would be so deadly is because it is so foreign to anything our immune system has seen. With regular "flu", the virus mutates so slowly that even though we can catch it every year, it isn't so vastly different from what we've immunologically "seen" before. With regular flu only the very young, old, or weak will die. With bird flu, the helathier you are the more at risk, because you'll mount an even bigger or healthier immune reponse, creating more symptoms. In other words, our own hyper response to the virus could kill us.

Should we vaccinate or take Tamiflu? Maybe, but there is no evidence that either will work. What if they partially work? We could end up with people who are partially immune, who ought to be quarantined in bed, now maybe well enough to be up and around "sharing", thus accelerating the spread around their communities. The death rate may or may not be better for the individual, but it could very likely be worse for the population as a whole.

Not to mention there is a limited supply of the drug. Should it be hoarded? Tamiflu probably just gives us a false sense of security. But even if it does sort of work, and we could store enough for each of us and our families (which there just is not enough to go around, so it's a theoretical question) where do we stop? I mean shouldn't we also hoard food, gasoline, heating oil and water, other medications? Seems to me if the disease is as bad as predicted Tamiflu is just not going to get you very far on it's own.

BTW, what ever happened to the threat of the West Nile Virus plague which was sweeping the country?

Lincoln
03-31-2006, 12:19 AM
<SNIP>
BTW, what ever happened to the threat of the West Nile Virus plague which was sweeping the country?

I think the killer bees got to it.

wasfast
03-31-2006, 02:17 AM
Despite all the warnings about this strain, it sounds like it's a ways off (years) in terms of mutation etc before it's a large issue. Am I deluded in this timeline?

gasman
03-31-2006, 02:37 AM
The H5N1 strain has to bind to surface proteins that are present on cells only deep in your lungs-which is why the only people infected so far have been raising and living around birds a lot.The virus needs to bind to the cells in your body to start an infection.
Most other flu viruses bind to cell surface proteins in your mouth and throat and thus are much more contaigeous because they spread in the air so when an infected person coughs they easily spread the virus. If the bird flu changes it's surface binding proteins to be able to bind to our throat and mouth then you have to start to worry. Nobody knows when this will happen. There are about three influenza pandemics per century worldwide so we can expect to get another pandemic in the next decade or two. I think the last flu epidemic was in '72 or so but I'm not sure.
So don't worry, go ride your bike.

William
03-31-2006, 04:36 AM
I knew all the epidemiology, biology, zoology, and genetics courses I took in college would come in handy one day....I understood everything you all wrote. ;)

At this point there just isn't much the individual can do about it except worry, and that won't help you either. Go on with your life and stay abreast of the news. :beer:


William

Tom
03-31-2006, 04:57 AM
People were dying, they tested them, they found antibodies to the virus, they said "Holy Crap, this kills everybody".

Then they started testing live people, even ones that never thought they had it and found antibodies to the virus. Maybe it doesn't kill everybody.

As somebody said, if the thing mutates to where people can transmit it easily it'll either be (1) more deadly, (2) less deadly, or (3) the same. It's very difficult to tell what'll happen.

Me, I don't worry. **** happens. I'd be slightly annoyed if all the humans died because of something we obviously did to ourselves, but if nature takes its course is it necessarily a bad thing?

catulle
03-31-2006, 05:00 AM
Should we march?

William
03-31-2006, 05:12 AM
http://danielboonecountry.com/images/sanders.jpg

Now just HOLD on a cotton pickin minute!!! You all need to brush up on your science!! It's a known fact that my special recipe sterilizes our chicken AND gives it that tangy taste.


The Colonel

catulle
03-31-2006, 05:16 AM
Now, if we really want to get rid of the threat, we must release him:

Too Tall
03-31-2006, 06:23 AM
(Sigh) Catulle you are one way out there dewd and I give you credit for a completely random R. Crumb reference....made my day.

So, OK you are worried about a pandemic? Exactly what will that get you and how might you deal with it? Please, PLEASE stick your head in the sand and when you come back to your senses clean your bike chain and go for a ride. Everything is OTAY.

MadRocketSci
03-31-2006, 01:17 PM
***SNEEZE***

yeah, but how long before it mutates into a computer virus and gets spread over the internet? Do we need to start stocking up on Norton?

(was in Guangzhou a couple weeks ago, and wandered through the live animal markets...mmm, scorpions)

If the bird flu changes it's surface binding proteins to be able to bind to our throat and mouth then you have to start to worry. Nobody knows when this will happen. There are about three influenza pandemics per century worldwide so we can expect to get another pandemic in the next decade or two. I think the last flu epidemic was in '72 or so but I'm not sure.
So don't worry, go ride your bike.

Dekonick
03-31-2006, 04:10 PM
How much of a risk is H5N1? That depends. It could mutate (or another virus) anytime. What is a little frightening about this strain is the cytokine storm that seems to occur in healthy individuals. The more healthy you are the worse the potential outcome.

Worry? Nah - you can't do anything about it. If it occurs, it will take months (at a minimum) before it runs it's course...

You can do a few simple things for your loved one's...

get a 6 month supply of prescription medications that you MUST have -
Have a little spare food around (nothing fancy - heck go get a Costco size case of pasta and sauce + a bag of rice...H2O,... cheap and will hold you over for a long time - remember the Y2K bug that hit?!?..or didn't....

You should really have the above (minus the 6mo scrip supply) anyway - as a natural disaster can strike anytime.

A bigger concern is for the bird farmers on the Eastern Shore around here... this could cripple MD's (and elsewhere) poultry industry.

Remember this:

When unsure, when in doubt
Run in circles, SCREAM AND SHOUT! :banana:

Fixed
03-31-2006, 05:45 PM
bro all this talk of death from a butch of bros who climb on the bikes every chance we get ... bro the way i see it you are more likely to get creamed on your bike than by a bird . cheers

Frankwurst
03-31-2006, 06:24 PM
bro all this talk of death from a butch of bros who climb on the bikes every chance we get ... bro the way i see it you are more likely to get creamed on your bike than by a bird . cheers
Right on. I'm more concerned about the truck or car that's bearing down on me... until I get the uncontrolable urge to s**t on their windshield...Then I will concern myself with bird flu. I try not to concern myself with death when there is so much in life to concern myself with. Like my brother always says "Don't sweat the small stuff and you'll realize most stuff is small" :beer:

Bill Bove
03-31-2006, 06:42 PM
A bird crapped on my arm while I was riding two weeks ago, I came down with a cold the next day. Did I have the bird flu :confused:

Frankwurst
03-31-2006, 06:48 PM
A bird crapped on my arm while I was riding two weeks ago, I came down with a cold the next day. Did I have the bird flu :confused:
I'm not a doctor but I think you had a cold. :beer:

shinomaster
04-01-2006, 12:44 AM
Thanks to all for the very helpfull information. I'll just wait for it to mutate and keep eating charcoal chicken bowls at the Saigon kitchen.

oracle
04-01-2006, 01:01 AM
http://www.goveg.com/f-hiddenliveschickens.asp

mad cow is old skool, yo......

shinomaster
04-01-2006, 12:21 PM
Damn you Oracle...do soybean plants feel pain too?