Speaking of dying....

shinomaster · #1 03-30-2006, 09:11 PM

Should I be worried about the Bird Flu? I haven't watched the national news much since Bush has been in Office, so that means I have been "ignant" for quite some time.. I haven't been following this whole bird flu thing, so I'm not sure why I should be so scared. The local news, always a good source for sensational yellow journalism, seems to think that it's inevitable.
Why is the bird flu so dangerous? Why is it different than other flu's? The scary thing is that I watched a documentary a few years abou about the great Influenza outbreak in the 1920's and is was no joke. Bodies were piling up in the streets and being buried in mass graves. Millions died. Should I go steal some Tamaflu from Rite

aid?

e-RICHIE · #2 03-30-2006, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shinomaster

Should I be worried about the Bird Flu? I haven't wantched the news much since Bush has been in Office, so that means I have been "ignant" for quite some time.. I haven't been following this whole bird flu thing, so I'm not sure why I should be so scared. The local news, always a good source for sensational yellow journalism, seems to think that it's inevitable.
Why is the bird flu so dangerous? Why is it different than other flu's? The scary thing is that I watched a documentary a few years abou about the great Influenza outbreak in the 1920's and is was no joke. Bodies were piling up in the streets and being buried in mass graves. Millions died. Should I go steal some Tamaflu from Rite

aid?

forget the bird stuff and dying;
the odds are worse if you hang
with cheney. hey - i'm kidding.

Chief · #3 03-30-2006, 09:24 PM

Cheer up things could be a lot worse.

Sandy · #4 03-30-2006, 09:40 PM

I was just thinking that, but I didn't post it.

Your answers to my questions about rotating weight were excellent and appreciated. I think that you really showed how unimportant rotating weight is in the total force needed to propel the bke, even more so for a heavy (but very handsome) rider. Thanks for imparting some of your vast knowledge.

Shino, I am sorry for straying form your original post, but Chief is one smart dude, or should I say indian!

Still in the third grade,

Sandy

e-RICHIE · #5 03-30-2006, 09:42 PM

atmo rotating weight has soul

Samster · #6 03-30-2006, 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shinomaster

Why is the bird flu so dangerous?

because it can kill you. it's no joke from what my dr. friends say...

Sandy · #7 03-30-2006, 09:48 PM

It can kill a great number of people and some experts think that it will. It is a genuine world wide problem.

Sandy

aminadab · #8 03-30-2006, 10:11 PM

I only got scared when I found out Don Rumsfeld's stock in the "vacine" went up. I just went out and got a freerange organic chicken -- wish me luck.

Fixed · #9 03-30-2006, 10:16 PM

bro we all live with the promise of death everyday i.m.h.o.

sellsworth · #10 03-30-2006, 10:46 PM

Should you worried about bird flu? Well it's a big roll of the dice ....

Based on current statistics influenza strain H5N1 (aka bird flu) is about 50% lethal. This is based on about 180 people world-wide who have been stricken with it. So far we are lucky that it is not transmissible from human to human - this is the concern. If a mutation occurs by chance in a strain of H5N1 that enables human to human transmission then we could have a pandemic. Just like HIV H5N1 is an RNA virus - meaning that it uses RNA rather than DNA for its genetic information. This is why these viruses evolve so quickly. RNA mutates at a higher rate because when it is copied by RNA polymerase there is no checking or correction of newly copied nucleotide sequence, unlike DNA polymerase which has a checking and correction system.

The 1918 pandemic that killed at least 50 million people world-wide was caused by H1N1, a close "cousin" of H5N1. This pandemic was called "Spanish flu" even though it probably started in Kansas of all places. I highly recommend that you read The Great Influenza by John Barry - an excellent overview of the issue.

vaxn8r · #11 03-30-2006, 11:08 PM

One man's view:

Bird Flu so far is not contagious between people. Only from birds to people and so far birds to bird handlers. The real problem would arise if the virus mutated to the point people could pass it between them. This has never been documented so far.

The reason it would be so deadly is because it is so foreign to anything our immune system has seen. With regular "flu", the virus mutates so slowly that even though we can catch it every year, it isn't so vastly different from what we've immunologically "seen" before. With regular flu only the very young, old, or weak will die. With bird flu, the helathier you are the more at risk, because you'll mount an even bigger or healthier immune reponse, creating more symptoms. In other words, our own hyper response to the virus could kill us.

Should we vaccinate or take Tamiflu? Maybe, but there is no evidence that either will work. What if they partially work? We could end up with people who are partially immune, who ought to be quarantined in bed, now maybe well enough to be up and around "sharing", thus accelerating the spread around their communities. The death rate may or may not be better for the individual, but it could very likely be worse for the population as a whole.

Not to mention there is a limited supply of the drug. Should it be hoarded? Tamiflu probably just gives us a false sense of security. But even if it does sort of work, and we could store enough for each of us and our families (which there just is not enough to go around, so it's a theoretical question) where do we stop? I mean shouldn't we also hoard food, gasoline, heating oil and water, other medications? Seems to me if the disease is as bad as predicted Tamiflu is just not going to get you very far on it's own.

BTW, what ever happened to the threat of the West Nile Virus plague which was sweeping the country?

Lincoln · #12 03-31-2006, 01:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vaxn8r

<SNIP>
BTW, what ever happened to the threat of the West Nile Virus plague which was sweeping the country?

I think the killer bees got to it.

wasfast · #13 03-31-2006, 03:17 AM

Despite all the warnings about this strain, it sounds like it's a ways off (years) in terms of mutation etc before it's a large issue. Am I deluded in this timeline?

gasman · #14 03-31-2006, 03:37 AM

The H5N1 strain has to bind to surface proteins that are present on cells only deep in your lungs-which is why the only people infected so far have been raising and living around birds a lot.The virus needs to bind to the cells in your body to start an infection.
Most other flu viruses bind to cell surface proteins in your mouth and throat and thus are much more contaigeous because they spread in the air so when an infected person coughs they easily spread the virus. If the bird flu changes it's surface binding proteins to be able to bind to our throat and mouth then you have to start to worry. Nobody knows when this will happen. There are about three influenza pandemics per century worldwide so we can expect to get another pandemic in the next decade or two. I think the last flu epidemic was in '72 or so but I'm not sure.
So don't worry, go ride your bike.

William · #15 03-31-2006, 05:36 AM

I knew all the epidemiology, biology, zoology, and genetics courses I took in college would come in handy one day....I understood everything you all wrote.

At this point there just isn't much the individual can do about it except worry, and that won't help you either. Go on with your life and stay abreast of the news.

William