Scared to look up my mutual funds

[SoCalSteve]

Im sooo thinking of cashing out my IRA (taking the penalty) and buying a mobile home in the area that I want to retire in with the cash out.

Good idea? Or????

Steve

[Enigma]

Dollar Cost Averaging.
Buy low, sell high.
It is not the time to cash out if the market is tanking. It'll come back.
Settle down.

[Richard]

Imagine privatized social security on top of this!!

[xlbs]

for those who wait...I manage several millions of dollars of clients' money...Selling now is not a good idea 'cause all it does is lock in your "losses".

Have a gander at this site and ask yourself one simple question, does it go up more than down?! Yes, it does...

When should a person buy? When the graph slopes to the right. What is the graph doing right now?!!

www.andexcharts.com/

[Sandy]

I own some funds, a few stocks, have some cash, and a large position in one stock. I am not diversified much because of such a large position in the one stock. I am amazed at how much my funds and stocks have come down. I have been thinking of selling almost everything with the exception of the one position .I feel that we are going to have a major sell off one day, like 400-500 points, even from the level we are at. What is there to like in the market? A dollar that seems as if it will get even weaker, financials that have been beaten up and will probably go lower as a fuction of a different credit crunch- consumer and commercial deliquencies, gas at over $4/gallon which will proably go a lot higher because of fundamental world wide demand and some speculation, a possible Israel/Iran conflict, extremely high ongoing foreclosures, remarkable increase in grain/commodity prices, food costincreases of 30 percent in a year in some instnaces, possible foreign investors taking money out of the US market, increased personal bankruptrcies, dramatic decrease in home prices, layoffs from major and small business, airline carriers hardly able to stay alive, US auto Sales in June down significantly, with General Motors trading at 50 year lows and some predicting possible bakruptcy, increased unemployment, Fed moves not seemingly very productive, an established bear market, Social Security under funded by a zillion dollars,......and the list goes on.

It will get better, but it may get a lot worse before it gets better and it will take some time before it does get better, no matter what happens, I think.


Sad Sandy

[RPS]

Originally Posted by Richard

Imagine privatized social security on top of this!!

Indirectly, isn't it all privatized anyway?
Where else are the trillions coming from?

Originally Posted by Sandy

I own some funds, a few stocks, have some cash, and a large position in one stock. I am not diversified much because of such a large position in the one stock. I am amazed at how much my funds and stocks have come down. I have been thinking of selling almost everything with the exception of the one position .I feel that we are going to have a major sell off one day, like 400-500 points, even from the level we are at. What is there to like in the market? A dollar that seems as if it will get even weaker, financials that have been beaten up and will probably go lower as a fuction of a different credit crunch- consumer and commercial deliquencies, gas at over $4/gallon which will proably go a lot higher because of fundamental world wide demand and some speculation, a possible Israel/Iran conflict, extremely high ongoing foreclosures, remarkable increase in grain/commodity prices, food costincreases of 30 percent in a year in some instnaces, possible foreign investors taking money out of the US market, increased personal bankruptrcies, dramatic decrease in home prices, layoffs from major and small business, airline carriers hardly able to stay alive, US auto Sales in June down significantly, with General Motors trading at 50 year lows and some predicting possible bakruptcy, increased unemployment, Fed moves not seemingly very productive, an established bear market, Social Security under funded by a zillion dollars,......and the list goes on.

It will get better, but it may get a lot worse before it gets better and it will take some time before it does get better, no matter what happens, I think.


Sad Sandy

I don't think the anchor has hit bottom yet. Then it's going to drag and set. It'll be a while before the ship sets sail again.

[Sandy]

Originally Posted by xlbs

for those who wait...I manage several millions of dollars of clients' money...Selling now is not a good idea 'cause all it does is lock in your "losses".

Have a gander at this site and ask yourself one simple question, does it go up more than down?! Yes, it does...

When should a person buy? When the graph slopes to the right. What is the graph doing right now?!!

www.andexcharts.com/

My knowedge compared to your is undoubtedly totally insignificant. I never paid attention to my investments in the past and did very poorly Now I am trying to pay more attention. Yes, you will lock in your losses, and one cannot predict when the market will turn up and stay up. I just think we have a ways to go on the downside yet.


Scared Sandy


Sandy

[Sandy]

Originally Posted by bike <3'er

I don't think the anchor has hit bottom yet. Then it's going to drag and set. It'll be a while before the ship sets sail again.

Agreed. Are you who I think you are?


Sandy

[Smiley]

Originally Posted by Sandy

Agreed. Are you who I think you are?


Sandy

what ? Milton Freidman ?

[RPS]

Originally Posted by xlbs

Have a gander at this site and ask yourself one simple question, does it go up more than down?! Yes, it does...

Most statements I see always have fine print to the effect of something like “past performance is not a guarantee of future returns”.

Why is that?

[BumpyintheBurgh]

Originally Posted by Smiley

Anybody else fear the reality of having to work longer then your projections.

You don't have to work any longer, it's just when you quit, you'll be poor and relying on the government to provide you with a social security check like a lot of folks do, struggling to make ends meet. Welcome to your Golden Years!

[1centaur]

As a professional money manager, I can't resist these threads, but that in no way makes me right, and I am not a stock manager.

Sandy's list of woes is right on - can we really have that litany of bad events and NOT have a serious recession? Are we in a serious recession now? Is the stock market down as much (in %) as it usually is even in a medium recession? Will the Fed have to raise rates in a weak economy having saved the banking system but needing the consumer to feel the pain in order to save the currency?

The good news is that there are only a few reserve currencies in the world, the Euro is already expensive and commodities (a way to flee the dollar) even more so. The Yen is not begging to be bought, so the dollar is set to rally...at some point. We have a good capitalist system with property rights and ways to make a fortune to a degree most countries lack, and that will attract investment. Our real estate is getting cheap and foreigners understand and like real estate and cheap currencies. Markets usually rally AFTER true capitulation to the pain, and I have not seen that yet. But good SYSTEMs get rewarded reliably, and ours is good (though higher taxes to come will be yet another hurdle for the market to get over - stocks may sell off more if capital gains taxes are set to go up a lot after November 4 (probably)).

BTW - if SS was privatized and everybody had to buy US Treasuries, the return would beat the return offered by the government's current IOU system, according to many projections for young people. The trick was funding the near term deficit, and there was no way around that from what I heard. We have many fiscal problems to overcome, and taxing the rich/middle class ever more may not be the way to solve them - the pain needs to be shared to discipline the politicians, or those who don't pay will choose to spend money they don't have.

My best guess, made today to a fellow investment professional, is that the Dow needs to be under 10,000 to be even close to capitulation. I don't think stocks are all that cheap. I think investment returns in general will be low for a couple of years, though perhaps not as low as SS implied returns. There will be a time to buy - it will be a scarier time than this, IMO. For now, the returns on cash don't look that far off the returns on stocks if stocks do better than I expect. Individual stocks will, of course, always have big winners. Overseas markets are more accessible than ever and worth some asset allocation by US investors, but I think there needs to be a shakeout in those markets too.

Originally Posted by 1centaur

As a professional money manager, I can't resist these threads, but that in no way makes me right, and I am not a stock manager.

Sandy's list of woes is right on - can we really have that litany of bad events and NOT have a serious recession? Are we in a serious recession now? Is the stock market down as much (in %) as it usually is even in a medium recession? Will the Fed have to raise rates in a weak economy having saved the banking system but needing the consumer to feel the pain in order to save the currency?

The good news is that there are only a few reserve currencies in the world, the Euro is already expensive and commodities (a way to flee the dollar) even more so. The Yen is not begging to be bought, so the dollar is set to rally...at some point. We have a good capitalist system with property rights and ways to make a fortune to a degree most countries lack, and that will attract investment. Our real estate is getting cheap and foreigners understand and like real estate and cheap currencies. Markets usually rally AFTER true capitulation to the pain, and I have not seen that yet. But good SYSTEMs get rewarded reliably, and ours is good (though higher taxes to come will be yet another hurdle for the market to get over - stocks may sell off more if capital gains taxes are set to go up a lot after November 4 (probably)).

BTW - if SS was privatized and everybody had to buy US Treasuries, the return would beat the return offered by the government's current IOU system, according to many projections for young people. The trick was funding the near term deficit, and there was no way around that from what I heard. We have many fiscal problems to overcome, and taxing the rich/middle class ever more may not be the way to solve them - the pain needs to be shared to discipline the politicians, or those who don't pay will choose to spend money they don't have.

My best guess, made today to a fellow investment professional, is that the Dow needs to be under 10,000 to be even close to capitulation. I don't think stocks are all that cheap. I think investment returns in general will be low for a couple of years, though perhaps not as low as SS implied returns. There will be a time to buy - it will be a scarier time than this, IMO. For now, the returns on cash don't look that far off the returns on stocks if stocks do better than I expect. Individual stocks will, of course, always have big winners. Overseas markets are more accessible than ever and worth some asset allocation by US investors, but I think there needs to be a shakeout in those markets too.

When E.F. 1Centaur talks, people listen.

I always enjoy your insight, perspective and advice.

[RPS]

Originally Posted by 1centaur

But good SYSTEMs get rewarded reliably, and ours is good (though higher taxes to come will be yet another hurdle for the market to get over - stocks may sell off more if capital gains taxes are set to go up a lot after November 4 (probably)).

Thanks for your excellent insight.

Just wondering, how much of the expected capital gains increase do you think the market has priced in already anticipating "that" candidate will win?