Cancellara Motor Doping

[FlashUNC]

Originally Posted by r_mutt

Fabs has both hands on the tops of his bars with Leukemans behind. He reaches with his rt hand to his shifter and it's clearly not a shift. what is that? who does that on the cobbles? the only reason to do that movement is if you are shifting and he is not shifting there. I've raced for over 10 years and I would never do that unless I was shifting. I'm not comparing myself to Fabian, but what exactly is he doing? i don't buy the random oxygen deficit explanation movement because anyone under severe oxygen deficit is not going to make any unnecessary movements at all- full stop.

So you never shift your hands around momentarily to just take the pressure off for a second and go back to the position and get on with it?

Again, the motor conspiracy theory combines all the elements of he's scheming and conniving and at the same time dumb as a rock. When, absent any real evidence other than "he moved his hand" there are explanations that are far more plausible.

Did he use a motor when he won gold in the TT? Or beat the brakes off Sagan up the Paterberg? Or in that blistering MSR attack in 2014 (or 2015, I forget). He has a body of work that suggests he's quite the motor all on his own.

[r_mutt]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

So you never shift your hands around momentarily to just take the pressure off for a second and go back to the position and get on with it?

there is no doubt that Cancallera had one of the top engines of his time. there is not doubt about that. let it be said that that has never stopped anyone from looking for an advantage. one only has to look at the pantheon of top riders in history who have either been caught or admitted to cheating.

as for taking my hand off a bar to take pressure, Fabs style was a funny way of doing it. one would think that he would take both hands off the bars or at least one at a time and place them on the shifters for a few moments, but just one hand? and only for a moment while he makes a strange movement with it? even someone who believes there is no foul play has to admit that it was a strange action.

the motor conspiracy theory has already been proven- once recently in an amateur race in France, and another Pro Women's CX race. There have been plenty of rumors about it swirling. Are you denying that it has existed, or are you just saying that Fabian would never do such a thing? The past history of cycling has proven that cycling is rife with cheaters-even by the giants of the sport. I wouldn't be surprised in the least bit if it has happened -even by my favored riders. I don't expect virtue from professional athletes of any sport.

[chiasticon]

I gotta see this hand movement... video? it can't be that thing you posted on page two, right? barely moves his right hand to shift there. both hands are on the hoods and just wiggles his right hand. surely that's not the smoking gun...?

[FlashUNC]

Originally Posted by chiasticon

I gotta see this hand movement... video? it can't be that thing you posted on page two, right? barely moves his right hand to shift there. both hands are on the hoods and just wiggles his right hand. surely that's not the smoking gun...?

It is for the motor wingnuts.

[wildboar]

Originally Posted by 19wisconsin64

If you watch the videos of the instances where a big gap quickly opened up it looks like the competitors were either extremely tired or not wanting to take up the chase. Most to the time they sort of sat up a little. I can't imagine how difficult it is to try to catch up to a world-class time trial specialist who speeds up to "do their thing" many kilometers from the finish.

You don't get extremely tired if you change to a fresh bike often enough, just like the pony express!

another video of some competitiors looking "extremely tired":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGwSBiHstSQ

[johnniecakes]

So the latest "evidence" is that a World Champion towards the end of a cycling monument that is over 6 hours long moves his hand in a way that I don't understand proves he has a motor. Really ??

[r_mutt]

the latest evidence has been out there since 2010. here's the video from 2010 starting from the odd hand movement.

https://youtu.be/8Nd13ARuvVE?t=4m18s


I don't want to debate this any longer. I think it's highly suspect, that's all. If anyone looks at the video and says with complete certainty that there isn't something odd going on, well, then that's your opinion and perhaps you also think no one cheats in cycling- especially not Fabian. if I had a gun to my head, I'd say he had a motor, but, no one can be certain about anything.

[johnniecakes]

Originally Posted by r_mutt

the latest evidence has been out there since 2010. here's the video from 2010 starting from the odd hand movement.

https://youtu.be/8Nd13ARuvVE?t=4m18s


I don't want to debate this any longer. I think it's highly suspect, that's all. If anyone looks at the video and says with complete certainty that there isn't something odd going on, well, then that's your opinion and perhaps you also think no one cheats in cycling- especially not Fabian. if I had a gun to my head, I'd say he had a motor, but, no one can be certain about anything.

I am certainly not naïve enough to think there is no cheating in cycling or sports in general. Just as everyone who goes to college never gets any help with papers or thesis's etc... But to slander someone with a clean history just seems wrong to me. I was always taught to "put up or shut up". Unless you got something that can be proven just go away.

[chiasticon]

Originally Posted by r_mutt

if I had a gun to my head, I'd say he had a motor, but, no one can be certain about anything.

based on grainy video footage, I would say he was shifting.

but I honestly don't care. there's been cheating in cycling. there will be cheating in cycling. maybe by him, maybe not.

but this "evidence" is anything but, to me.

[simonov]

It sure looks like he was shifting right where that clip is cued up. In slo-mo you can see a thin black object appear right behind his brake blade right as he makes that move with his hand. That's the double-tap shift lever being pressed as he changes gears.

[MattTuck]

Originally Posted by johnniecakes

So the latest "evidence" is that a World Champion towards the end of a cycling monument that is over 6 hours long moves his hand in a way that I don't understand proves he has a motor. Really ??

I find this whole thing fascinating from a decision making perspective.

I suspect that there are 3 major things going on for people who think he used a motor.

1. ) I think that it is actually a simple example of deductive reasoning. All dominant performances in cycling are the result of cheating. We are observing a dominant performance by FC, therefore FC was cheating.

2.) A conscious (or subconscious) tendency to adjust their perceived base rate of cheating in cycling very high, such that almost no piece of evidence would convince them that cheating did not occur.

3.) A bunch of well known cognitive biases such as confirmation bias and availability bias that shape the way humans interpret and weight evidence.


Based on the history of the sport, I can't really fault people for #1 and #2. It isn't that hard to become jaded about cheating in cycling. I still think there are issues with the logic that would lead one to believe this is a case of a motor in the bike, but I can understand (not agree with) where part of that belief comes from.

[FlashUNC]

Originally Posted by MattTuck

I find this whole thing fascinating from a decision making perspective.

I suspect that there are 3 major things going on for people who think he used a motor.

1. ) I think that it is actually a simple example of deductive reasoning. All dominant performances in cycling are the result of cheating. We are observing a dominant performance by FC, therefore FC was cheating.

2.) A conscious (or subconscious) tendency to adjust their perceived base rate of cheating in cycling very high, such that almost no piece of evidence would convince them that cheating did not occur.

3.) A bunch of well known cognitive biases such as confirmation bias and availability bias that shape the way humans interpret and weight evidence.


Based on the history of the sport, I can't really fault people for #1 and #2. It isn't that hard to become jaded about cheating in cycling. I still think there are issues with the logic that would lead one to believe this is a case of a motor in the bike, but I can understand (not agree with) where part of that belief comes from.

I have no doubt he was doped to the gills. But so's everyone else. Its like watching what Gilbert did in the Ardennes a couple years back, or Van Avamaert this year and arguing they're riding electric mopeds. Its a weird way to point out singular performances of elite (and still probably doped) athletes.

[oldpotatoe]

Cancellara's response..

http://www.velonews.com/2017/11/news...usation_451974

[happycampyer]

For years, Lance Armstrong denied that he was doping, and for years, many people believed him (and even after his admission, some people probably still believe that he was clean). I agree with Gaimon that Cacellara's acceleration looks unnatural, as did LA's acceleration up Luz Ardiden. Cancellara pulls away from Boonen like he's some kind of age grouper who got caught out on the course. But it's just as likely that Cancellara's drug program was peaking perfectly that day (or he had a fresh transfusion), and Boonen's was not. The allegation that pros had motors in their bikes was popularized by that crackpot Greg LeMond—but wait, it seems that many of LeMond's hair-brained accusations have turned out to be true. The fact that a women's pro cross racer was caught with a motor shows that this isn't just some crackpot theory—it is possible. The 60 Minutes segment has certainly fanned the flames.

I didn't read Gaimon's comment necessarily as an accusation that Cancellara had a motor, just that the acceleration looked unnatural. To me at least, the phrase "That f—er probably did have a motor!" is written in such a way as to suggest that Gaimon didn't believe the motor theory, as in "His acceleration looks totally unnatural. I have no way of knowing whether he was on anything, but his move sure is suspicious. Maybe those crackpots who think the pros were all using motors are right!"

Cancellara going after Gaimon for his offhand statement is like LA going after 60 Minutes for their expose on motors in cycling.

[unterhausen]

Originally Posted by simonov

It sure looks like he was shifting right where that clip is cued up. In slo-mo you can see a thin black object appear right behind his brake blade right as he makes that move with his hand. That's the double-tap shift lever being pressed as he changes gears.

this post made me feel like an idiot for thinking those hand movements were weird all these years. The hand motion to press a button would not require significant movement of the fingers. In the flanders video in particular, there is movement of his fingers that makes no sense if he was pushing a button. What is it, a re-purposed hands-free sensor from a bathroom faucet?