Tour de France *LIVE* *SPOILERS*

[FlashUNC]

Originally Posted by galgal

That is a distinct possibility for sure. In the Giro though, you had Froome and Dumoulin doing the attacking. If JA hangs on to yellow, it will be because there wasn't a rider/team strong enough to totally crack him. But yeah, stage 18 is probably going to be too much. Unless, the other contenders struggle as well.
He did lead by 1'26" going into the Pyrenees and came out leading by 1'35", despite making a costly tactical error.

Sure, but now you've got Ineos, Jumbo, and FDJ with guys all within 2 minutes of the top step. It's not Froome and Dumoulin. Instead its Thomas and Bernal and Kruswijck and Pinot and each of those teams is better in the mountains at driving/controlling pace than Quick Step.

Bernal and Thomas alone is shades of Sastre/Schleck with Evans in 2008.

It'd be a lovely story if he makes it, but the third week of a Grand Tour is a grind both physical and mental that he's more or less going to have to do alone.

[Elefantino]

As much as an Alaphilippe win would be a feel-good French story, a Pinot win is more likely. At this moment he is the best climber in the world. Of course, we don't know how many matches he burned in the Pyrenees, but if he climbs the Alps as he did this past weekend, he will win in Paris.

And France will implode.

[galgal]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

Sure, but now you've got Ineos, Jumbo, and FDJ with guys all within 2 minutes of the top step. It's not Froome and Dumoulin. Instead its Thomas and Bernal and Kruswijck and Pinot and each of those teams is better in the mountains at driving/controlling pace than Quick Step.

Bernal and Thomas alone is shades of Sastre/Schleck with Evans in 2008.

It'd be a lovely story if he makes it, but the third week of a Grand Tour is a grind both physical and mental that he's more or less going to have to do alone.

All true, and I agree with you. Am just trying to argue for the lovely story scenario. Let's be honest, no one expected JA to be here, not even he did. He's gone from saying I'm lucid enough to know I'm not winning the tour to everyday is a bonus to I'm not giving up the jersey without a fight.
As Jaybee suggested if he can hang on to Thomas, let FDJ wiith Pinot/Gaudu deal with Bernal, let Jumbo/Ineos do the pace making/chasing each other's contendors. In short, avoid complete meltdown and limit losses. He could lose 30" on each Alpine stage and win - barely
If he can't hold the wheel and cracks on Izoard, it's all over. I'm really hoping that doesn't happen. He sure as heck has surprised me so far.

[tony_mm]

The good thing is that Alaphilippe is really creating problems to the Sky/ Ineos tactics as Brailsford said in his interview!

Great to see that!

And that's racing! Don't always follow the winner's tactic but look for something different!

[tctyres]

IMO, he'll hang onto yellow until the start of stage 18, and probably the end of it. His team can't support him. He didn't have a domestique to help on the way into or out of Foix. Meanwhile, Wout Poels gets on his wheel and rides him to the top of the climb. Ineos had 3 guys finish at that time or better. Ineos and Movistar are the strongest team-wise, but Movistar seems to have a team with 3 captains (Quintana, Landa, and Valverde ... Quintana is out).

On Stage 19, everything is open. Whoever climbs the best, wins. You have not seen two good consecutive climbing days out of Alaphilippe. He wins on the first day and hangs on for the second day. 3 consecutive days -- no way.

[FlashUNC]

Originally Posted by galgal

All true, and I agree with you. Am just trying to argue for the lovely story scenario. Let's be honest, no one expected JA to be here, not even he did. He's gone from saying I'm lucid enough to know I'm not winning the tour to everyday is a bonus to I'm not giving up the jersey without a fight.
As Jaybee suggested if he can hang on to Thomas, let FDJ wiith Pinot/Gaudu deal with Bernal, let Jumbo/Ineos do the pace making/chasing each other's contendors. In short, avoid complete meltdown and limit losses. He could lose 30" on each Alpine stage and win - barely
If he can't hold the wheel and cracks on Izoard, it's all over. I'm really hoping that doesn't happen. He sure as heck has surprised me so far.

If the Izoard is at the end of a one-week stage race or at the 200k marker of a one-day race, I think he does exactly that.

Where it sits in this race though....ugh....I just hope Julian doesn't get the fever dream idea he could win a Grand Tour. He should go dominate the Ardennes Classics and some hilly Monuments for the next decade.

[galgal]

Originally Posted by tctyres

IMO, he'll hang onto yellow until the start of stage 18, and probably the end of it. His team can't support him. He didn't have a domestique to help on the way into or out of Foix. Meanwhile, Wout Poels gets on his wheel and rides him to the top of the climb. Ineos had 3 guys finish at that time or better. Ineos and Movistar are the strongest team-wise, but Movistar seems to have a team with 3 captains (Quintana, Landa, and Valverde ... Quintana is out).

On Stage 19, everything is open. Whoever climbs the best, wins. You have not seen two good consecutive climbing days out of Alaphilippe. He wins on the first day and hangs on for the second day. 3 consecutive days -- no way.

Sure, agreed. And that was a bad mistake for JA to try and follow Pinot. If he had stayed with Thomas he would likely have lost less or no time to him.
He also doesn't need to win any of the 3 stages, just not blow up on any of them

[tctyres]

Originally Posted by galgal

Sure, agreed. And that was a bad mistake for JA to try and follow Pinot. If he had stayed with Thomas he would likely have lost less or no time to him.
He also doesn't need to win any of the 3 stages, just not blow up on any of them

Without domestiques, I think the odds of blowing up are close to 100%. His team can't climb.

[weisan]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

I just hope Julian doesn't get the fever dream idea he could win a Grand Tour.

If Fromme can do it, so can Ala-P!

[ultraman6970]

The tour is so weird this year.... Ineos only race is the tour, fdj wants the podium, movistar wants the podium but looks like the team classification is the one they are after, Jumbo did enough already and they want the podium aswell.

All of that said, IMO the only thing JA needs to do is just sit and let all the other's teams to kill to each other. Just dont pull, send guys ahead (that will happen a lot) as decoys and have JA at GT's and Bernal's wheel... the other teams will do the work, they wont let anybody to go too much and just play the waiting game, same in the climbs.

Is not JA race to lose IMO, is the other team's. Just to start they dont even have riders to support him, so if they lose the race (which will suck and it can happen) . I think quick step knows they got enough out of this race already with the team they sent. IMO they will lose it, the question is who will win it because after what ive seen even valverde who is still 5 mins behind still have some chances. Saying this because valverde has something the other riders dont have, consistency, no bad days in that rider.

[galgal]

Originally Posted by weisan

If Fromme can do it, so can Ala-P!

Good one! In that case, one can expect JA to look thoroughly pedestrian in the first two mountain stages, lose some time, then go on a solo breakaway on last stage and lap the field by 6 mins plus. Should be fun.

[denapista]

Everyone was expecting JA to have already lost the yellow jersey. If he can survive stage 18, he may be able to sneak this one out. Everyone is scrambling with JA throwing a huge wrench in the middle of it all..

Stages 18/19/20 are going to be where I think Alaphilippe will realize he's a one day race kind of guy.. He doesn't want these climbing problems!

[FlashUNC]

Originally Posted by weisan

If Fromme can do it, so can Ala-P!

I doubt Quick Step has the program that Ineos has for getting second tier African racers or pursuit track riders to Grand Tour winners.

[tony_mm]

Alaphilippe is the new Thomas Voeckler for the French!

They love him for the way he is racing. And in France the way you race is more important than being on the podium 2nd or 3rd! Look at Thomas Voecker, Richard Virenque, or even Warren Barguil. Alaphilippe is French and rides like the French.

Froome and Thomas are British. Big difference. Also in their choice concerning the team they belong.

I personally like the way Alaphilippe rides. Even if he will sometimes make mistakes. Always riding in the safest way is not road cycling for me. It is more about trying and attacking. And learning then from your mistakes. Not only ability playing safe with the powermeter data.

[sevencyclist]

I am predicting yellow jersey change on Stage 20, and that makes this edition the most exciting since 1989.