Tour de France *LIVE* *SPOILERS*

[OtayBW]

Originally Posted by weisan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWitZ3DIr2o

HAR!!!! UNREAL!!

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by martl

1 JULIAN ALAPHILIPPE 21 DECEUNINCK - QUICK - STEP 61h 00' 22''
2 GERAINT THOMAS 1 TEAM INEOS 61h 01' 57'' + 00h 01' 35''
3 STEVEN KRUIJSWIJK 81 TEAM JUMBO - VISMA 61h 02' 09'' + 00h 01' 47''
4 THIBAUT PINOT 51 GROUPAMA - FDJ 61h 02' 12'' + 00h 01' 50''
5 EGAN BERNAL 2 TEAM INEOS 61h 02' 24'' + 00h 02' 02''
6 EMANUEL BUCHMANN 12 BORA - HANSGROHE 61h 02' 36'' + 00h 02' 14''
7 MIKEL LANDA MEANA 65 MOVISTAR TEAM 61h 05' 16'' + 00h 04' 54''
8 ALEJANDRO VALVERDE 62 MOVISTAR TEAM 61h 05' 22'' + 00h 05' 00''
9 JAKOB FUGLSANG 71 ASTANA PRO TEAM 61h 05' 49'' + 00h 05' 27''


Amazing stuff, 6 riders within 2 minutes of each other, and the first two positions didn't look invulnerable, as much as i enjoy JAs panache.
Buchmann is possibly the biggest surprise there and no one seems to notice; he did make no mistake whatsoever so far and was the guy launching the attack that dropped Thomas on friday. Sometimes, its good to fly under the radar, he might be good for a major surprise.

What's noticeable for me is the lack of Quickstep team members on these climbs and the number of INeos, Moviestar, Jumbo team guys..the Quickstep guys need to Quickly Step....UP..and protect the Yellow jersey.

[BdaGhisallo]

Originally Posted by oldpotatoe

What's noticeable for me is the lack of Quickstep team members on these climbs and the number of INeos, Moviestar, Jumbo team guys..the Quickstep guys need to Quickly Step....UP..and protect the Yellow jersey.

I don't think DQS had any inkling that they would be defending Yellow at the end of the second week. When you see guys like Morkov and Viviani riding tempo in a mountain stage you know that DQS was completely unprepared for their current position.

[GregL]

Originally Posted by oldpotatoe

What's noticeable for me is the lack of Quickstep team members on these climbs and the number of INeos, Moviestar, Jumbo team guys..the Quickstep guys need to Quickly Step....UP..and protect the Yellow jersey.

QS didn't bring a team to support/protect a GC contender. They brought a "classics" team to hunt stages with Viviani and Alaphilippe. Lefevere hasn't had a grand tour contender for years, so this is somewhat uncharted territory for the team. I'm enjoying Alaphilippe's run, but think that the Alps will prove to be the end of his TdF dream (at least for this year).

Greg

[Jaybee]

Enric Mas is the only DQS rider that belongs in the selection on an Alpine climb, and he was quickly off the back on the first Cat1 yesterday. JA needs to pick one of GT or TP (prob GT) and follow that wheel like glue. It really sucks for him that 6 guys are still within 2:15- he can’t cover every attack so he will have to decide who is actually a threat and let Ineos and Jumbo cover the rest

[Lionel]

JA win would be awesome but he lacks a better team in the mountains. It's going to be hard in the Alps. But I hope he hangs on. Pinot looks good but I am not sure he has the mental strength and he does not like very hot temperatures and this is what is on the menu for this week. Would love to see a Hinault successor though, been too long.

[denapista]

I foresee Alaphilippe holding onto the jersey until stage 18. He'll hold onto it over the next rolling stage, but could possibly gain time if someone gets caught out in the winds. The Alp stages are going to be fireworks. If he had a 3min lead then I would say he could hold on, and he would just need to ride tempo and limit his losses. The tour is pretty damn good without Froome there to dominate/dictate the pace of the race.

[benb]

Originally Posted by ultraman6970

I do have to agree... when I saw him pulling i was just grabbing my head... "WTH are you doing!!!!"....

Hope he learn from that lesson because the next mountain stages are going to be to live or die. Valverde is chipping time from behind... uran did not look good today but who knows the next mountain stages...

Now the question, who is going to win this thing?? I cant tell, everybody looks the same, one bad day and game over...

I didn't see the whole stage but I thought JA was just forced into pulling cause everyone around him had no interest in helping him and would have just slowed down to keep him in front. That's what it looked like to me on the climbs where he looked like he was cracking. Looked like he was being hung out to dry by the guys around him.

This has been the most interesting/exciting tour for me in a really long time, I'm loving everything I've seen.

I don't think I realized just how boring the whole thing with Sky being so dominant for so long was. Either that or it's more the whole thing with the whole Armstrong -> Contador -> Froome thing being a succession of dynasties where one team was too dominant.

[FlashUNC]

Expect a Yates-in-the-Giro style detonation in the Alps for Alaphillipe. He's an incredible racer, but this ain't his bag. Thomas put 30 seconds into him over basically a 2k attack. How's he going to withstand three days of stuff solo when it isn't just Ineos but multiple teams are going to be hitting him like pack of feral dogs.

[galgal]

Originally Posted by Jaybee

Enric Mas is the only DQS rider that belongs in the selection on an Alpine climb, and he was quickly off the back on the first Cat1 yesterday. JA needs to pick one of GT or TP (prob GT) and follow that wheel like glue. It really sucks for him that 6 guys are still within 2:15- he can’t cover every attack so he will have to decide who is actually a threat and let Ineos and Jumbo cover the rest

^this. Damn, those Alpine stages are going to be brutal! Stage 18 has Vars, Izoard AND Galibier, OUCH! That is probably going to be decisive stage. If JA makes through that one in yellow, which is unlikely, he has a shot. 19 has the Iseran but is a shorter stage. Could it all be in play on the final long climb on Saturday! Another potentially disastrous consequence of not having team mates to help for JA would be if he were to have a mechanical it would be curtains.
Could Barguil be a wild card? If he has the legs he'll probably be hunting a stage win but could he be the one to help JA in a tough spot?

[Jaybee]

Originally Posted by galgal

^this. Damn, those Alpine stages are going to be brutal! Stage 18 has Vars, Izoard AND Galibier, OUCH! That is probably going to be decisive stage. If JA makes through that one in yellow, which is unlikely, he has a shot. 19 has the Iseran but is a shorter stage. Could it all be in play on the final long climb on Sunday! Another potentially disastrous consequence of not having team mates to help for JA would be if he were to have a mechanical it would be curtains.
Could Barguil be a wild card? If he has the legs he'll probably be hunting a stage win but could he be the one to help JA in a tough spot?

We see non-teammate Spaniards helping other Spaniards all the time in the Vuelta. Likewise for Italians/the Giro. It's been a while since the French have had the chance, but why not? Pinot has got his own podium to worry about, and may even have a chance to win, but Barguil and maybe Bardet could be helpful.

I think Stage 18 is probably just too much though.

[galgal]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

Expect a Yates-in-the-Giro style detonation in the Alps for Alaphillipe. He's an incredible racer, but this ain't his bag. Thomas put 30 seconds into him over basically a 2k attack. How's he going to withstand three days of stuff solo when it isn't just Ineos but multiple teams are going to be hitting him like pack of feral dogs.

That is a distinct possibility for sure. In the Giro though, you had Froome and Dumoulin doing the attacking. If JA hangs on to yellow, it will be because there wasn't a rider/team strong enough to totally crack him. But yeah, stage 18 is probably going to be too much. Unless, the other contenders struggle as well.
He did lead by 1'26" going into the Pyrenees and came out leading by 1'35", despite making a costly tactical error.

[m4rk540]

The predictions of the tactical challenge of stage 18 are predicated on distance or elevation? Stage 14 was only 117 km but the Tourmalet is harder than any climb on Stage 18. Also, Galibier at 5.1% seems more suited to JA. Finally, the stage ends with a descent where a "classics" rider could gain back 10-15 seconds.

[galgal]

Originally Posted by m4rk540

The predictions of the tactical challenge of stage 18 are predicated on distance or elevation? Stage 14 was only 117 km but the Tourmalet is harder than any climb on Stage 18. Also, Galibier at 5.1% seems more suited to JA. Finally, the stage ends with a descent where a "classics" rider could gain back 10-15 seconds.

Stage 18 is almost twice as long as stage 14: 208km to 117. You're right that Galibier is perhaps "easier" than Tourmalet, but it follows 2 other HC climbs. The descent to finish is a very short one so don't know if one can pick up significant time without taking crazy risks

[m4rk540]

I'm reading the finishing descent as 11.5 miles. If he's distanced on Galibier as he was on Stage 15 - and I think that's unlikely - he should be able to claw back at least 15 seconds on the descent. As for the distance, I think it's smart money to not underestimate the guy who won Milan-San Remo