OT: Electric Vehicles--anyone driving them or seriously looked at them?

[saab2000]

Originally Posted by BdaGhisallo

I found this quite interesting, and I thought some of the folks following this thread might do also:

Could Tesla Go Bankrupt? The Odds Are Rising
With Tesla's "Next-Gen" compact EV on the back burner, its aging Models 3 & Y will drag down earnings with increasing needs for price cuts. Cash could run out.

https://bradmunchen.substack.com/p/c...m_medium=email

As an investor and a vehicle owner, I hope they’ll be OK. But yeah, it’s a bit weak at the moment. They make four fundamentally pretty similar cars and one oddball. I think those who wanted one have one and they’re going to have a hard time persuading a massive wave more. The cars look a bit bizarre to my eyes and lack any elegance or real engagement for the driver beyond quick acceleration. Debating if I sell the stock at the next spike or hope it is a next Apple or MS over the long run.

[rice rocket]

The sales will keep diminishing until they give it some more appeal than a toaster. The market today looks much different than 10 years ago.

Not sure Musk understands that.

[Ralph]

I've owned the stock several times. And always asked myself what am I buying? A car company and a tech company? Or am I just investing in Elon Musk? If a car company, they have real competition now. If Musk....that star is dimming IMHO.

[Mr. Pink]

I'm pretty convinced that this:

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/st...0vtUhiW-w&s=19

Is why we're trying to do something as stupid as waging an economic war with China, and threatening a military war. They are eating our lunch.

[Louis]

Originally Posted by Mr. Pink

I'm pretty convinced that this:

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/st...0vtUhiW-w&s=19

Is why we're trying to do something as stupid as waging an economic war with China, and threatening a military war. They are eating our lunch.

From the link:

"Why so popular? Its starting price is less than $30k (215,900 yuan) with a better performance (and a very similar design) than a Porsche Taycan, which costs north of $100k. You're essentially buying a top-of-the-range Porsche at Chevy bolt prices..."

Sounds like a lot of marketing BS to me, but if they can make and sell a $100k Porsche equivalent for $30k, let them have at it. I see no reason why we need to protect Porsche, Audi, or any other over-priced euro luxo-car brand.

[verticaldoug]

Originally Posted by BdaGhisallo

I found this quite interesting, and I thought some of the folks following this thread might do also:

Could Tesla Go Bankrupt? The Odds Are Rising
With Tesla's "Next-Gen" compact EV on the back burner, its aging Models 3 & Y will drag down earnings with increasing needs for price cuts. Cash could run out.

https://bradmunchen.substack.com/p/c...m_medium=email

As much as I think Tesla the stock is overvalued, the chances of this are pretty slim. The company is largely debt free outside of a 5 billion dollar revolver they have for cash management. Tesla's issue is discipline. If you look at CAPEX growth, it all appears to be going to GPUs for his AI infatuation right now. Elon's comment on the earnings call about how many GPUs they plan to buy by year end is what really stood out to me. I suppose Elon's ego and need to excitement may enable him to drive this into the ground, but the company is profitable and it just needs discipline which Elon lacks. SpaceX will also face this inflection point in a few years. (although I think they are there now, but what do I know)

[verticaldoug]

Originally Posted by Mr. Pink

I'm pretty convinced that this:

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/st...0vtUhiW-w&s=19

Is why we're trying to do something as stupid as waging an economic war with China, and threatening a military war. They are eating our lunch.

Originally Posted by Louis

From the link:

"Why so popular? Its starting price is less than $30k (215,900 yuan) with a better performance (and a very similar design) than a Porsche Taycan, which costs north of $100k. You're essentially buying a top-of-the-range Porsche at Chevy bolt prices..."

Sounds like a lot of marketing BS to me, but if they can make and sell a $100k Porsche equivalent for $30k, let them have at it. I see no reason why we need to protect Porsche, Audi, or any other over-priced euro luxo-car brand.

Actually this is about Apple in my opinion. Xiaomi is a smartphone maker like Apple, and they just decided to copy apple and build a smart car. Unlike Apple who stopped, they completed it. The car was designed by Xiaomi, but just like Apple outsourced actual phone production to FoxConn, Xiaomi outsourced production to BAIC Group which is the Beijing Automotive, a state owned company. The part about building a car every 76 seconds is still BS, right now it is every 7.5 minutes but still good. Apple probably could not find a production partner outside of China which would make the car, and they rightly decided if they built the car in China, the US would tariff the **** out of it. (btw, Apple is shifting iphone production to india as fast as it can)

This is why the re-shoring effort is gathering steam in the US and so important to our economy going forward. It will be interesting to see what TSMC can actually accomplish at the FABS they are building in Arizona which are behind schedule. They broke ground on a FAB in Kyushu, Japan after the Arizona fab was already being built and that one is already starting production.

[paredown]

Originally Posted by verticaldoug

As much as I think Tesla the stock is overvalued, the chances of this are pretty slim. The company is largely debt free outside of a 5 billion dollar revolver they have for cash management. Tesla's issue is discipline. If you look at CAPEX growth, it all appears to be going to GPUs for his AI infatuation right now. Elon's comment on the earnings call about how many GPUs they plan to buy by year end is what really stood out to me. I suppose Elon's ego and need to excitement may enable him to drive this into the ground, but the company is profitable and it just needs discipline which Elon lacks. SpaceX will also face this inflection point in a few years. (although I think they are there now, but what do I know)

It's worth saying that it is easier to be debt-free when you receive critical government subsidies as Tesla did or get critical government contracts as SpaceX did. Elon is a master at finding areas of business where the government is willing to throw in the form of electric car subsidies (and now the desire to share the Tesla charging network) or "public-private partnerships", as NASA was to solve their need for reliable next-gen orbital transport. Meanwhile, Elon has built Starlink, and will be able to sell SpaceX services to private concerns.

As former minion working for a Federal contractor in DC, my worm's eye view is that you have to work very hard to screw up the sluice of money that can flow from government agencies, so long as you don't engage in outright fraud.

This is an article from when Elon was slagging off about NPR as "government" media--but there are numerous older articles detailing exactly how much he has relied on government funding, direct and indirect:

https://qz.com/elon-musks-spacex-and...mon-1850332884

[BdaGhisallo]

Originally Posted by paredown

It's worth saying that it is easier to be debt-free when you receive critical government subsidies as Tesla did or get critical government contracts as SpaceX did. Elon is a master at finding areas of business where the government is willing to throw in the form of electric car subsidies (and now the desire to share the Tesla charging network) or "public-private partnerships", as NASA was to solve their need for reliable next-gen orbital transport. Meanwhile, Elon has built Starlink, and will be able to sell SpaceX services to private concerns.

As former minion working for a Federal contractor in DC, my worm's eye view is that you have to work very hard to screw up the sluice of money that can flow from government agencies, so long as you don't engage in outright fraud.

This is an article from when Elon was slagging off about NPR as "government" media--but there are numerous older articles detailing exactly how much he has relied on government funding, direct and indirect:

https://qz.com/elon-musks-spacex-and...mon-1850332884

Rent seeking is a skill.

[benb]

I am still not really looking for a new car, at this point I think I've pretty much bought into keeping my Subaru till I can hand it over to my son and then picking up an EV. That's 5 years, so maybe there will be some advancements. The Subaru has 115k miles and my current rate of mileage accumulation is on the border of "less than the bicycles" if I am having a good cycling year.

I did get to go to the Boston Auto Show last weekend and did see a bunch of new EV stuff, though not enough really, many of these companies are still being pretty weird with their marketing.

- Saw the Kia EV6 GT, didn't sit in it, but I did wait in line to drive it on the Nurburgring in the really impressive simulator they brought. Basically had the steering wheel + pedals + seat from the EV6 on a moving platform with a wrap around screen. Neat stuff.

- Kia/Hyundai didn't bring any other EVs to the show despite seemingly being all in. Just a bunch of crossovers and SUVs that got in the low 20-ish mpg range. Weird. Kia has a super cool curved dash computer screen, really neat, but they had all the cars completely off so you couldn't try it.

- Saw the VW ID.Buzz and the 2024 ID.4. Disappointing the ID.Buzz was roped off like the Mclarens & Konegsigg. ID.Buzz looks pretty good size. Trunk area looked a bit disappointing, the one at the show did not have the 3rd row seats. Maybe storage is good back there but they had some kind of drawer system in in the trunk which seemed like it ate space. This seems to be a popular thing these days. I just mention it because the ID.Buzz looks like it won't be as good for things like rolling a bike into the back with zero disassembly. The new ID.4 revision has vastly better electronics in the dash, it was on and they let you go through it. It is fast/responsive now. The VW Employees could not seem to answer any questions at all. The ID.Buzz is coming with a "fold out" hitch receiver like the one Volvo has, but it seems like it was even more flimsy looking than the Volvo one, and bizarrely the VW one you push an electronic button on the keychain and the receiver falls out but doesn't go all the way into place and then you still have to bend down and lock it into place??? They were proud to demo it even though it seemed so bad, and then they had no idea how much the ID.Buzz will be able to tow or what the Max. Tongue Weight was. A whole crowd of people were asking about towing and I'm not sure the employee even understood what Tongue weight is. The ID.4 increasingly looks like a Goldilocks EV though... it's "just right".

- Lots of GM EVs. Saw the Hummer EV for the first time, kind of bizarre. They did not have the Silverado EV but did have the GMC version with the 200Kwh battery. The Hummer EV makes way more sense as a test vehicle when you start to see the reviews of 200Kwh pickup trucks actually having usable towing range. Neat, but all the trucks are also looking stupidly huge. Stood next to the GMC EV truck and literally talked to my dad literally mentioned how terrifying it looked as a cyclist/pedestrian/motorcyclist. I'm 6'1" and the grill was almost up to my shoulders. I have a big garage. Not only do I think I'd have to park a full size pick up outside, at this point trucks like the Tacoma look like they don't fit anymore. (The Tacoma was really striking next to the Tundra, the Tundra doesn't even look that much bigger anymore.)

- No BMWs or M-Bs, I would have liked to see them. Not having bothered to visit a dealer I have not seen any of them up close, though they are definitely seen driving around my area.

- Saw the Honda Prologue.. as a Honda fan there stuff is looking sooo disappointing these days. There was a crowd of people around it going "Even the dash buttons looks like GM parts bin!".

- No Tesla there but I happened to see a Cybertruck this weekend too (parked). It looks cooler in person than pictures. Those of us who hate it are just old. 20-somethings and kids seem to think it just looks like the future. My son thought it was awesome.

[MikeD]

Tesla just laid off most of their Supercharger team https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/30/2...nacs-elon-musk

Puzzling, since the lack of charging infrastructure is a primary reason people don't want to buy EV's. Maybe ELON thinks Tesla has already done enough in this area and it's time for other companies to step up.

[72gmc]

Originally Posted by MikeD

Maybe ELON thinks Tesla has already done enough in this area and it's time for other companies to step up.

This feels close to the truth for me. If the disruptor brain thinks everyone else is getting into its game, it goes looking for a new game ("robotaxis").

[Louis]

Originally Posted by MikeD

Tesla just laid off most of their Supercharger team https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/30/2...nacs-elon-musk

Puzzling, since the lack of charging infrastructure is a primary reason people don't want to buy EV's. Maybe ELON thinks Tesla has already done enough in this area and it's time for other companies to step up.

Unless you only have a 2-year time horizon and they're paying you $$$$, I can't imagine why anyone would sign up to work for a Musk-led company. What a nightmare, in so many different ways.

[AngryScientist]

As a rental in Oregon this past weekend I had a Jeep 4xe Grand Cherokee.

Absolutely loved it.

Also love the concept. Plug in hybrid, with really slick integration. Really smooth, good power application.

Would be perfect for my wife. Haul the kids to local stuff, do shopping, local errands all on electric.

Absolutely perfect as a long haul ICE vehicle.

Not a true EV obviously, but probably worth a look for some folks in the middle.

[rogerspam]

We are likely to lease a Tesla Y--at least can return it in 3 years. The current incentives and price drops make it quite reasonable. It's much better than what we had with our Bolt 3 years ago. I actually really enjoyed the Bolt--zippy, small, big enough since we still own a minivan for big stuff. I wouldn't mind reupping with a Bolt but the lease #'s are just not competitive.

We looked at the ID.4 and it is a good looking car, spacious back seat. Not going it for it also mainly for the financial #'s and also it did have some high profile problems with software. Tesla's not perfect by any means but I guess we'll take the plunge for now.

The market does have a need for a $20-30k small EV that's at least the size of the Bolt.