Too many bikes to sell

[Spdntrxi]

so when to top tier bikes go back to 8-9k instead of 12+.

Let me know I'm waiting.

[rccardr]

Maybe never. Super low production numbers and an elite clientele means they can control supply and distribution more easily. Now that manufacturers have shown that they CAN sell top tier bikes for well over $10K, they'll continue to do so. But I'd expect the prices of second and third tier stuff to drop drastically.

[many_styles]

I don’t think it’s difficult to predict that once people got vaccinated, started traveling and doing other stuff, that demand for bikes would drop. I’m actually waiting for Craigslist ads for all these pandemic bikes.

I think what really complicated it, is inflation and how the current economy is going.

I get that it’s tough; not enough inventory, you lose $, too much and also a problem.


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[merlinmurph]

Originally Posted by prototoast

I don't know anyone who predicted that late summer 2020 would be the point when bike shops ended up with too much inventory.

This spring, I heard at least two sources mention excess inventory this fall. One place was a TCI podcast, can't remember the other.

[bikinchris]

Originally Posted by dbh

I guess that explains where there's such a proliferation of cheap-ish Shimano group sets on Ali Express when earlier in the pandemic that stuff was nearly unobtainable.

Shimano in Malaysia had shut down for several months during the pandemic. No production of low end Shimano at all. Bike companies even resorted to substituting parts.

[Cyzemup]

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/indu...e#.YvhTE_HML0s

Small shops ain't the only ones getting hit.

[peanutgallery]

Covid whiplash

Been living this in real time this year. I am purposely carrying absolutely no inventory at the moment

Last 2 years have been epic, this year...not so much

[bthomas515]

I’ve wondered when this would hit the pros closet. They have an endless stream of higher priced bikes that will certainly catch up.

[peanutgallery]

When you're spending someone else's $$$...it takes a little bit more time. A certain user that I really like will disagree about 7am EST tomorrow morning

Originally Posted by bthomas515

I’ve wondered when this would hit the pros closet. They have an endless stream of higher priced bikes that will certainly catch up.

[herb5998]

In addition to lots of bikes that can’t be moved, the amount of smart trainers some shops ordered is unreal.


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[OldCrank]

"We have almost four times as much inventory as a year ago, primarily on our training product"

https://www.dcrainmaker.com/2022/06/...backstory.html

[rccardr]

Geez.
What were they thinking?
Sure, 2020 was an anomaly, and yeah, nobody knew how long it would take to get back to some kinda normalcy. But.
All these folks who thought that ramping up inventory to multiples of pre-pando levels was a good idea were just wrong. Period.
Yesterday is a much better precursor than today.
Now they are all paying the price.

[AngryScientist]

I wonder if this kind of hit will come to the car market eventually??

[HenryA]

Originally Posted by AngryScientist

I wonder if this kind of hit will come to the car market eventually??

I think not. Car makers and dealers learned during the pandemic that low inventories made for higher prices and profits. Also, more and more dealerships are owned by fewer owners. There is less competition, higher prices and higher profits when most of the car dealers in a shopping area are owned by the same owner.

It may not be apparent as ownership is not often a marketed concept - not like when it was Fred Smith Chevrolet. Name might be the same, ownership is a group with 75 or 150 other stores. No longer Fred. I think we will see tighter work between the makers and big dealer chains for max profit. Both will be gunning to kill off or buy up smaller independents. And we’ll see more cooperation between makers and dealer chains because big dealer chains will be very hard for makers to treat poorly.

Flooding the stores with loads of inventory will be a thing of the past at least for a while.

[Dekonick]

Originally Posted by AngryScientist

I wonder if this kind of hit will come to the car market eventually??

My bet is the used car market will be far better in 4-6 months. It seems there are quite a few repos happening... people missing payments... easy to buy when you are spending COVID cash but can you sustain the payments? Banks probably won't flood the market with their repo's, but eventually something has to give.

Going back to my cave where I lurk around.

Before I go... when the market floodgates open back up, does anyone ever have concerns buying carbon fiber items? I'll have to take a picture of the inside of a cf fork where someone decided to use a star nut. Also a reminder it is time to get a new helmet... Mips or not to mips... that is the question...