Too many bikes to sell

[HenryA]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/shops-o...d=hp_lead_pos5

“At Bike Habitat in New York, lines formed down the block for whatever was available on a given day in the early stages of the pandemic, said owner Charlie McCorkell. Now he has roughly 2,000 bikes in stock, more than double what he would prefer; sales for 2022 are expected to be lower than 2019; and some customers are willing to walk out the door over a bike’s color.”

I predicted this a year ago and here it is. There are gonna be some deals out there. Whether its exactly what you want is another story. And the follow on is that the weakest players may be swept permanently from the playing field.

[AngryScientist]

Yes, I've coined a term for it. "Pulling a Peloton".

Failing to recognize that the pandemic induced surge in fitness equipment sales would end is crazy.

[prototoast]

Originally Posted by AngryScientist

Yes, I've coined a term for it. "Pulling a Peloton".

Failing to recognize that the pandemic induced surge in fitness equipment sales would end is crazy.

This seems overly harsh. Of course the pandemic surge in fitness equipment would end, but predicting when the peak would be and how fast things would drop off is really hard. It really depends on the specifics as to whether being caught with too much inventory on the way down is worse than not having enough inventory during the surge. Timing markets is really hard and for the actual decision makers, just predicting "this boom isn't going to last forever" isn't an actual strategy.

[R3awak3n]

Lets be honest though, didn't everyone (at least half smart) predict this?

[prototoast]

Originally Posted by R3awak3n

Lets be honest though, didn't everyone (at least half smart) predict this?

I don't know anyone who predicted that late summer 2020 would be the point when bike shops ended up with too much inventory.

[AngryScientist]

This article was behind a paywall, so I couldnt actually read it, and cant see the specifics of BH's conundrum.

I agree that predicting the exact end to the buying boom would have been difficult, and if a shop like BH was just chugging along buying what they normally would to supply their customers, that's all well and good - it's the shops that got greedy and thought that they could sell all the bikes they could get their hands on that might be left in a tough position.

[prototoast]

Originally Posted by AngryScientist

This article was behind a paywall, so I couldnt actually read it, and cant see the specifics of BH's conundrum.

I agree that predicting the exact end to the buying boom would have been difficult, and if a shop like BH was just chugging along buying what they normally would to supply their customers, that's all well and good - it's the shops that got greedy and thought that they could sell all the bikes they could get their hands on that might be left in a tough position.

This should get you past the paywall: https://www.wsj.com/articles/shops-o...hare_permalink

Some more context:

Not all bikes are hard to peddle now, however. Bikes that enthusiasts go for–which typically cost more than $1,500–still have wait times, as do supplies of certain parts such as gears and brakes, according to several retailers and McKinsey & Co. partner Alexander Thiel.

One retailer that didn’t have enough high-end models for sale recently was Massachusetts chain Landry’s Bicycles, which had difficulty meeting demand for mountain bikes in the run-up to a high-profile Pan Mass Challenge charity ride earlier this month, said James Ray, who manages business and e-commerce for Landry’s.

[Veloo]

Didn't read yet cuz of the paywall but wonder when all these shops had to put in their orders during the pandemic in the hopes of getting some kind of inventory.

[eippo1]

One retailer that didn’t have enough high-end models for sale recently was Massachusetts chain Landry’s Bicycles, which had difficulty meeting demand for mountain bikes in the run-up to a high-profile Pan Mass Challenge charity ride earlier this month, said James Ray, who manages business and e-commerce for Landry’s.

Seems like the author got their information crossed. The NE mid range mountain bike shortage and Pan Mass Challenge demand for low end road bikes and mid range hybrids are two separate things.

[C40_guy]

Originally Posted by eippo1

Seems like the author got their information crossed. The NE mid range mountain bike shortage and Pan Mass Challenge demand for low end road bikes and mid range hybrids are two separate things.

Agreed. And interestingly, there was demand for e-bike charging stations in Bourne on Saturday.

...but no, I did not see a single mountain bike there. I *have* seen a few mountain bikes on the route, but didn't see any in Bourne this year (was volunteering, rather than riding).

[2000m2]

I just read this article too and was wondering when/if I'd see it here...
Seems to me that in addition to the impossible challenge of predicting the "end" of the pandemic, retailers of all kinds were ordering everything they could in hopes of getting some inventory due to supply chain snarls. The stop/start issues with factories in Asia only made the situation worse as goods make their way through to retailers. Now that inventory is finally showing up, customers aren't there anymore. Tough spot to be in. I suppose we can assist by buying stuff that goes on sale.

[spoonrobot]

The article is about finding firms who fell into irrational exuberance, especially given the widely available stats for 2021.

Revenue at U.S. bicycle retailers declined by 7% in January through June versus last year, according to market research group NPD, compared with jumps of 46% and 4% during the same periods in 2020 and 2021.

The fitness boom was 2020, 2021 was the long-tail, 2022 is the contraction, 2023 is going to be ???

Lots of people called this or got cold feet as soon as Summer 2021 was flat. Our shop didn't order any normie bikes from June-October 2021 because sales were so slow. Gravel and road are hit or miss but less inventory was held for those.

[dbh]

I guess that explains where there's such a proliferation of cheap-ish Shimano group sets on Ali Express when earlier in the pandemic that stuff was nearly unobtainable.

[Pegoready]

This is just a small data point, but for the first time in FOREVER I am getting email blasts from shops with bikes actually on sale. Like huge sales. One local shop is selling Ibis MTB's for 25% off in good sizes and current model year. Once they account for their fixed costs, they're underwater on these bikes. It's surprising but I think it will happen across the board as manufacturers finally fulfill retailers orders and those retailers are left cash poor.

[deechee]

I know even last year my bike shop was receiving bikes late, and the MSRP would be raised from when a customer agreed to purchase a model. He had to eat the diff sometimes which hurt. If its happening this year as well, I can only imagine how much worse the inflation is.

Definitely less disposable income to go around since people are getting back to their lives, and with everything getting more expensive, its tough.