OT: Ray, how's your Bitcoin investment going?

[nate2351]

Originally Posted by efuentes

After being a fan for several years of the "Singularity" idea, I find it really interesting how more and more tech have become too complicated for most users. Brave new world indeed ...

Blockchain technology holds a lot of amazing potential, way outside of crypto currency, but most would admit it is not yet ready for mass market consumption. Currently you can send dollars(for free) though Apple Pay Cash as opposed to the network fee you would have to pay on any crypto transaction....

[efuentes]

e-currencies really pose a problem for the traditional transfer of value business on an international scale, we are talking deep pockets people that wont give up it´s revenue cow easily. Put that together with the coming energy and transportation disruption that will create Tesla´s 175k truck with a 1 MegaWatt battery and big money might start to get jumpy.

[ojingoh]

Originally Posted by nate2351

Currently you can send dollars(for free) though Apple Pay Cash as opposed to the network fee you would have to pay on any crypto transaction....

You have to own an iPhone.

[nate2351]

Originally Posted by efuentes

e-currencies really pose a problem for the traditional transfer of value business on an international scale, we are talking deep pockets people that wont give up it´s revenue cow easily. Put that together with the coming energy and transportation disruption that will create Tesla´s 175k truck with a 1 MegaWatt battery and big money might start to get jumpy.

At this point big money might be the only ones who can afford to operate those trucks.

Next week (Monday the 11th) Wall Street can start shorting in the new Bitcoin futures market, things might get interesting sooner than we think.

[nate2351]

Originally Posted by ojingoh

You have to own an iPhone.

Don't be surprised to see an Android counter part launching soon.

[MattTuck]

Originally Posted by nate2351

At this point big money might be the only ones who can afford to operate those trucks.

Next week (Monday the 11th) Wall Street can start shorting in the new Bitcoin futures market, things might get interesting sooner than we think.

I haven't read enough to know about the new futures markets, but is there some limit on the notional amount of futures that can be taken out for bitcoin?

In other words, could 20 different parties each go and short 1 million bitcoins? Such that, the only way to cover all the shorts is to just buy offsetting long future contracts to close out the positions?

There are lots of games played in the gold market around paper contracts vs. physical gold. I wonder if we'll see the same thing here.

[cinema]

Originally Posted by MattTuck

I haven't read enough to know about the new futures markets, but is there some limit on the notional amount of futures that can be taken out for bitcoin?

In other words, could 20 different parties each go and short 1 million bitcoins? Such that, the only way to cover all the shorts is to just buy offsetting long future contracts to close out the positions?

There are lots of games played in the gold market around paper contracts vs. physical gold. I wonder if we'll see the same thing here.

I could be wrong here, but btc futs will be nondeliverable, cash settled. So while the investor may be able to 'short' it, they wouldn't really being doing so except on paper. of course those orders are made available to people to see and react to via order flow, so it could have an effect, but MM's would probably be buying spot btc to hedge the bet anyway, driving the price higher in the near term. a short contract would still rely on people shorting btc spot to profit.

to be completely honest, RIP to anyone shorting spot btc. one of my favorite follows: https://twitter.com/bitmexrekt

[FlashUNC]

Originally Posted by nate2351

Don't be surprised to see an Android counter part launching soon.

It already exists. You can send money for free through GMail.

[verticaldoug]

Originally Posted by MattTuck

I haven't read enough to know about the new futures markets, but is there some limit on the notional amount of futures that can be taken out for bitcoin?

In other words, could 20 different parties each go and short 1 million bitcoins? Such that, the only way to cover all the shorts is to just buy offsetting long future contracts to close out the positions?

There are lots of games played in the gold market around paper contracts vs. physical gold. I wonder if we'll see the same thing here.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/bitcoin-futures.html

Each bitcoin future will be 5 coins. Position Limit in Spot is 1,000 contracts. So 5,000 bit coins or $75,000,000 USD

I expect some people have front loaded the futures listing and already bought BTC. So once the futures list, they will look to sell futures to lock in their profit and have a cash&carry position.

I'll be very surprised if futures trade at a premium to spot.

If you are a professional and since the bitcoin market is unregulated, it will be interesting to see how professionals what to play the expiration print. It really will be how much execution risk they want.

The upside to the futures vs the BTC is you can actually get all your money from the exchange . I think all the current BTC exchanges severely restrict the amount of money you withdraw from your account. If I am wrong here, someone please correct my ignorance.

[54ny77]

anything that goes from zero to an incredibly insane # over a pretty short timeframe, with nothing really to show for it other than people wanting to buy it, just smells of a giant game of musical chairs.

i read something the other day that if you invested $100 in bitcoin 5-6 years ago, it'd be worth $3 million today.

mind boggling.

governments could stop it in a stroke of a pen. that's a pretty big risk.

[bobswire]

https://grist.org/article/bitcoin-co...energy-future/

[thegunner]

Originally Posted by 54ny77

governments could stop it in a stroke of a pen. that's a pretty big risk.

i'm not sure i fully agree with that statement (but i may very well be missing how a goverment could completely regulate a decentralized blockchain). china has tried repeatedly to impose controls over the exchanges - as they're more or less used to move money out of the country - but that's only caused a bit of a hassle in terms of mobility. i know more than a few chinese nationals who still have quite a bit of btc on their hands.

[MattTuck]

A government could probably clamp down on the exchanges, which could seriously diminish the value if people are unable to convert their bitcoin holdings back into cash.

I think it is harder to see how a single government could seriously impact the actual bitcoin network/blockchain.

[thegunner]

Originally Posted by MattTuck

A government could probably clamp down on the exchanges, which could seriously diminish the value if people are unable to convert their bitcoin holdings back into cash.

I think it is harder to see how a single government could seriously impact the actual bitcoin network/blockchain.

right, but what i'm saying is, in theory that would be how it plays out:

regulation => difficulty in conversion back

but in practice, it doesn't seem to have made much of a dent when you can sell on an exchange in SK for $17k per coin and convert won back to yuan.

[MattTuck]

Originally Posted by thegunner

right, but what i'm saying is, in theory that would be how it plays out:

regulation => difficulty in conversion back

but in practice, it doesn't seem to have made much of a dent when you can sell on an exchange in SK for $17k per coin and convert won back to yuan.

Agreed. I was just trying to expand on 54ny77's point about what governments could do with the stroke of a pen.