Quote:
Originally Posted by ColonelJLloyd
Well. . . nah. Any intangible "win" you're ascribing to the Marlins by Carpenter not swinging at that pitch is nothing that's going to help them today or tomorrow. The lesson they learned may, but the pitcher gave up a bunt double which turned into a run. It takes some pretty fuzzy math to get to a "win" that way.
Matt Carpenter and his managers had situational awareness and Carp was able to execute. It was good baseball.
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Well, for this specific situation you are of course correct - it turned out poorly for Miami. But the Marlins shifted because it provides the highest EV for them. Carp had already crushed a solo shot in the 3rd, and they had 2 out. No reason to expect that even a ground ball to the L side is going to result in a run. If the pitcher keeps the ball anywhere except down and away, Carp doesn't get that bunt down to the 3rd base side. If they manage not to bungle the pop up, it turns out fine for them.
Maybe the real lesson here is "LOL, Marlins."