COVID-19 reality for us

[C40_guy]

Originally Posted by oldpotatoe

As of this morning. USA

188,247 reported as infected, 3912 deaths-2.08%

While I'm not a statistician, I'm not sure these numbers can be compared in any meaningful way.

The "reported infected" number represents a tiny, non-random sampling of a small sliver of the population. A lagging snapshot in time largely of wealthy people, politicians, some medical workers and athletes. People who had access to testing.

The "reported infected" probably also includes those who showed up for medical care and, due to their symptoms, were assumed to be infected. IDK, I haven't dug into the reporting methodology.

Most of those infected have not been tested. Most are riding it out at home. As a result, they don't show up in the "reported infected" number.

My son, for instance, had minor symptoms and got on a testing wait list. Then he got booted off the list. He's fine now. So, if he had the virus, he's in a category of "untested/unknown."

On the other hand, most of the deaths will be accurately reported. Sure, there may be a few who died without causality being attributed to the virus.

If my assumptions are correct, it suggests that the actual mortality rate is a lot lower. We need to use the number of "all infected" versus "reported infected" to determine actual survival rates.

Feel free to pick apart my assumptions...

[Clean39T]

Originally Posted by OtayBW

Paranoia strikes deep.....

Step in the store, the man come and take you away.

[sjbraun]

I'm off for a quick (err, slow, but short,) ride before I assist my wife on a conference call with her siblings to discuss what levels of care they want for their elderly, Alzheimer's ridden father.
Coronavirus will likely be a death sentence for him. He's fine now, but there was an exposure in the facility where he lives, (a caregiver tested positive.) Given his needs for assistance with dressing, bathing, feeding and mobility, there's no way for him to practice social distancing. One of these days, an asymptomatic caregiver will spread the virus throughout the facility. And then...

My wife is pretty shattered by the thought of her Dad dying alone, but sadly, that is our new reality.

[pmac]

Originally Posted by yinzerniner

This is from a friend in the CDC as well as a PA


2 - Since the virus is so new it's not clear whether recovered people are fully immune. But there have been a few cases of repeat infections. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/...after-covid19/

The link very clearly notes that the 'repeat' infections have not been confirmed, with multiple alternate explanations. Because the virus does not mutate at the same high frequency as a flu virus, it seems more likely that there will be immunity.

[AngryScientist]

Originally Posted by sjbraun

I'm off for a quick (err, slow, but short,) ride before I assist my wife on a conference call with her siblings to discuss what levels of care they want for their elderly, Alzheimer's ridden father.
Coronavirus will likely be a death sentence for him. He's fine now, but there was an exposure in the facility where he lives, (a caregiver tested positive.) Given his needs for assistance with dressing, bathing, feeding and mobility, there's no way for him to practice social distancing. One of these days, an asymptomatic caregiver will spread the virus throughout the facility. And then...

My wife is pretty shattered by the thought of her Dad dying alone, but sadly, that is our new reality.

that is a tragic and sobering thought. best wishes to you and your family.

Try not to lose hope! It's not over till its over.

[Clean39T]

Originally Posted by Cantdog

I understand the comparison to alcohol in number of deaths, but health effects of alcohol are both acute and chronic. Some will die from driving intoxicated/accidents/suicide while intoxicated, but many will die from hepatocellular carcinoma, alcohol related dementia, cirrhosis, etc. Those deaths build for decades. What is also frightening is we do not know the long term health effects of serious infections from COVID19. Maybe people get better and never have any long term impacts? I hope so.

Some potential issues--physical: we do not know if the lung changes 2/2 COVID19 fully reverse or cause long term issues. Same goes for those who develop cardiomyopathy. Psychological--on average, 10-20% of individuals in ICUs report subsequent PTSD related to hospitalization. Much higher with PTSD symptoms. This has long term consequences for the patient, families, etc.

For those who are older or who have comorbidities, an infection just isn't an infection. An infection is often the thing that leads to using up what functional reserves someone has. That means needing more help at home, worsening underlying disease status, needing rehab or transitioning to long term care, or entering a new phase of illness where things start to change more rapidly. Yes, there are immediate effects of COVID19, but most people don't need one other thing to add to the equation.

I'm not saying it isn't serious. I'm saying we (society) are shooting from the hip instead of taking a deep breath, steadying, getting on target, and pulling the trigger. This is a trolley-problem. But we don't know if we are sending the trolley toward the better or worse fate, from a utilitarian perspective - we're just going based on whoever is screaming loudest.

The comparison to alcohol is to put the totals in context. Imagine the hysteria if the media was running a ticker for every drunk-driving death.....

[pbarry]

NYT reported over the weekend on the possible false positives and possible false negatives in the numbers being reported in China due to the 30-50% inaccuracy of the test they are using. The re-infection of patients who have recuperated and tested negative, then test positive again, may or may not be happening.. I’d like to see some data from WA state to see if reinfection is happening elsewhere.

[OtayBW]

Originally Posted by Clean39T

Step in the store, the man come and take you away.

HAR! I was wondering if anyone would pick that up!

[Dino Suegiù]

Is this the new Covid-19 thread, after the other one was closed?

If so, isn't "ATMO" a bit odd in the title, since it will include many people's opinions?

[benb]

Originally Posted by Cantdog

I'm hoping that what we have done in MA will make it not as severe here as in NYC. I think the early actions by the governor, state insurance companies quickly adapting to telehealth, and the healthcare system starting respiratory clinicis to unburden emergency departments, clear spaces(set up new facilities) for pts who cant return to nursing homes, etc will help. But time will tell, and we are still two weeks from projected peak here. Ugh.

We haven't hit peak deaths yet anywhere.

But right now I'm crunching numbers on the publicly available data. I did this last week at one point too.

Right now I've done:
NY
NYC

MA
Middlesex Count (MA) - where I live

All of them look like we are actually bending the curve at this point. % Day over Day Growth in new cases is much better than a week ago. The absolute numbers this week look scary, but the % growth in new cases is slowing down and looks much less scary. We all need to keep up discipline.

[jimcav]

Originally Posted by C40_guy

While I'm not a statistician, I'm not sure these numbers can be compared in any meaningful way.

The "reported infected" number represents a tiny, non-random sampling of a small sliver of the population. A lagging snapshot in time largely of wealthy people, politicians, some medical workers and athletes. People who had access to testing.

The "reported infected" probably also includes those who showed up for medical care and, due to their symptoms, were assumed to be infected. IDK, I haven't dug into the reporting methodology.

Most of those infected have not been tested. Most are riding it out at home. As a result, they don't show up in the "reported infected" number.

My son, for instance, had minor symptoms and got on a testing wait list. Then he got booted off the list. He's fine now. So, if he had the virus, he's in a category of "untested/unknown."

On the other hand, most of the deaths will be accurately reported. Sure, there may be a few who died without causality being attributed to the virus.

If my assumptions are correct, it suggests that the actual mortality rate is a lot lower. We need to use the number of "all infected" versus "reported infected" to determine actual survival rates.

Feel free to pick apart my assumptions...

it means actually tested positive for COVID-19. It isn't meaningless because we have older data from those that went before us. Same virus, same humans here. It is playing out (sadly) here as it did in other areas with free travel, socializing, volume exceeding available testing capcity, and later isolation and social distancing. Your point is true, that once we have WIDESPREAD testing, the CFR will obviously drop, but that has NOTHING to do with the number who will be seriously ill and die. Your assumption that the USA is/will probably do a good job of more accurately reporting deaths is also true--and that will help those that come after us in this pandemic. When I think of all those names on the wall at the Vietnam War Memorial, and think we will hit that number in 30-40 days, possibly less, well it is just so stark.

[Spdntrxi]

Originally Posted by pbarry

NYT reported over the weekend on the possible false positives and possible false negatives in the numbers being reported in China due to the 30-50% inaccuracy of the test they are using. The re-infection of patients who have recuperated and tested negative, then test positive again, may or may not be happening.. I’d like to see some data from WA state to see if reinfection is happening elsewhere.

This is one reason CDC wanted their own test... but also caused delays in testing in the US

[jimcav]

Originally Posted by Dino Suegiù

Is this the new Covid-19 thread, after the other one was closed?

If so, isn't "ATMO" a bit odd in the title, since it will include many people's opinions?

and let it roll from there. I put that there because it is my (informed) opinion

[Dino Suegiù]

If this is the new Covid-19 thread, after the other one was closed:
It seems that the use of masks is now being recommended for general exposure, not N95 but at least some kind, even for the non-afflicted public, for grocery shopping, etc.

But where can one find any masks of any type at all? I cannot find any anywhere, even online.

I am in a high-risk group, do not have any masks, no stores around for miles have any at all, and now I am terrified to go to the grocery and am running out of food. I do not even have scarves to wear.

I remember some years ago the power company would drop off some free energy-saving light bulbs at every door, on every street, which was nice of them. Is anyone doing that for masks? Otherwise, where can one find these masks?

[Dino Suegiù]

Originally Posted by jimcav

and let it roll from there. I put that there because it is my (informed) opinion

I realize that, and I (and I think just about everyone here) know your opinion is informed, but it will not be a single post now, right? And, the acronym has other associations.