COVID-19 reality for us

[colker]

Originally Posted by oldpotatoe

Geez..I hope so..testing and then isolation is key..testing is a sliver of where it should be..WPA to manufacturer's making test equipment..NOW, but of course that won't happen. "I haven't heard about problems with testing for a couple of weeks", "If you want a test, get a test, they are there and they are 'beautiful'....gads

Really pessimistic and discouraged rght now..Grandaughter's birthdays, in 4 days and May 21st..

South Korea tested everybody. We need better authorities.

[joosttx]

Some positive stuff from the hood.

https://patch.com/california/sanrafa...ign=newsletter

[Ed-B]

Originally Posted by unterhausen

It's clear that a lot of people have the virus and don't know it. The story about Italian blood donors is a good example. OTOH, three 30-ish y.o. residents have died in NYC in the last 24 hours. It's really not clear what conditions lead to younger people or nominally healthy older people dying. It's easy to say that they died so they must have had comorbidity of some sort, but that's not a lot of comfort. Maybe things will become more clear as time goes on. The way the system works here, one of their survivors is going to have to pay their medical bills and probably their med school bills.

We're never told much about the conditions of those individuals who perish from this disease, and the media tends to hype those that don't fit the profile of being elderly, or having other (known) comorbidities.

And our for-profit medical system and student loan racket which has bankrupted people in better times is going to strained to a breaking point.

[Skenry]

Originally Posted by AngryScientist

no way this is going on for another full year. the economy will crash completely, there will be civil unrest and organized crime will be a huge machine again. i'm guessing we're about a month away from a speakeasy boom where the drunks can congregate again......
........that may not happen for a while, but it wont be a year either.

Totally agree, we are a flashpoint away from two guys fighting over a roll of TP in a grocery store. Tempers are already high, businesses are closing forever, houses will be foreclosed, renters booted. The economy in shambles, retirements (lives) already destroyed.
Soon the only positive outcomes will be for the criminals.

Have supplies at home, have a defendable space and have a plan with your loved ones. The threat coming that I see is not the sickness its the survivors and the left behinds.

Unfortunately before we get 18, 12 or even 6 months out, things will decay down quickly. The Worls will reopen, the herd will thin itself out naturally (sorry) and the first countries to realize this will be the new global superpowers.

[Elefantino]

Originally Posted by Skenry

Totally agree, we are a flashpoint away from two guys fighting over a roll of TP in a grocery store. Tempers are already high, businesses are closing forever, houses will be foreclosed, renters booted. The economy in shambles, retirements (lives) already destroyed.
Soon the only positive outcomes will be for the criminals.

Have supplies at home, have a defendable space and have a plan with your loved ones. The threat coming that I see is not the sickness its the survivors and the left behinds.

Unfortunately before we get 18, 12 or even 6 months out, things will decay down quickly. The Worls will reopen, the herd will thin itself out naturally (sorry) and the first countries to realize this will be the new global superpowers.

We're close. This morning when the market opened at 7, people ran to the back of the store for the paper goods.

[OtayBW]

Originally Posted by Ed-B

... and the media tends to hype those that don't fit the profile of being elderly, or having other (known) comorbidities....

Why shouldn't they? A healthy ~30yo person gets taken out, out of the blue by something that was more or less asymptomatic a few days earlier - I'd say that's something that people would want to know about...

[Hilltopperny]

Originally Posted by Ed-B

We're never told much about the conditions of those individuals who perish from this disease, and the media tends to hype those that don't fit the profile of being elderly, or having other (known) comorbidities.

And our for-profit medical system and student loan racket which has bankrupted people in better times is going to strained to a breaking point.

This is very true. The person that my ex came into contact has severe health issues already and although there are some cases in younger people they seem to dismiss any of the specifics. My own father died at 36 after a missed diagnosis and being given medication that actually spread the disease and killed him. Not a word about that and didn’t realize until I was older what was happening due to taking a med certification course. Media hasn’t seen this kind of viewership boost since 9/11.


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[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by Ed-B View Post
I'm guessing we're about two months away from civil unrest. The economy is shot.

Healthy people with families to feed, no job, no money, nothing to lose.

Everyone is wearing gloves and masks and there are lots of guns around. How convenient for armed robbery.

The economic and societal fallout could be very bad. We're going to need a set of economic stimulus and social support programs like the world has never seen to prevent total anarchy.

I hope I'm wrong...

Originally Posted by joosttx

You are.

I wouldn't be so sure. $1200 payment to some isn't going to help. $BILLION$ to United isn't going to help anybody if there is no $ to fly. $BILLION$ to some car company isn't going to help if nobody has the $ to buy a car.

Yet, we still give the DOD $700BILLION plus..it's nutz.

[GregL]

Originally Posted by Hilltopperny

This is very true. The person that my ex came into contact has severe health issues already and although there are some cases in younger people they seem to dismiss any of the specifics. My own father died at 36 after a missed diagnosis and being given medication that actually spread the disease and killed him. Not a word about that and didn’t realize until I was older what was happening due to taking a med certification course. Media hasn’t seen this kind of viewership boost since 9/11.

The problem here is that the scientific community simply hasn’t had sufficient time to analyze and characterize why certain people are more susceptible to this virus. Thanks to the continuous media cycle, people expect immediate news. It will take months to years to understand why this virus affects people in different ways. Since scared people aren’t getting the reassurance they crave, they jump to bad conclusions. Your previous post highlighted the effects of bad conclusions. The local government officials (in your example, county officials) appear to have concluded that this virus really isn’t too bad - except for those who will die from it. They appear willing to accept those deaths as acceptable, collateral damage. Since our government wasn’t prepared and our populous is grumpy, should we be willing to just “thin the herd?” I find this choice appalling.

Greg

[AngryScientist]

in other news, we braved the quarantine and had an intense camp out deep deep in the back country last night. it was a blast

[Tony T]

Originally Posted by AngryScientist

no way this is going on for another full year. the economy will crash completely, there will be civil unrest and organized crime will be a huge machine again. i'm guessing we're about a month away from a speakeasy boom where the drunks can congregate again.

once we get a handle on how long a sick person is contagious an if a previously infected person has true immunity - and we get a readily available rapid response test, we should be able to go back to relative normal.

test healthcare workers and others likely to come into contact with the test very regularly. test everyone else now. confine/quarantine every sick positive and we've got it.

that may not happen for a while, but it wont be a year either.

IMO, of course.

We’ll see what happens in Italy:

https://is.gd/3VrFJq

In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies
Weighing an idea that might once have been relegated to science fiction, Italy once again finds itself in the unfortunate vanguard of Western democracies grappling with the coronavirus.

Having the right antibodies to the virus in one’s blood — a potential marker of immunity — may soon determine who gets to work and who does not, who is locked down and who is free.

That debate is in some ways ahead of the science. Researchers are uncertain, if hopeful, that antibodies in fact indicate immunity. But that has not stopped politicians from grasping at the idea as they come under increasing pressure to open economies and avoid inducing a widespread economic depression.

[colker]

Originally Posted by Skenry

Totally agree, we are a flashpoint away from two guys fighting over a roll of TP in a grocery store. Tempers are already high, businesses are closing forever, houses will be foreclosed, renters booted. The economy in shambles, retirements (lives) already destroyed.
Soon the only positive outcomes will be for the criminals.

Have supplies at home, have a defendable space and have a plan with your loved ones. The threat coming that I see is not the sickness its the survivors and the left behinds.

Unfortunately before we get 18, 12 or even 6 months out, things will decay down quickly. The Worls will reopen, the herd will thin itself out naturally (sorry) and the first countries to realize this will be the new global superpowers.

Throw fighters in jail. Cool water over their heads.

Renters won´t be booted because there are no other renters in sight: owners acommodate.

"have supplies at home..." till when? next year? How do you defend your family from a virus? You need a doctor. A doctor is not your family. You need other people.

It is a collective pain situation. Either you engage somehow in collective effort by any means, even a positive thought is wellcome... or you are outdated. These are times to realize you are as successfull as you provide something others need or want. Individualism is over.

[tuscanyswe]

Originally Posted by colker

Throw fighters in jail. Cool water over their heads.

Renters won´t be booted because there are no other renters in sight: owners acommodate.

"have supplies at home..." till when? next year? How do you defend your family from a virus? You need a doctor. A doctor is not your family. You need other people.

It is a collective pain situation. Either you engage somehow in collective effort by any means, even a positive thought is wellcome... or you are outdated. These are times to realize you are as successfull as you provide something others need or want. Individualism is over.

Well said

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by colker

Throw fighters in jail. Cool water over their heads.

Renters won´t be booted because there are no other renters in sight: owners acommodate.

"have supplies at home..." till when? next year? How do you defend your family from a virus? You need a doctor. A doctor is not your family. You need other people.

It is a collective pain situation. Either you engage somehow in collective effort by any means, even a positive thought is welcome... or you are outdated. These are times to realize you are as successful as you provide something others need or want. Individualism is over.

-Not when they are armed.
-Some will, many do not, like that really nice guy, Jared Kushner
https://www.propublica.org/article/t...f-kushnerville

[daker13]

Originally Posted by Hilltopperny

Just going to put this out there since I think it is more relevant as I am living it. I spoke with my ex yesterday after the confirmed positive exposure. She works in a group home situation and Montgomery county still has all the staff working and refuses to test them. They were told that they were more than likely already infected as were their families and that they do not have much to worry about since it has likely already run its course! Let that sink in please. They aren’t testing those that have a huge probability of spreading it and are releasing them into the communities after multiple exposures every day!

So, I have to address a few things here since this means that this virus is far more widespread then any of the skewed numbers we are being given. This means way more infected, but the death toll is not rising. That means this is less lethal then anybody is reporting. Not to say those who have weak immune systems or underlying conditions aren’t dying or having major effects, but they told my ex and her co workers that if you are healthy and don’t have pre existing conditions then you aren’t even likely to show any symptoms. They also said you were basically safe as it’s a virus like chicken pox and once you were positive you could no longer get it.

I saw more people out yesterday while out for a solo bike ride then I have EVER seen on the canal way path. I have been riding that stretch since they put it in and have never seen the traffic that was out yesterday. Seems like this is just going to spread and those who have little to no immune system will suffer just like if they catch any virus or sickness. The overwhelming majority of people in good health will not really have an issue, but may see much milder symptoms if they get it and most will not even know that they had it.

There is one thing I know for sure and that is the numbers in NYS are being skewed and selective testing does not tell the real truth about COVID-19. The numbers will continue to go up because there are more tests available, but they are still only testing those with severe cases. I wouldn’t feel this was an issue if we weren’t being led to believe that selective testing is giving the real numbers, but that is all we are getting.

If the shortages of medical supplies were really an issue then why is the Governor refusing help from local manufacturing facilities capable? There are way too many things that stink about this and I know this will not go over well with the majority here, but something is amiss.

I know from your other posts that you have family members under quarantine, so apologies for pushing back on some of the things you're saying/suggesting.

You refer to 'they' a couple of times here and I'm not clear who you're referring to. The CDC? The WHO? The state of New York? The people running the group home?

I think you're right that there are tons of people who are positive for COVID who have low level or nonexistent symptoms. However, I don't think it's right to conclude it's "less lethal" than authorities are suggesting. The disease is supposed to peak in the US in a month, so now's not the time to judge how lethal it is. As everyone knows at this point, of course, if social distancing works, then the virus will appear to many to have been less lethal; but that may just be because social distancing was successful.

The WHO said that 3/4 of those who were asymptomatic in China eventually developed the full-blown virus with its symptoms. (I hope that turns out not to be true.)

You also say that many people may have been exposed to the virus, did not show symptoms because they were basically healthy people, and are now immune to the virus. I am pretty sure that this is not known at this point. This happens with many viruses, and it may very well happen, but I don't think any credible scientist/epidemiologist is willing to make this claim at this point. The common cold is the contrary example that I heard, of a virus that one can be exposed to multiple times and get over and over again (not sure if that's accurate, honestly).

I wish I shared your confidence that healthy people aren't in danger. Anecdotally, I've read tons and tons of stories about young and healthy people who have gotten very ill from COVID 19. I myself am a relatively healthy middle aged guy with mild asthma. I suspect that I could end up on a ventilator (if there's one available) if I got the virus. I have a friend who has much worse asthma and had pneumonia in February and she's totally confident that coronavirus isn't going to give her trouble, so who knows who's right?

I may be misreading the gist of your post, but the problem with presenting hypotheticals as facts is that it may lead to more people being too casual about the virus.