COVID-19 reality for us

[oldpotatoe]

Who thinks this whole gig will be any different until there's a vaccine?

Even if new cases decline to very small numbers, the risk is still there for those of who are 'at risk' or have a spouse who is 'at risk'...It doesn't matter if the risk of being infected is small, unless everybody is tested and regularly, and ALL those infected are isolated until they are either well or not, the risk of being infected is still there.

I don't expect to hug my grand daughters until their NEXT birthdays..April and May of 2021. Mom works in a hospital in Denver.

JimCav, show me a tunnel please so I can search for a wee light..

[AngryScientist]

Originally Posted by oldpotatoe

Who thinks this whole gig will be any different until there's a vaccine?

Even if new cases decline to very small numbers, the risk is still there for those of who are 'at risk' or have a spouse who is 'at risk'...It doesn't matter if the risk of being infected is small, unless everybody is tested and regularly, and ALL those infected are isolated until they are either well or not, the risk of being infected is still there.

I don't expect to hug my grand daughters until their NEXT birthdays..April and May of 2021. Mom works in a hospital in Denver.

JimCav, show me a tunnel please so I can search for a wee light..

no way this is going on for another full year. the economy will crash completely, there will be civil unrest and organized crime will be a huge machine again. i'm guessing we're about a month away from a speakeasy boom where the drunks can congregate again.

once we get a handle on how long a sick person is contagious an if a previously infected person has true immunity - and we get a readily available rapid response test, we should be able to go back to relative normal.

test healthcare workers and others likely to come into contact with the test very regularly. test everyone else now. confine/quarantine every sick positive and we've got it.

that may not happen for a while, but it wont be a year either.

IMO, of course.

[tuscanyswe]

Originally Posted by oldpotatoe

Who thinks this whole gig will be any different until there's a vaccine?

Even if new cases decline to very small numbers, the risk is still there for those of who are 'at risk' or have a spouse who is 'at risk'...It doesn't matter if the risk of being infected is small, unless everybody is tested and regularly, and ALL those infected are isolated until they are either well or not, the risk of being infected is still there.

I don't expect to hug my grand daughters until their NEXT birthdays..April and May of 2021. Mom works in a hospital in Denver.

JimCav, show me a tunnel please so I can search for a wee light..

I think in a not to distant future (in sweden they will roll out next week allrdy for certain groups, or so they say) we will have tests that can determine if you have it or if you have had it that are cheap and readily available. In combination with knowing if ppl become immune or not or for how long i think you and your wife should be able to see your grandchildren far sooner than a year.

Now that does not mean life will be back to "normal" ofc but it will not be this whatever we call it for another year. Of that im pretty certain.

[Ed-B]

I'm guessing we're about two months away from civil unrest. The economy is shot.

Healthy people with families to feed, no job, no money, nothing to lose.

Everyone is wearing gloves and masks and there are lots of guns around. How convenient for armed robbery.

The economic and societal fallout could be very bad. We're going to need a set of economic stimulus and social support programs like the world has never seen to prevent total anarchy.

I hope I'm wrong...

Originally Posted by AngryScientist

no way this is going on for another full year. the economy will crash completely, there will be civil unrest and organized crime will be a huge machine again. i'm guessing we're about a month away from a speakeasy boom where the drunks can congregate again.

once we get a handle on how long a sick person is contagious an if a previously infected person has true immunity - and we get a readily available rapid response test, we should be able to go back to relative normal.

test healthcare workers and others likely to come into contact with the test very regularly. test everyone else now. confine/quarantine every sick positive and we've got it.

that may not happen for a while, but it wont be a year either.

IMO, of course.

[OtayBW]

Originally Posted by AngryScientist

...once we get a handle on how long a sick person is contagious an if a previously infected person has true immunity - and we get a readily available rapid response test, we should be able to go back to relative normal.

test healthcare workers and others likely to come into contact with the test very regularly. test everyone else now. confine/quarantine every sick positive and we've got it.

that may not happen for a while, but it wont be a year either.

IMO, of course.

Two things to consider are: 1) mutation of new strains from the original virus, and 2) seasonality of this/these. Given that this appears to be quite a moving target, there is a lot more uncertainty than
meets the eye...

[OtayBW]

Originally Posted by Ed-B

I'm guessing we're about two months away from civil unrest. The economy is shot.

Healthy people with families to feed, no job, no money, nothing to lose.

Everyone is wearing gloves and masks and there are lots of guns around. How convenient for armed robbery.

The economic and societal fallout could be very bad. We're going to need a set of economic stimulus and social support programs like the world has never seen to prevent total anarchy.

I hope I'm wrong...

That's a pretty disarming outlook, though there are elements of it that I would agree with. If we start topping out with the massive unemployment and constraints on the supply chain for food, things will start getting more dicey.

[Ed-B]

Forget the testing. It's everywhere already, it's been in global circulation for months. Everyone is going to get it. Come to grips with that. Flattening the curve may slow it down some, but we're behind that curve in so many places that it won't be effective.

Hilltoperny's post is indicative of the realization that some people are beginning to have about this pandemic. Yes, some people are going to die despite our best efforts. And the emphasis on ventilators gives false hope, the prognosis is not good for anyone who gets to the point that they need to be on a vent. But most healthy people will not have serious complications when they are exposed.

A widespread capability to verify the presences of antibodies in people would be beneficial, but I'm not putting much confidence in that either.

The economic and societal fallout worries me more than the disease.

[pmac]

Originally Posted by oldpotatoe

Who thinks this whole gig will be any different until there's a vaccine?

Even if new cases decline to very small numbers, the risk is still there for those of who are 'at risk' or have a spouse who is 'at risk'...It doesn't matter if the risk of being infected is small, unless everybody is tested and regularly, and ALL those infected are isolated until they are either well or not, the risk of being infected is still there.

I don't expect to hug my grand daughters until their NEXT birthdays..April and May of 2021. Mom works in a hospital in Denver.

JimCav, show me a tunnel please so I can search for a wee light..

I don't have a magic ball but there does seem to be light at the end of the tunnel. There are lots of very dedicated, very competent scientists working very hard on this, in particular, developing detection tests that are fast, can be done in huge numbers and don't require the nasal swab (think saliva) so no need for medical personnel for sampling and therefore reduced need for PPEs. Once tests can be done on large populations, the successful approach used in some other countries in which infected individuals are identified rapidly, contacts are tested, and effective quarantine measures are used, can be adopted here. Then it becomes possible to keep infection to a low level in a population where many people have not been infected and are not immune. Taking the strain off the medical professionals means sooner and better care for those who do get infected and better outcomes. Then the vaccine becomes available, and things improve a lot.

This view, worth what you paid for it, is based on experience as a bio researcher and being in touch with people doing this work, not on what I've picked up from reading this thread. I'd be a lot more scared if I believed some of the anecdotal things that have come up here.

[joosttx]

Originally Posted by Ed-B

I'm guessing we're about two months away from civil unrest. The economy is shot.

Healthy people with families to feed, no job, no money, nothing to lose.

Everyone is wearing gloves and masks and there are lots of guns around. How convenient for armed robbery.

The economic and societal fallout could be very bad. We're going to need a set of economic stimulus and social support programs like the world has never seen to prevent total anarchy.

I hope I'm wrong...

You are.

[Ed-B]

Originally Posted by joosttx

You are.

Wrong? Maybe...

We're a few weeks behind Italy...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ting-and-riots

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-unrest-mounts

[unterhausen]

Originally Posted by Ed-B

But most healthy people will not have serious complications when they are exposed.

It's clear that a lot of people have the virus and don't know it. The story about Italian blood donors is a good example. OTOH, three 30-ish y.o. residents have died in NYC in the last 24 hours. It's really not clear what conditions lead to younger people or nominally healthy older people dying. It's easy to say that they died so they must have had comorbidity of some sort, but that's not a lot of comfort. Maybe things will become more clear as time goes on. The way the system works here, one of their survivors is going to have to pay their medical bills and probably their med school bills.

[colker]

Originally Posted by Ed-B

I'm guessing we're about two months away from civil unrest. The economy is shot.

Healthy people with families to feed, no job, no money, nothing to lose.

Everyone is wearing gloves and masks and there are lots of guns around. How convenient for armed robbery.

The economic and societal fallout could be very bad. We're going to need a set of economic stimulus and social support programs like the world has never seen to prevent total anarchy.

I hope I'm wrong...

I see some people taking this whole thing as hollydays and not obeying the rules of confinement while otoh there is the usual buy more ammo ignore government protect my property mode. It may sound like the natural way to do things but it isn´t.

A pandemia heightens the sense of collective responsability. Either you go with that or suffering will grow. Nations w/ way less means like India are keeping it under control.

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by AngryScientist

no way this is going on for another full year. the economy will crash completely, there will be civil unrest and organized crime will be a huge machine again. i'm guessing we're about a month away from a speakeasy boom where the drunks can congregate again.

once we get a handle on how long a sick person is contagious an if a previously infected person has true immunity - and we get a readily available rapid response test, we should be able to go back to relative normal.

test healthcare workers and others likely to come into contact with the test very regularly. test everyone else now. confine/quarantine every sick positive and we've got it.

that may not happen for a while, but it wont be a year either.

IMO, of course.

Geez..I hope so..testing and then isolation is key..testing is a sliver of where it should be..WPA to manufacturer's making test equipment..NOW, but of course that won't happen. "I haven't heard about problems with testing for a couple of weeks", "If you want a test, get a test, they are there and they are 'beautiful'....gads

Really pessimistic and discouraged right now..Grandaughter's birthdays, in 4 days and May 21st..

Once tests can be done on large populations, the successful approach used in some other countries in which infected individuals are identified rapidly, contacts are tested, and effective quarantine measures are used, can be adopted here.

Testing and then isolation is key..how about a WPA to 2-3 promising companies to develop a test, make millions of them, and have the Feds distribute them, how about a person(military) trained in supply and logistics run this show(a-political also)..HA, that's hillarious..I'm so frustrated, pissed off and pessimistic.

Is anarchy right around the corner? Don't know..MANY people are really hurting, are getting desperate, many are armed..

[AngryScientist]

Originally Posted by oldpotatoe

Really pessimistic and discouraged rght now..Grandaughter's birthdays, in 4 days and May 21st..

hang in there Peter. It'll get better before next year, i'm positive about it.

we're not religious folks at all, but our kids really love easter, which is what's bumming me out currently. at least my kids are still here with us and we'll do an easter egg hunt in the backyard, but it sure wont be the same this year. le sigh.

[colker]

Places where they test everybody have much more success than everybody else. There is no vaccine yet but there are tests.