O.t.tesla autonomy vehicle investor day

[bfd]

Mr. Pink said:

[Im pretty convinced that Musk has a serious drug problem, especially after his announcement about the leaf blowers. Its pretty amazing that a lot of fairly smart people with a lot of money still take him seriously.]

I agree that Elon is a bit eccentric, but he's smart. Not only did he build the best EVs on the market, he also build his network of superchargers. Based on Level 3 (Direct Current) charging, nothing else can match it. Yes, there may be other Level 3 chargers out there, but very few cars can take advantage of it.

[The plan here is to drain capital from places where it could do much more effective things and destroy our already woefully unfunded public transit system and create traffic nightmares all over America while making rich, bored, investors poorer in the process. It's bizarre.]

America's public transit system has much more problems than Tesla trying to drain capital from them. The bottom line is America has designed its infrastructure to cater to cars, not mass transit. For example, unlike Europe, America's suburbs are designed around malls and people driving. Most places have little to no public transit. Blaming Tesla for draining capital from these places is misplaced. In fact, if cars are the focus of our transportation system, then putting people in EVs is the proper thing to do.

[Teslas aren't being bought by dorks, they're being snapped up by men in midlife crisis mode to impress the next trophy wife, saying, I have money to waste, but, I'm also a sensitive guy. I care. My profession is probably destroying the world somehow, and I live in a house surrounded by similar homes that do much more harm to the climate than a mere auto, but, I care. Let's drive to my beach house I built on a fragile dune that's five times bigger than an average home, the home I use a few weeks a year. Don't worry, I left the air conditioning on.]

What's the problem here? Tesla is a new company and it makes sense to market to people with money. If "men in midlife crisis mode" don't buy a Tesla, then they buy cars built by BMW, MB and Audi. Or they go for the "sports car" and get a Porsche, Ferrari or a Vette. Further, Japanese mfrs, who do sell econo/compact cars, also play this game and market to this same group or haven't you heard of Acura (Honda), Lexus (Toyota) and Infiniti (Nissan). Bottom line, lots of people buy fancy cars so why shouldn't Tesla market to them?!

[And, Teslas are not "everywhere". You must live in a bubble like my hood, where everyone makes enormous amounts of money and spends it faster (and are probably as asset poor as a deplorable), but you should get out more. 80% percent of Americans can't afford an expensive fashion statement like a Tesla.]

Fair enough. I do live in the SF Bay Area and Teslas are everywhere here. You're right that probably 80% of the people can't afford a $40K+ car. Yet, there are hundred of thousands, if not millions of people buying high end cars from traditional mfrs (BMW, MB, Audi, Lexus, etc.). Moreover, a lot of people don't buy regular sedans/coupes anymore, but instead prefer trucks and SUVs. But have you seen the prices of these huge vehicles?! You can easily spend $60k+ for a Ford F150 truck loaded up and there vehicles like the Lincoln Navigator that can be loaded up to sell for $100K?! Tell me those aren't fashion statements.

Bottom line, if you're into EVs, Tesla is the best car on the market. If you prefer an ICE car, then look to the traditional mfrs. But all of them make cars as expensive as Tesla and some selling 2-3x or more.

I guess its sort of like bikes. You can go into a shop and buy a nice $500 bike or you can spend $15K+ for the latest and greatest. It all depends on your budget and priorities!

Of course, YMMV!

Good Luck!

[alancw3]

article in google news this morning that the new Tesla model Y roadster is claimed to have a range of 620 miles or just over 1000 km:

https://insideevs.com/news/346872/ne...er-range-high/

[verticaldoug]

Originally Posted by alancw3

article in google news this morning that the new Tesla model Y roadster is claimed to have a range of 620 miles or just over 1000 km:

https://insideevs.com/news/346872/ne...er-range-high/

The Y is the new crossover of the 3 which is due in 2021 or 22. The roadster is something new and due later.

He can hit the extended mileage now if they designed away the trunk to add battery capacity. The curb weight of the car will just have to increase by 1000 lbs or so which will hurt the handling.

Panasonic has already tweaked the chemistry and packaging (the real innovation in my opinion) to increase efficiency. Battery chemistry is not new and I'd be very skeptical about getting 100% increase in efficiency with some new discovery. Up until now, his increase mileage has largely come from increase the amount of battery directly increasing the weight of the car. The weight difference between the 40Kwh S and the 100kwh S (P100D) is 630lbs with a mileage difference of 196miles. If you try to push the chemistry too much in the battery, you eventually get thermal runaway and boom. It's a problem tesla is aware of and have filed various patents to try and solve. It also can happen if you have a rupture and short circuit in the battery.

[alancw3]

Originally Posted by verticaldoug

The Y is the new crossover of the 3 which is due in 2021 or 22. The roadster is something new and due later.

He can hit the extended mileage now if they designed away the trunk to add battery capacity. The curb weight of the car will just have to increase by 1000 lbs or so which will hurt the handling.

Panasonic has already tweaked the chemistry and packaging (the real innovation in my opinion) to increase efficiency. Battery chemistry is not new and I'd be very skeptical about getting 100% increase in efficiency with some new discovery. Up until now, his increase mileage has largely come from increase the amount of battery directly increasing the weight of the car. The weight difference between the 40Kwh S and the 100kwh S (P100D) is 630lbs with a mileage difference of 196miles. If you try to push the chemistry too much in the battery, you eventually get thermal runaway and boom. It's a problem tesla is aware of and have filed various patents to try and solve. It also can happen if you have a rupture and short circuit in the battery.

I agree at some point increasing the battery size becomes counter production in overall performance and handling. personally a new battery type breakthrough is what is needed to make electric cars more mainstay. it has been rumored for years that that is just around the corner, however it has not happened to date. let's keep our fingers crossed!

[Mr. Pink]

Originally Posted by bfd

America's public transit system has much more problems than Tesla trying to drain capital from them. The bottom line is America has designed its infrastructure to cater to cars, not mass transit. For example, unlike Europe, America's suburbs are designed around malls and people driving. Most places have little to no public transit. Blaming Tesla for draining capital from these places is misplaced. In fact, if cars are the focus of our transportation system, then putting people in EVs is the proper thing to do.

This is the same cynicism that is rooted in this flawed idea that Americans are indocrinated into, that we are exceptional, we are the best country in the world, we have made all the right decisions, and, if only the rest of the world would wise up and follow us. Or, maybe it's just worse, and, as you say, that's just the way it is, momentum and inertia and all that, can't be reversed, so, full steam ahead. It's why we can't have a sensible, humane health care system like every other nation in the developed world, because, no, no, we're different! We're exceptional! Yay, markets!
Most anyine can see that our devotion to the car and the paving over of exurbia that it enabled is the real enviornmental disaster here, and building millions of electric cars to accomadate that infrastructure is hardly the solution. Maybe auto emmisions will be cut, of course, but the ungodly sprawl of much more damaging homes and strip malls and corporate parks will continue, maybe even accelerate. And, of course, it's not as though the power needed to fuel these cars comes out of thin air. You tell me how we build a safe supply to recharge all of them. Be careful what you hope for. Just remember, the automobile was sold to the people as a pollution fix, because it would, and did, eliminate millions of tons of horse manure from the roads of America's cities and rural areas. How did that one work out?

Visit Europe sometime. It's nice. Tons of cheap to affordable transit on many levels. That's where those socialist nightmare governments decided to invest, instead of roads, roads, and more roads. People arent going bankrupt from cancer, either, but that's a whole other thing, I guess. It's right there, it can be done, as long as you first start thinking that it can. But, as long as our best and brightest continue to worship the quick buck and individual "freedom", we're doomed.

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by alancw3

I agree at some point increasing the battery size becomes counter production in overall performance and handling. personally a new battery type breakthrough is what is needed to make electric cars more mainstay. it has been rumored for years that that is just around the corner, however it has not happened to date. let's keep our fingers crossed!

Battery charging or battery swap as well as bigger range.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...E3EB&FORM=VIRE

[fkelly]

Battery charging or battery swap as well as bigger range.

The battery swapping idea has been around for a while: latest iteration is NIO in China:

https://www.teslarati.com/nio-batter...on-power-swap/

So far it has gone belly-up with every iteration. I think the batteries are too "designed-in" to the cars to make it practical. Musk's idea for robo-taxis might be a partial substitute. Just swap out the entire car when you need a charge.

Bigger range might be nice but most of us can't drive much beyond 300 miles without needing a break for other reasons than a fill-up. If you could be assured of swapping out the battery or the entire car in 15 minutes or less the whole idea could become practical.

Aside: a few years ago I visited an auto museum up in Saratoga Park (about a mile from the old Serotta factory). There were auto models from at least a dozen now-defunct manufacturers that had been popular in the 1920's. I think we're seeing that kind of "churn" with electric car and self-driving car companies now and will continue to see it for another decade until things settle out. Tesla may not be around after that and there will be some consolidation but it seems like the electric and self-driving ideas will dominate in the last 3/4 of 21 century. How exactly it will play out is anyone's guess.

[bfd]

Originally Posted by Mr. Pink

This is the same cynicism that is rooted in this flawed idea that Americans are indocrinated into, that we are exceptional, we are the best country in the world, we have made all the right decisions, and, if only the rest of the world would wise up and follow us. Or, maybe it's just worse, and, as you say, that's just the way it is, momentum and inertia and all that, can't be reversed, so, full steam ahead. It's why we can't have a sensible, humane health care system like every other nation in the developed world, because, no, no, we're different! We're exceptional! Yay, markets!
Most anyine can see that our devotion to the car and the paving over of exurbia that it enabled is the real enviornmental disaster here, and building millions of electric cars to accomadate that infrastructure is hardly the solution. Maybe auto emmisions will be cut, of course, but the ungodly sprawl of much more damaging homes and strip malls and corporate parks will continue, maybe even accelerate. And, of course, it's not as though the power needed to fuel these cars comes out of thin air. You tell me how we build a safe supply to recharge all of them. Be careful what you hope for. Just remember, the automobile was sold to the people as a pollution fix, because it would, and did, eliminate millions of tons of horse manure from the roads of America's cities and rural areas. How did that one work out?

Visit Europe sometime. It's nice. Tons of cheap to affordable transit on many levels. That's where those socialist nightmare governments decided to invest, instead of roads, roads, and more roads. People arent going bankrupt from cancer, either, but that's a whole other thing, I guess. It's right there, it can be done, as long as you first start thinking that it can. But, as long as our best and brightest continue to worship the quick buck and individual "freedom", we're doomed.

Europe is different. After WW2, when they rebuild, they too moved away from large cities and expanded to "suburbs," just like us. However, what they did smart was also extend their rail system so that people could travel from the burbs to the big city by mass transit. In contrast, America just built freeways and didn't invest in mass transit. So our system incorrectly evolved and now we are paying for it.

Further, with our current administration, he is trying to move back to oil and fossil fuel as our primary source of energy. Even if its proven to be more expensive than alternative energy sources like solar, wind and hydro!

Then there's health care. You're right, we should have universal healthcare like just about every other country. But our system is rooted in capitalism and that's not going to happen for a long time, if ever.

So if cars are our future and ev is one way to reduce emissions, how do we charge them? Elon is trying to make his network based on a sustainable source - solar. I'm not sure how that is going, but he is slowly upgrading his supercharger to be faster, probably more of a priority, as the v3 chargers can charge at 1000 miles/hour instead of 400 miles/hour. Amazing.... But if we can refocus our efforts on generating sustainable energy like solar and wind, that is one way we can stop from being doomed.

Further, there are bills and a movement to make denser housing and put businesses near transit. Not sure if that is a solution as people tend to want their own space/house, especially when they start having families. But if that does happen, then the theory is less people will want to own cars. I know, Good Luck!

[Mr. Pink]

Tax gas two or three bucks, at least, gradually over a decade. Easy. But, no, where's the unicorn hunting profit in that?

[MattTuck]

Good times....

apparently they're beginning to cut toilet paper from some Tesla facilities.

And employees are now detailing cars on their own time. Does anyone still believe this is a company deserving a $35B valuation?

One of the bottlenecks in deliveries is the detailing of the vehicles and as Tesla’s delivery volume increased, they relied on car washing businesses.

A source familiar with the matter says that some stores are now cutting down on the expense and in order to still complete the work, some employees are bringing the cars home and cleaning them on their own time.

https://electrek.co/2019/05/24/tesla...-toilet-paper/

Even if you create the best technology out there (which is debatable), you still need a viable business model to generate cash flows.

[alancw3]

yes, I guess at some point in time a new company has to put up or shut up. company with great ideas and poor execution to date. the other day there was an article in yahoo finance that apple had unsuccessfully tried to buy Tesla several years ago. just hope they can overcome their problems and become successful and survive. I also think that Wall Street is part of the problem with unrealistic expectations of the investment community.

[mistermo]

Originally Posted by MattTuck

Even if you create the best technology out there (which is debatable), you still need a viable business model to generate cash flows.

Which company comes even close? How is this debatable?

[MattTuck]

Originally Posted by mistermo

Which company comes even close? How is this debatable?

I'm not sure what information I could give you to convince you that the point is debatable because I don't know how strongly you hold the position that Tesla's technology is superior.

Many other companies have decided that it isn't worth the risk to their customers' lives to put an experimental product onto public roads. (See table below, Source) So it makes it quite difficult to compare prototype level features that are not public from other firms with prototype features from Tesla that are public. If we could get an apples to apples test at scale, it would make the debate much simpler.

In a 2019 study, Navigant ranked Tesla quite low in their autonomous vehicle ranking. (Source, Source)

A key factor in Navigant’s study is that its researchers evaluated companies based on actual autonomous features that need no human input, unlike Tesla’s Autopilot driver-assist system, which requires a fully alert human behind the wheel. It should also be noted that Tesla’s approach to attaining full-self driving is quite different than those employed by the leaders in Navigant’s research. For example, companies such as Waymo usually operate their self-driving vehicles exclusively in pre-determined areas, while Tesla does not.

Another quote from a recent article.

“It sounds like a pipe dream that he’s selling people,” said Raj Rajkumar, an electrical and computer engineering professor at Carnegie Mellon University.

And on the topic of actual vehicle performance, the rumors are out that the Porsche Taycan is targeting a sub-8 minute time at Nurburgring. The best Tesla time I could find was 9 minutes. Granted, the Tesla is available NOW, while the Taycan is slated for release later this year.

On the battery and charging technology, I am not aware of any other companies on par with Tesla.

Not sure if any of that moves the needle on whether it is debatable that Tesla's tech is superior.

[OtayBW]

What's interesting to me is that this whole thing is every bit about the AI Neural Net development as it is about the car - probably moreso. I just got done with a project where I collaborated with a world-class guy in this Deep Learning area, and it is is amazing what can be done. Even more amazing is what we will see in the short years to come....

[fiamme red]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/24/b...ceos-2018.html

Despite all the structural forces aiding companies’ bottom lines and stock prices, boards continue to act as if C.E.O.s have unique powers to deliver better returns — and have gone to great lengths to compensate them. The most prominent example: Tesla approved a pay package to Elon Musk valued at as much as $2.3 billion. It’s not just the highest sum for last year; it’s the biggest ever, according to compensation experts. (More on Mr. Musk below.)