Gravel Bike Progression

[geordanh]

Edit: I shouldn’t have mentioned my own custom. I do know what I want in terms of geo etc. But meant this more as a general discussion about where we think standards are going and what people think gravel bikes generally will look like down the line. /edit

So where does the paceline think gravel bikes are going to be ten years from now?

Here's my hunch:

Geo:

I think this is going to follow MTBs (longer, slack front ends). Lots of people are using their gravel/cx bikes for increasingly awesome descending and tech stuff. I think head angles around 69 or 70 will become the norm. Just like people have discovered a 66 degree HTA on a bike like the Tallboy is actually pretty rad and doesn't make you climb slower, just different, people are going to get more and more used to riding slack drop bar bikes. The downsides in handling quickness are more than made up for in descending stability.

Similarly, swapping stem length for top tube length (ie reach), unless you're racing tight CX courses, adds stability with very few handling downsides.

Unlike MTB, seat angles probably don't have quite as much room to move, and there's not the same justification for going crazy steep as there is on an MTB, but I could see things steepening somewhat.

Suspension
Uncertain to me. Lots of weight weenies racing and the benefits of most current suspension designs on washboard and the like seem pretty debated/uncertain. But, if Cannondale finds a way to get the ocho down to say sub 1000grams at 40mm of travel, maybe a combo of that up front with a rear system like from the topstone or Trek's ISOthing takes off. Generally people seem to be doing more aggressive stuff on drop bars which would justify suspension. My guess is that overall, damped, telescoping designs stay a niche in the market, with most gravel bikes staying light and racy.

Clearance
This was my main reason for going custom. Bigger bikes especially should have clearance for 29 inch tires, not just 650B. I think this will be the norm in a few years. 650B is cool, but 29 in my opinion as a tall person is so much better, especially without suspension. There are a lot of really fast MTB tires (continental race kings, ikons, etc) that are pretty quick on the road, and open up more interesting trail options for combo rides. It would be nice to fit those on 700c rims.

Axle/BB standards
This is what makes me the most nervous. How long do you guys think 142x12mm lasts? I am paranoid SRAM comes up with some new crank/BB gravel standard that combines an outward offset spider/chain ring with a low Q arm profile. Or something. This would let them justify moving to boost in the rear, or some other new bull**** like 146x11.5mm GRVL BÜST.

I don't necessarily think there's a good reason to change 142x12mm, but that won't stop SRAM.

What do you guys think?

[David Tollefson]

I've been building gravel frames long and slack for several years - more fc, less stem. 69-70 degrees hta is an awesome set up with 43-45mm rake.

29x2.0 isn't a big stretch with a normal 73mm threaded bsa bb. Boost? Maybe. I haven't seen the need myself. Go with sliding dropouts that allow you to swap them out, and you should be able to adapt to whatever axle standard comes along.

[Spoker]

If you're that worried about the bike, I would wait.
If I would to order a gravel bike now I will know what I like: Disc brakes; 2x; room for ~40 mm tires; enough weight over the front but essentially a comfortable road bike.

[Spdntrxi]

Originally Posted by geordanh

Soooo I just took the plunge for my first custom. There's a ten month wait which means I'm going to be agonizing about everything for a looong time. A custom is a big commitment and with standards changing so fast, I want to spec this so it stands the test of time as much as possible (really who wouldn't).

So where does the paceline think gravel bikes are going to be ten years from now?

Here's my hunch:

Geo:

I think this is going to follow MTBs (longer, slack front ends). Lots of people are using their gravel/cx bikes for increasingly awesome descending and tech stuff. I think head angles around 69 or 70 will become the norm. Just like people have discovered a 66 degree HTA on a bike like the Tallboy is actually pretty rad and doesn't make you climb slower, just different, people are going to get more and more used to riding slack drop bar bikes. The downsides in handling quickness are more than made up for in descending stability.

Similarly, swapping stem length for top tube length (ie reach), unless you're racing tight CX courses, adds stability with very few handling downsides.

Unlike MTB, seat angles probably don't have quite as much room to move, and there's not the same justification for going crazy steep as there is on an MTB, but I could see things steepening somewhat.

Suspension
Uncertain to me. Lots of weight weenies racing and the benefits of most current suspension designs on washboard and the like seem pretty debated/uncertain. But, if Cannondale finds a way to get the ocho down to say sub 1000grams at 40mm of travel, maybe a combo of that up front with a rear system like from the topstone or Trek's ISOthing takes off. Generally people seem to be doing more aggressive stuff on drop bars which would justify suspension. My guess is that overall, damped, telescoping designs stay a niche in the market, with most gravel bikes staying light and racy.

Clearance
This was my main reason for going custom. Bigger bikes especially should have clearance for 29 inch tires, not just 650B. I think this will be the norm in a few years. 650B is cool, but 29 in my opinion as a tall person is so much better, especially without suspension. There are a lot of really fast MTB tires (continental race kings, ikons, etc) that are pretty quick on the road, and open up more interesting trail options for combo rides. It would be nice to fit those on 700c rims.

Axle/BB standards
This is what makes me the most nervous. How long do you guys think 142x12mm lasts? I am paranoid SRAM comes up with some new crank/BB gravel standard that combines an outward offset spider/chain ring with a low Q arm profile. Or something. This would let them justify moving to boost in the rear, or some other new bull**** like 146x11.5mm GRVL BÜST.

I don't necessarily think there's a good reason to change 142x12mm, but that won't stop SRAM.

What do you guys think?

I go by my needs and not trends..

Geo : I dont want touring or MTB slack geo.. CX or close to road

Suspension : nothing built in.. I will decide if I need a suspension fork or suspension stem.. I dont want much travel and ended up getting a Redshift shockstem... so far so good.

Clearance : personally I'd like 650bx50 with clearance for mud. I currently dont have it because my gravel bike is a few years old versus something like explore or open up. I can do 650x45 with clearance.

Axles : prefer 12x100 12x142.. so I can do some wheel set sharing with other bikes .. no want to do anything boost.

[John H.]

You can only future proof a bike based on what you know right now-
For me, I wouldn't want many of the things that you are talking about.

Geometry- If I needed something slacker it would amount to a different bike. The experience that I want from a gravel bike is a road bike that I can take on trails.
For me- A 71 degree head angle with a 50-55mm rake fork works great.
That said, I did design my custom gravel bike so that I could run a slightly shorter stem than o my stock bikes. This gives me a little bit more front center, and more foot vs. tire clearance.

Suspension- Same. If I need suspension, I also feel like I am better off on a hardtail with flat bars. I have a hardtail that is as light as most any gravel bikes- So I feel like I don't need a suspension gravel bike.
Heck- I would entertain getting a custom hardtail 29er with the axles de-evolved to 100mm front and 12x142 rear. That way I could run my gravel tires and wheels only hardtail.

Tire clearance. Be careful what you ask for- With many bikes, if you want to run a 700x45-50 tire you also have to have significantly longer chainstays.
Also, big tires work better on a 1x setup. This is because that fat rear tire wants to sit where the back side of the front derailleur also sits.
So know what length chainstays you want and what type of drivetrain you will run.

[jtakeda]

What chainstay length are most people running and what kind of tire clearance?

The above is just curiosity for me.

I’d go 12x142 TA.
Threaded bb
Flat mount vs/iso mount is a big question I don’t know I have an answer to
1 1/8” steerer

I also think the longer tt shorter stem is a good design

[Jaybee]

I kinda think you want something (or maybe I want something) pretty close to the new Flaanimal 5.0. I agree with the sentiments above that getting too far into XC hardtail territory is not what I want from my drop bars on dirt experience. I might be under equipped in terms of HTA or suspension or front center sometimes, but that’s the core of the underbiking experience.

[Gummee]

I've seen several of them come and go over the years, so I'll pass on chasing trends.

...but... this isn't MY bike, so build what YOU want

M

[geordanh]

FWIW I have a pretty good idea of what I’m looking for in terms of geometry/design, and mocked something up the other day. The axle standards are the piece that worries me, but like someone mentioned, getting the right drop outs should allay that to some extent. I like to think t47 should be future proof, but bsa is probably a good bet too.

Builder thinks I should be able to cram a 29 x 2.2 into a 425mm stay with a bent seat tube which would be siiiick.

[geordanh]

Originally Posted by Jaybee

I kinda think you want something (or maybe I want something) pretty close to the new Flaanimal 5.0. I agree with the sentiments above that getting too far into XC hardtail territory is not what I want from my drop bars on dirt experience. I might be under equipped in terms of HTA or suspension or front center sometimes, but that’s the core of the underbiking experience.

I agree Flaanimal is pretty damn evolved and very near what I'm looking for, except it's not ti. They really nailed the design of it though.

[pdmtong]

What the future brings and when is unknown to all of us.

At least now many “standards” have been established.

As has been said. Think more about the places you will ride the gearing and the tires. Let that guide you.

This is consistent forum perspective

[Mattre]

Love this thread, Pretty soon they're going to be selling us today's hardtail 29ers as "evolved " gravel bikes. That tire clearance and slack geometry though! N+1!!

[geordanh]

Originally Posted by Mattre

Love this thread, Pretty soon they're going to be selling us today's hardtail 29ers as "evolved " gravel bikes. That tire clearance and slack geometry though! N+1!!

Oh for sure. As has been noted by many here and elsewhere gravel bikes are basically becoming mtbs with road cranks and shorter forks/longer HTs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[vqdriver]

Originally Posted by geordanh

Axle/BB standards
This is what makes me the most nervous. How long do you guys think 142x12mm lasts? I am paranoid SRAM comes up with some new crank/BB gravel standard that combines an outward offset spider/chain ring with a low Q arm profile. Or something. This would let them justify moving to boost in the rear, or some other new bull**** like 146x11.5mm GRVL BÜST.

I don't necessarily think there's a good reason to change 142x12mm, but that won't stop SRAM.

What do you guys think?

???
What's your beef with sram?
I dont know who developed boost, but it certainly wasn't for your gravel bike. Almost everything adopted by the gravel crowd has been pilfered from the mtb side. All these hydro brakes and boost hubs have been beta tested on trails where they serve an actual purpose. Then we hopped on that bandwagon when roads became a game of frogger.

Have fun with your custom because custom frames are fun when you get to play with all the different possibilities. But to design around what the future trends might be is going to prove fruitless. Spec the frame around the bike YOU want.

[Duende]

Have a completely different take on the future of gravel bikes.

Don’t think they will become closer to MTB’s via geo or suspension. Instead folks will recognize the importance of having the correct tool for the job.

Gravel bikes will be divided into two categories:

1. Endurance/touring - with tall head tubes, support for racks, and wider tires.

2. All Road Sport/Racing - with closer to road geo, smaller width tires, and no racks