Hey Jaybee: the 2021 NBA season has started.

[Louis]

Random addition to this thread:

I didn't know this, but I suppose I shouldn't be that surprised - Stephen Curry is way more ripped than I would have guessed:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/20/s...smid=url-share

[XXtwindad]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

There are no Chase regulars. They had four months of god awful basketball because everyone was hurt, then the season shut down and decamped for the summer/fall bubble.

The tech bros want to see the Death Lineup out there like it's 2015 before they hit the Caltrain back to Santa Clara. That's what got the arena built. What made the fanbase the fanbase was abandoned at Oracle for luxury box money in Mission Bay.

Father time's undefeated, great workout regimen or no. Curry's missed significant time because of his ankle as recently as 2017. Klay's coming back from a torn ACL. Draymond is clearly declining -- and his ceiling was the lowest of the group as it was. They're all over 30 now.

Those three guys won't be playing together in two years. Wiggins and Wiseman are 26 and 19, they're not going anywhere. Curry's the face of the franchise, he's staying even though his contract is up in 2022.

But we've seen the Ghost of Christmas future this year, assuming they ditch Klay. Curry has to play out of his mind, old Draymond has to show up in spurts, Wiggins becomes more consistent and Wiseman matures, and it's a .500 ballclub. If they ship out Draymond -- which we've seen in spurts this year -- the defense becomes a sieve and they fall apart.

Both Klay and Draymond are under contract through 2024. Who's more palatable to pay as a 35 year old? $43 million to Klay or $27 million to Dray? Neither seems particularly appealing, and none of that combo gets "Chase regulars" hyped.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbs...ayed-with/amp/

Green is averaging 8.7 assists a game, fifth best in the league. 19 assists in win over Denver. Can’t fake “smarts.”

[Jaybee]

I don't think anyone is saying that Draymond Green isn't a smart player, it's just that some of his skills and especially his athleticism have eroded compared to 3-4 years ago. Maybe last week, he had a dunk in transition and the announcers were agog at how got a step on his defender - "he's still got it!" and all I could see was how he barely got the ball over the rim even with a clean two step runway. On top of that, just watch how he's defended anytime he doesn't have the ball on the perimeter. His man is all the way in the middle of the lane - the Dubs are 4 vs. 5 in that scenario and while that might get you to the playoffs (maybe... they are still probably in the play-in) if Steph Curry goes incandescent, there is a hard cap on how much you can achieve there when good coaches have a chance to scheme and exploit that weakness.

Ironically enough, Dray was the guy that coined the 16 game player vs. 82 game player thing, and I think his current limitations have made him a playoff liability.

[joosttx]

Originally Posted by XXtwindad

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbs...ayed-with/amp/

Green is averaging 8.7 assists a game, fifth best in the league. 19 assists in win over Denver. Can’t fake “smarts.”

Irony.... but I agree.

[FlashUNC]

Originally Posted by XXtwindad

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbs...ayed-with/amp/

Green is averaging 8.7 assists a game, fifth best in the league. 19 assists in win over Denver. Can’t fake “smarts.”

I never said Draymond wasn't a smart player. He initiaties a lot of the action in the half court since Curry loves to do his off ball run around thing.

But the stats also match the eye test on this one. He's down to less than a block per game. His turnover ratio is the highest of his career. His defensive rebounding percentage is one of the lowest of his career. He's rarely doing the death lineup undersized 5 thing anymore to save wear and tear. He's shooting 24% from 3 point range. He's down to 6.6 points per game despite shooting a decent 42% from the floor as a whole. And that's miles away from the offensive efficiency the guy had in 2015-2016. Teams are going to abandon him wholesale in the playoffs and make him beat them offensively and it's not clear he's capable of that.

Ain't got nothing to do with smart.

[XXtwindad]

Originally Posted by joosttx

Irony.... but I agree.

Second lottery ticket in less than a month!

[XXtwindad]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

I never said Draymond wasn't a smart player. He initiaties a lot of the action in the half court since Curry loves to do his off ball run around thing.

But the stats also match the eye test on this one. He's down to less than a block per game. His turnover ratio is the highest of his career. His defensive rebounding percentage is one of the lowest of his career. He's rarely doing the death lineup undersized 5 thing anymore to save wear and tear. He's shooting 24% from 3 point range. He's down to 6.6 points per game despite shooting a decent 42% from the floor as a whole. And that's miles away from the offensive efficiency the guy had in 2015-2016. Teams are going to abandon him wholesale in the playoffs and make him beat them offensively and it's not clear he's capable of that.

Ain't got nothing to do with smart.

He hasn't slipped that much defensively. He was never a prolific shot-blocker, so that's not really relevant. Despite his defensive prowess, he's never averaged above ten boards a game, so hard to see how that's really slipped. And he's averaging the second most steals of his career.

The problem (as you mentioned) is on the offensive end. He was never a great shooter, but he's even worse now. I think he's still a great player within Golden State's system.

[FlashUNC]

Originally Posted by XXtwindad

He hasn't slipped that much defensively. He was never a prolific shot-blocker, so that's not really relevant. Despite his defensive prowess, he's never averaged above ten boards a game, so hard to see how that's really slipped. And he's averaging the second most steals of his career.

The problem (as you mentioned) is on the offensive end. He was never a great shooter, but he's even worse now. I think he's still a great player within Golden State's system.

Second lowest defensive rebound percentage of his career, only above his rookie season. Second lowest overall rebound percentage of his career. So of all the available rebounds to him, he's hoovering them up at the lowest rate of his career. We'll throw out offensive rebound percentage as that's largely scheme-based, but that's also second lowest of his career. And even as you point out but dismiss, the counting stats in that particular area are declining. And hasn't slipped defensively? One metric to get a sense of that is personal fouls per game. What a shock this season as he's slowing down he's reaching more, and committing the second highest number of personal fouls per game in his career.

My original point still stands. Do you want to pay this guy $27 million dollars in 2023/2024? When he's averaging right now 6/6/9 and shooting 40% from the floor? Those numbers are only going to get worse the next couple years. He'll still have his moments, all great players do, but to pretend this isn't the process of a decline for his game is silly.

[XXtwindad]

Maybe “confounding” is a better term.

Headed for a triple double season. Again. Remarkable athlete. About to surpass the “Big O” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...ouble.amp.html

But ... no hardware. Far from it. Tough to rank him in the pantheon of all-time greats. Certainly not top five. (Magic, Big O, Stockton, Curry, Isaiah) Top ten? Curious why all those gaudy stats don’t translate into playoff W’s.

Will the Paceline OKC Fan Club President (and thread namesake) give his take?

[joosttx]

Originally Posted by XXtwindad

Maybe “confounding” is a better term.

Headed for a triple double season. Again. Remarkable athlete. About to surpass the “Big O” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...ouble.amp.html

But ... no hardware. Far from it. Tough to rank him in the pantheon of all-time greats. Certainly not top five. (Magic, Big O, Stockton, Curry, Isaiah) Top ten? Curious why all those gaudy stats don’t translate into playoff W’s.

Will the Paceline OKC Fan Club President (and thread namesake) give his take?

Never won a championship even with greats around him. He is even behind AI as great ball hog guards. Sorry not paraphrasing a NYT article just my educated opinion.

[XXtwindad]

Originally Posted by joosttx

Never won a championship even with greats around him. He is even behind AI as great ball hog guards. Sorry not paraphrasing a NYT article just my educated opinion.

Really interesting how stats don’t show the whole story. I think he’s one unquestionably of the best athletes of the modern era but a mediocre “floor general.”

[Jaybee]

Originally Posted by XXtwindad

Maybe “confounding” is a better term.

Headed for a triple double season. Again. Remarkable athlete. About to surpass the “Big O” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...ouble.amp.html

But ... no hardware. Far from it. Tough to rank him in the pantheon of all-time greats. Certainly not top five. (Magic, Big O, Stockton, Curry, Isaiah) Top ten? Curious why all those gaudy stats don’t translate into playoff W’s.

Will the Paceline OKC Fan Club President (and thread namesake) give his take?

Russ is both one of my favorite players, and one of the most infuriating. Incredibly driven, pathologically competitive, so much so that he is unwilling to see his own limitations or make those around him better. He puts up numbers, but at what cost? As a short time OKC resident he will always have my heart for signing an extension after KD left, for carrying that team on his back in 2017 and for the sheer entertainment he provides. He racks up assists, but somehow doesn't run the offense. OKC was something like 90% winning percentage when he racked a triple-double, but somehow, it seemed to be all him and no one else. Some criticism is due to the OKC front office here - if your best player is going to be a ball-dominant, below average shooting PG, then you have to surround him with 4 other shooters all. the. time.

I think it's a little unfair to criticize the lack of rings, or say he was never close:
1 - the NBA discourse around individual players is too championship-centric anyway. It's a team game, and though a transcendent player (or honestly, two or three now) is required to be in the contenders conversation, focusing only on championships misses out on all the other fascinating stuff that occurs during the season and non-Finals playoffs and devalues the accomplishments of some really great players.
2 - The Thunder were really really close in 2012 (in the Finals) and only a nuclear Klay 8 minutes in 2016 prevented them from winning a ring that year. It's fair to point out that Russ was the second best player on both those teams, and also that he was wrecking the 2016 Warriors as a PNR ball-handler.

Finally, I think CP3 belongs on your list of top 5 PGs.

[XXtwindad]

Originally Posted by Jaybee

Russ is both one of my favorite players, and one of the most infuriating. Incredibly driven, pathologically competitive, so much so that he is unwilling to see his own limitations or make those around him better. He puts up numbers, but at what cost? As a short time OKC resident he will always have my heart for signing an extension after KD left, for carrying that team on his back in 2017 and for the sheer entertainment he provides. He racks up assists, but somehow doesn't run the offense. OKC was something like 90% winning percentage when he racked a triple-double, but somehow, it seemed to be all him and no one else. Some criticism is due to the OKC front office here - if your best player is going to be a ball-dominant, below average shooting PG, then you have to surround him with 4 other shooters all. the. time.

I think it's a little unfair to criticize the lack of rings, or say he was never close:
1 - the NBA discourse around individual players is too championship-centric anyway. It's a team game, and though a transcendent player (or honestly, two or three now) is required to be in the contenders conversation, focusing only on championships misses out on all the other fascinating stuff that occurs during the season and non-Finals playoffs and devalues the accomplishments of some really great players.
2 - The Thunder were really really close in 2012 (in the Finals) and only a nuclear Klay 8 minutes in 2016 prevented them from winning a ring that year. It's fair to point out that Russ was the second best player on both those teams, and also that he was wrecking the 2016 Warriors as a PNR ball-handler.

Finally, I think CP3 belongs on your list of top 5 PGs.

Bold move. Who are you booting? The all-time assists and steals leader or the two-time championship “Bad Boy” leader?

[Jaybee]

Originally Posted by XXtwindad

Bold move. Who are you booting? The all-time assists and steals leader or the two-time championship “Bad Boy” leader?

Steph. Best shooter ever. Significantly responsible for the modern game and every 14 year old practicing 30 footers in his driveway. Tremendously entertaining. Not one of the 5 best PGs.

[joosttx]

Originally Posted by XXtwindad

Really interesting how stats don’t show the whole story. I think he’s one unquestionably of the best athletes of the modern era but a mediocre “floor general.”

Why? Stats have never showed the whole story. "Best Athlete" is code for underachiever which I don't think is the best way to characterize RW3.