OT - Dow plunges 1,175 - worst point decline in history

[2000m2]

When reading economic forecasts like this:

"This month’s payroll release of a decline in payroll jobs by 701,000 is an 11-sigma event compared with the recent past — totally different from the February data — and there is no need to look at the recent past to interpret the recent data."
https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/center...sis-march-2020

In the back of my mind, I also have Warren Buffett's October 2008 NYTimes article:

"A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors."
https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/o...17buffett.html

Buying now may be early, but no one knows where the bottom is and those waiting for it will miss it.

"What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over."

Stay safe!

[azrider]

Originally Posted by Clean39T

The BigAg system in the US is such a clusterfuggle......massive source of pollution and primary contributor to lifestyle diseases, and it's propped up with tax dollars..

Our family owns roughly 800 acres of farmland in Northern Illinois and we grow soybeans and corn (primarily) and I'm curious to hear your thoughts on where you got that "massive" number from and more importantly, how farming contributes to lifestyle diseases?

"Propped up" is a cute term to use also. What do you mean by that?

[jimcav]

I really doubt 800 acres is subsidized, but there are large subsidies going to the largest "farmers".

This article doesn't even address environmental impacts, but:

"Out of all the crops that farmers grow, the government only subsidizes five of them. They are corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and rice.

"These grains provide 80% of the world's caloric needs. Grains can also be stored and affordably shipped. The top five states receiving subsidies are Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Arkansas, and Illinois. In 2017, they received 38.5% of the $7.2 billion distributed, per the EWG Farm Subsidy Database."

"Subsidies act like a regressive tax that helps high-income businesses, not poor rural farmers. Most of the money goes toward large agribusinesses. Between 1995 and 2017, the top 10% of recipients received 77% of the $205.4 billion doled out, according to EWG. The top 1% received 26% of the payments. That averages out to $1.7 million per company. Fifty people on the Forbes 400 list of the wealthiest Americans received farm subsidies. On the other hand, 62% of U.S. farms did not receive any subsidies"

https://www.thebalance.com/farm-subsidies-4173885

[echappist]

Originally Posted by azrider

Our family owns roughly 800 acres of farmland in Northern Illinois and we grow soybeans and corn (primarily) and I'm curious to hear your thoughts on where you got that "massive" number from and more importantly, how farming contributes to lifestyle diseases?

"Propped up" is a cute term to use also. What do you mean by that?

Are you really ignorant or just feigning ignorance?

If it is the former, you can disabuse yourself by reading the following. If it's the latter, well, you obviously already know how the government props up agribusiness.

It's a report from that [s] pinko-commie outfit known as the Cato Institute [/s]. I could have picked one from a more politically neutral source, but thought, what the heck, let's see what a rightward-leaning organization has to say about it. Shall we?

https://www.cato.org/publications/ta...-farm-policies

The federal government spends more than $20 billion a year on subsidies for farm businesses. About 39 percent of the nation’s 2.1 million farms receive direct subsidies, with the lion’s share of the handouts going to the largest producers of corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and rice.

[Clean39T]

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[azrider]

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[azrider]

Originally Posted by echappist

Are you really ignorant

I stopped reading after this. Not only should you re-read the rules, but you should stop acting like a tough guy online. I doubt you'd say that to someones face would you?

[verticaldoug]

Originally Posted by 2000m2

When reading economic forecasts like this:

"This month’s payroll release of a decline in payroll jobs by 701,000 is an 11-sigma event compared with the recent past — totally different from the February data — and there is no need to look at the recent past to interpret the recent data."
https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/center...sis-march-2020

In the back of my mind, I also have Warren Buffett's October 2008 NYTimes article:

"A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors."
https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/o...17buffett.html

Buying now may be early, but no one knows where the bottom is and those waiting for it will miss it.

"What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over."

Stay safe!

True, but just like a spring, you need to think of the elastic limit of the economy. For typical earthquakes, a well designed building sways, but if the amplitude is too large, or lasts too long, eventually you can have a structural failure.

I am not saying the US economy is going to fail, but an 11 sigma event is not even the largest event you will see in the near future. There will be a series of events which are progressively larger. April NFP will be north of 10,000,000 losses. What sigma is that?

Lehman Brothers collapse was Oct 13, 2008, but lows in the stock market was not until March 2009.

We have also gone from an event we thought was shorter in duration, to longer and more global.... The shockwaves are still propagating.

I like Warren, but he is much more clever and much less folksy then he pretends. Watch what he does, not what he says. He is still selling his airline holdings as we write this.
After the March 2009 low, you were only back 50% in March 2010, which was still down 40% from May 2008. Right now, you are not even down 40% from the highs. Investors are optimistic. Bear markets don't end in optimism, they end in despair. . Your biggest enemy here will be being anchored on the backside thinking because you didn't buy the low, now you missed it. I'm not arrogant enough to think I need to catch a falling knife. I am happy to play defense now and buy last man standing type cash flows, and later on as things become more visible, I can get more speculative. I just have to fight the 20/20 hindsight glasses which are an anchor.

We use to joke in 2009 in Russian stocks what's the difference between a stock down 80% and one down 90%. When the stock rebounds 100% from the low, it's still down 80% from the previous high. Amazing how many people got anchored to missing the bottom.

[echappist]

Originally Posted by azrider

I stopped reading after this. Not only should you re-read the rules, but you should stop acting like a tough guy online. I doubt you'd say that to someones face would you?

The tone was overheated, for that I apologize. You are right, i’m too quick to judge these days and could have used more prudence. It's a timely reminder, especially as the issue has flared up for me recently in a way that I haven't experienced since I got out of grad school

But you called a well-known (propping up of agribusiness) as idea “cute”, as to dismiss it. You took that line as if it were to have impugned the dignity of you and your family, and responded in a way that someone who is slighted would. Never mind that the statement is true, and that it most likely doesnt pertain to your situation. You took a discussion of ideas and made it personal, expressing outrage with a snarky retort. If you want to talk civility, then that horse bolted the moment you responded

As for whether i’d do this in real life, most likely we won’t be conversing about anything of substance in the first place, alas nothing that may be a personal hot-button gets discussed. This place brings in multitudes, and i have learned much from many posters, and not just on brainy matters. In real life, i very rarely discussed anything more than the perfunctory while riding with people. Of course, i have cyclists friends with whom i discuss intellectual ideas, but those don’t occur when i just met them.

[verticaldoug]

I just want to know which rig AZ lets his son drive. Be cool to be his son.

[echappist]

@verticaldoug, from time to time I go through certain sections of this thread (usually the portions around the time when markets drop), as knowledgeable contributors would invariably post something informative.

You had posted two excerpts of the book "Myth of Capitalism". I scanned the excerpts and realized that it's primarily concerned with the topic of monopolistic practices.

If you have read the book, do you think it provides a better understanding of this particular version neo-liberal capitalism at large?

[azrider]

Originally Posted by verticaldoug

I just want to know which rig AZ lets his son drive. Be cool to be his son.

The answer? All of em








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[93KgBike]

Originally Posted by azrider

The answer? All of em

Outstanding.

The family and I watched LiveAid performances on YT...

FarmAid is gonna go up next.

[merlinmurph]

FWIW, I appreciate people admitting that they wrote an emotional post, may have come off a little strong, apologizing, and reconsidering their thoughts.

This is a tough time, people can be under stress, and I know I can have a short trigger sometimes.

Thanks for keeping things civil.

Stay safe and enjoy your ride.

[Clean39T]

Originally Posted by merlinmurph

FWIW, I appreciate people admitting that they wrote an emotional post, may have come off a little strong, apologizing, and reconsidering their thoughts.



This is a tough time, people can be under stress, and I know I can have a short trigger sometimes.



Thanks fir keeping things civil.



Stay safe and enjoy your ride.

+1 - be generous to eachother......

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