OT: I hope this youtube video can help calm people down, it did me! ( virus content )

[fignon's barber]

Originally Posted by SoCalSteve

Anyone watch this?

No comments?

Hopefully you are all out riding and keeping your distance.

I'm involved in this field (on the diagnosing/testing side) and I watched the whole 57 minutes. Well explained, practical, no hysteria. thanks for posting!

[m_sasso]

Thanks for posting Steve, hopefully helpful for people with some understanding of growth, metabolism, reaction to stimuli, and reproduction.

[vincenz]

I believe the risk is extremely low to catch it in an aerosol form if in an outdoor environment, but in confined spaces for a length of time, it can happen, and at an alarming rate, as seen in the Washington choir group incident.

I would not be without a face covering at this point in a supermarket, especially if going later in the day or evening.

[Clean39T]

Originally Posted by vincenz

I believe the risk is extremely low to catch it in an aerosol form if in an outdoor environment, but in confined spaces for a length of time, it can happen, and at an alarming rate, as seen in the Washington choir group incident.

I would not be without a face covering at this point in a supermarket, especially if going later in the day or evening.

Makes me wonder how much could be achieved with better HVAC and/or some large fans..... probably better to hit Costco than a Bodega?

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[SoCalSteve]

Bumping this to the top so others may click on the YouTube link.

[ERK55]

The video is reassuring in many ways, particularly as it is coming from an intensivist/pulmonologist.
Unfortunately he can’t explain the huge variation in the immunologic response to this infection. Not only elderly debilitated people are dying; “low risk” individuals can deteriorate very quickly and die. Of course no one else is explaining that either.

[lavi]

Aside from the fact that everyone has an opinion, I really appreciated the video and have forwarded to some others. I really hope he's accurate. At the VERY least, it calmed me down a bit. I can stop giving everyone (outside of my home) the death stare.

Thank you Steve!

[fiamme red]

"Is the coronavirus airborne? Experts can’t agree": https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00974-w

Aerosols are also more likely to be produced by talking and breathing, which might even constitute a bigger risk than sneezing and coughing, says virologist Julian Tang at the University of Leicester, UK. “When someone’s coughing, they turn away, and when they’re sneezing, they turn away,” he says. That’s not the case when we talk and breathe...

The assumption should be that airborne transmission is possible unless experimental evidence rules it out, not the other way around, says Tang. That way people can take precautions to protect themselves, he says...

Dr. Price is no expert on this subject. Follow his advice at your own risk.

[SoCalSteve]

Originally Posted by fiamme red

"Is the coronavirus airborne? Experts can’t agree": https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00974-w

Dr. Price is no expert on this subject. Follow his advice at your own risk.

I’ll comment on this as a bump to the top excuse...

If a frontline pulmonary ICU doctor at a premier hospital in New York City, who has been working 12 hour shifts for weeks exclusively around COVID 19 patients, I don’t know who is an expert then.

[fiamme red]

Originally Posted by SoCalSteve

I’ll comment on this as a bump to the top excuse...

If a frontline pulmonary ICU doctor at a premier hospital in New York City, who has been working 12 hour shifts for weeks exclusively around COVID 19 patients, I don’t know who is an expert then.

Sorry, I respect him for working 12-hour front-line shifts, but that doesn't validate his claims. How can he say for certain, based on his own experience, that washing your hands and not touching your face will prevent transmission 99% of the time?

Quoting from the best comment I've seen on the video (of which the entirety is below):

"Again, he may be able to comment that the people getting sickest got infected through sustained contact in their homes and hand-to-face. He cannot state based on his practice alone that this is accounts for the epidemiology of the virus, and implying so is dangerous if others re-share it widely. Perhaps he is distilling epidemiological research data I haven't seen yet, but that was not clear from the video. Doctors need to be very careful not to impersonate infectious disease scientists or epidemiologists right now, people who repost them could end up killing more people than they save. Sorry to have to put it so harshly, but words can have deadly effect right now."

The pitfall I see here is that Dr. Price appears to be basing his conclusions on the people who are the most sick and coming to the hospital with COVID19, and then extrapolating this to community transmission of the virus SARS-CoV-2 itself, which is commonly asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic. He throws out a made up statistic about the percentage of transmission other than hand-to-face (“0.001%”??). He does not have the basis from clinical experience alone to tell us that, for instance, when a person on a subway sneezes, creating a 26 ft cloud of active virus droplets, this doesn’t infect some number of virus carriers, who then go and infect their household members through “sustained contact over several days”, creating sick people who come to his hospital. That's just a purely hypothetical example to illustrate the point that viral spread can be more complicated than just looking at the background of some very sick people and medical professionals who are not getting sick. I certainly don't have all the answers either. Scientists are still uncertain about similar questions from the previous major zoonotic coronaviruses, SARS-1 and MERS.
https://news.mit.edu/2014/coughs-and...ther-you-think

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2763852

https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.c...879-019-3707-y
("Recognition of aerosol transmission of infectious agents: a commentary")
It may be true that people tend to get most sick after sustained exposure versus other modes, as he is seeing. This kind of effect is well known among other pathogens and can depend on the dosage of pathogen or the tissue in which infection is initiated. This does not equate to a full picture of viral transmission and epidemiology.
https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.c...879-019-3707-y
("Recognition of aerosol transmission of infectious agents: a commentary")
The valid, actionable take-homes from what he says which I agree with fully are: wear the best mask you have, improve hand awareness, and don’t touch your face. Some of the other information is untrue, and the advice contradictory, unfortunately. Nonetheless the intention is pure and much of the content useful. He is probably exhausted physically and emotionally, and trying to provide useful, hopeful information, and I admire him greatly for that. I know I am struggling mightily to only disseminate accurate, useful information in this challenging time, especially given the rate at which updates are flying at us.

Again, he may be able to comment that the people getting sickest got infected through sustained contact in their homes and hand-to-face. He cannot state based on his practice alone that this is accounts for the epidemiology of the virus, and implying so is dangerous if others re-share it widely. Perhaps he is distilling epidemiological research data I haven't seen yet, but that was not clear from the video. Doctors need to be very careful not to impersonate infectious disease scientists or epidemiologists right now, people who repost them could end up killing more people than they save. Sorry to have to put it so harshly, but words can have deadly effect right now.

Regarding the fallacy of equating symptoms to presence of virus:

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/con....25.11.2000230
paucisymptomatic case study

This infected Italian patient was tested after a short trip to China in which he had no prolonged contact with anyone who was symptomatic, and after recovering from his very mild symptoms continued to test positive in his stool well after multiple nasopharyngeal swab tests were negative.

[lavi]

Originally Posted by SoCalSteve

I’ll comment on this as a bump to the top excuse...

If a frontline pulmonary ICU doctor at a premier hospital in New York City, who has been working 12 hour shifts for weeks exclusively around COVID 19 patients, I don’t know who is an expert then.

Concur. While it may not be 100% spot on, I do give credence to what he says. It is a nice break from the unknown and histeria. In the end, we'll all do what we want.

This video helped me calm down a little, and for that I'm thankful. I have 14 and 12 yo kids...with an incoming baby (mid-May due date). So I'm grabbing anything to help buoy and calm my nerves. This helped.

[jimcav]

Originally Posted by fiamme red

Sorry, I respect him for working 12-hour front-line shifts, but that doesn't validate his claims. How can he say for certain, based on his own experience, that washing your hands and not touching your face will prevent transmission 99% of the time?

Quoting from the best comment I've seen on the video (of which the entirety is below):

"Again, he may be able to comment that the people getting sickest got infected through sustained contact in their homes and hand-to-face. He cannot state based on his practice alone that this is accounts for the epidemiology of the virus, and implying so is dangerous if others re-share it widely. Perhaps he is distilling epidemiological research data I haven't seen yet, but that was not clear from the video. Doctors need to be very careful not to impersonate infectious disease scientists or epidemiologists right now, people who repost them could end up killing more people than they save. Sorry to have to put it so harshly, but words can have deadly effect right now."

There is very limitied date so far on methods of transmission--plenty of assumptions and speculation.

What studies there are DO show the virus present in sampled ambient air in hosptial isolation rooms (not just "droplets"), as well as surfaces, feces, etc.

The degree to which different posible mechanisms of exposure actually convey infection (inhalation of droplets, inhalation of virus in the air, hand-to-surface-to-face, etc) is not yet known.

What is known is that MORE exposure is not good, or sai another way, anythiig to limit exposure is good. If one was to err in a direction, I'd suggest chooing more conservative route (in terms of doing MORE to limit exposure)

[SoCalSteve]

Originally Posted by jimcav

There is very limitied date so far on methods of transmission--plenty of assumptions and speculation.

What studies there are DO show the virus present in sampled ambient air in hosptial isolation rooms (not just "droplets"), as well as surfaces, feces, etc.

The degree to which different posible mechanisms of exposure actually convey infection (inhalation of droplets, inhalation of virus in the air, hand-to-surface-to-face, etc) is not yet known.

What is known is that MORE exposure is not good, or sai another way, anythiig to limit exposure is good. If one was to err in a direction, I'd suggest chooing more conservative route (in terms of doing MORE to limit exposure)

Thank you!

Safer at home...it’s right there in the title.