OT: 2019-20 NBA Discussions - Page 11

Jaybee · #**151** 10-02-2019, 10:53 AM

days left.

I really hope this guy gets back to his old self this year.

Jaybee · #**152** 10-03-2019, 10:51 AM

Days left.

XXtwindad · #**153** 10-03-2019, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jaybee

Days left.

I'll see your Sam and raise you. Best NBA mullet ever.

Jaybee · #**154** 10-03-2019, 12:01 PM

BTW, here are the Caesar's O/Us for the year. Anything stand out to you?

I like the W's under - no depth, three playoff-level NBA starters, and I predict that they won't bring Klay back in March when they are 6 games back of the 8 seed.
OKC has extremely high variability - they could keep everyone they got in the offseason and be a 38-40 win team, or CP could be in Miami and Danilo in Portland and maybe even Adams moves and then they are a sub-30 win team.

I like the Sixers under. They are going to be resting Embiid and Horford a bunch, then they are going to rip through the East playoffs and I am very much looking forward to the Bucks-Sixers ECF.

Nuggets - under. Last year was a perfect storm, and they dramatically outperformed their net rating with an unsustainable record in close games. They will be a better team, and have 2-3 wins less than they did in 2019.

Finally, just for some optimism - I like what NO is building. I'll take their over.

XXtwindad · #**155** 10-03-2019, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jaybee

BTW, here are the Caesar's O/Us for the year. Anything stand out to you?

I like the W's under - no depth, three playoff-level NBA starters, and I predict that they won't bring Klay back in March when they are 6 games back of the 8 seed.
OKC has extremely high variability - they could keep everyone they got in the offseason and be a 38-40 win team, or CP could be in Miami and Danilo in Portland and maybe even Adams moves and then they are a sub-30 win team.

I like the Sixers under. They are going to be resting Embiid and Horford a bunch, then they are going to rip through the East playoffs and I am very much looking forward to the Bucks-Sixers ECF.

Nuggets - under. Last year was a perfect storm, and they dramatically outperformed their net rating with an unsustainable record in close games. They will be a better team, and have 2-3 wins less than they did in 2019.

Finally, just for some optimism - I like what NO is building. I'll take their over.

I think the Lakers are the most overhyped team in the league. Erratic GM (LeBron) injury prone superstar (AD) and declining diva (Dwight). LBJ torched that franchise.

Can't agree with you on NO. I just don't trust having your franchise player be that bulky. Outside of LBJ, who is a true unicorn, there's just no precedent for it.

I really like the top five rankings. I'd flip the Bucks and Clips, but other than that. Also, what's the deal with KAT? it seems like a player of this stature would have his team more highly ranked. I kinda get the feeling that he might be a "better on paper" player …

Jaybee · #**156** 10-03-2019, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by XXtwindad

I think the Lakers are the most overhyped team in the league. Erratic GM (LeBron) injury prone superstar (AD) and declining diva (Dwight). LBJ torched that franchise.

Can't agree with you on NO. I just don't trust having your franchise player be that bulky. Outside of LBJ, who is a true unicorn, there's just no precedent for it.

I really like the top five rankings. I'd flip the Bucks and Clips, but other than that. Also, what's the deal with KAT? it seems like a player of this stature would have his team more highly ranked. I kinda get the feeling that he might be a "better on paper" player …

I hear you on Zion. It concerns me regarding his longevity. I think for 3-5 years though, he's going to be amazing. Though he is their franchise future, he's also not their best player - that's Jrue Holiday. I really just like the fit of the Lakers pieces they got plus Redick plus Favors. They will have a killer defense, and it's not hard to imagine how you could build a functional and fun offense out of those pieces.

KAT is really good. Their problem is that RoCo is their second best player, and the NW division (and thus their schedule) is just murder.

RonW87 · #**157** 10-03-2019, 12:52 PM

Unless the Raps start trading Lowry, Gasol, Ibaka, etc. to jump-start a rebuild, no way they are only a 45 win team. They haven't won less than 48 games in any of the last seven season. Even in Kawhi "load management" rest games last year, they were 17-5.

The over-under must be betting on a rebuild year. But I think that'll be hard to do if the Raptors get to mid-season in third seed or so, which is quite doable.

Jaybee · #**158** 10-03-2019, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonW87

Unless the Raps start trading Lowry, Gasol, Ibaka, etc. to jump-start a rebuild, no way they are only a 45 win team. They haven't won less than 48 games in any of the last seven season. Even in Kawhi "load management" rest games last year, they were 17-5.

The over-under must be betting on a rebuild year. But I think that'll be hard to do if the Raptors get to mid-season in third seed or so, which is quite doable.

I agree with most of this. I think the O/U prices in the public perception of how important Kawhi was. Caesar's wants roughly even money on both sides of that line. I do think it will be interesting to see how well Siakam does as a primary option and would argue that the most important thing for the Raps to figure out this year is if he is a max extension guy or not. Ujiri has never been sentimental - if he sees a way to spin Ibaka and Lowry into some rebuild pieces that keep the franchise in East contender territory for the next 5-7 years, he will do it.

FlashUNC · #**159** 10-03-2019, 02:18 PM

Hawks at 36 seems a bit optimistic, but then again they are getting Collins back healthy and Trae Young started to show everyone why Schleck picked him over Doncic in the second half of last year.

So maybe they suprise to the upside. If they hit 40 wins I'll be a thrilled Hawks fan.

XXtwindad · #**160** 10-03-2019, 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

Hawks at 36 seems a bit optimistic, but then again they are getting Collins back healthy and Trae Young started to show everyone why Schleck picked him over Doncic in the second half of last year.

So maybe they suprise to the upside. If they hit 40 wins I'll be a thrilled Hawks fan.

Once upon a time ...

Jaybee · #**161** 10-03-2019, 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

Hawks at 36 seems a bit optimistic, but then again they are getting Collins back healthy and Trae Young started to show everyone why Schleck picked him over Doncic in the second half of last year.

So maybe they suprise to the upside. If they hit 40 wins I'll be a thrilled Hawks fan.

The Hawks had the point differential of a 24 win team last year, and had some things break their way to get 29 wins. So it's entirely possible that they are under 36 and still vastly better than they were last year. There's a lot to like in the way that team is being built.

Some other thoughts I had during the lunch ride today - I think the Rockets are going to put up crazy offensive numbers this year. I'm excited to see Russ with honest-to-god shooters/spacing around him. I kinda think Portland is going under 47.5, but they are always over, even when you don't understand why. If they can find a legit 3, I think it puts them in the WCF conversation.

FlashUNC · #**162** 10-03-2019, 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jaybee

The Hawks had the point differential of a 24 win team last year, and had some things break their way to get 29 wins. So it's entirely possible that they are under 36 and still vastly better than they were last year. There's a lot to like in the way that team is being built.

Some other thoughts I had during the lunch ride today - I think the Rockets are going to put up crazy offensive numbers this year. I'm excited to see Russ with honest-to-god shooters/spacing around him. I kinda think Portland is going under 47.5, but they are always over, even when you don't understand why. If they can find a legit 3, I think it puts them in the WCF conversation.

If people thought was unwatchable with a passer like Paul, woooo boy are we in for it with Russ and Harden this year.

The takes will be ghost pepper hot.

Jaybee · #**163** 10-04-2019, 10:25 AM

So this is the Knicks year, right?

Jaybee · #**164** 10-07-2019, 12:12 PM

Catching up from the weekend...

I love this guy. I'm really high on the Rockets this year. I also think the NBA PR cave on the Hong Kong/China thing is shameful yet not unexpected.

Jaybee · #**165** 10-07-2019, 12:16 PM

Miami is a really interesting team this year. They have some pieces to move (Dragic, Olynyk) and a desire to be a contender again. Maybe a CP3 destination?