“Outside” Magazine thinks the “Bike Boom” may be here to stay. I have my doubts.

[MikeD]

Originally Posted by ultraman6970

Have to be honest for the amount of bikes being sold apparently... havent seen that many people riding them. Many are in trainers tho.



I do not think the bike boom is here to stay, same happened back in the 80s

I see some increase, but not a whole lot. Most of these folks aren't true cyclists. After the pandemic is over, there going to be a lot of used bikes for sale! Now isn't the time to buy a bike (if you can even get one).

[mistermo]

By definition, if it's a "boom", it will end.

[prototoast]

I know there's a lot of conjecture, but can we be a little more precise with some of the claims. "Boom" is just too vague.

1. Do you think the growth rate of bicycle sales will be higher in 2022 and beyond compared to where we would have been without the pandemic?

2. Do you think the level of bicycle sales will be higher in 2022 and beyond compared to where we would have been without the pandemic?

3. Do you think the growth rate of bicycle ridership will be higher in 2022 and beyond compared to where we would have been without the pandemic?

4. Do you think the level of bicycle ridership will be higher in 2022 and beyond compared to where we would have been without the pandemic?

[Mark McM]

Originally Posted by mistermo

By definition, if it's a "boom", it will end.

The first "boom" was the Big Bang 13.6 billion years ago, and as far we can tell, the Universe is still expanding. It might eventually contract again, but not in our lifetimes (or our children's, or our children's children's ...).

[jtbadge]

Wow, and you guys think I'm negative?

A lot of downright hateful opinions in here about the way other people are living their life.

[Jaybee]

Originally Posted by jtbadge

Wow, and you guys think I'm negative?

A lot of downright hateful opinions in here about the way other people are living their life.

But if I don't put other people down, how am I supposed to feel superior?

[XXtwindad]

Originally Posted by jtbadge

Wow, and you guys think I'm negative?

A lot of downright hateful opinions in here about the way other people are living their life.

I’m not sure where all the “hateful” opinions are. I think (based on over a decade in the fitness industry) that most of the newcomers to cycling will lose interest. A few will discover the “zen” of the sport and retain (or increase) their passion. I think it’s a realistic assessment.

But I hope I’m wrong.

[batman1425]

Originally Posted by XXtwindad

I think (based on over a decade in the fitness industry) that most of the newcomers to cycling will lose interest. A few will discover the “zen” of the sport and retain (or increase) their passion. I think it’s a realistic assessment.

But I hope I’m wrong.

I think this is probably the case. IMO the increased sales were predominantly in 2 categories:

1. People that are/have been thinking about a bike purchase now or in the next 1-3 years and quarantine bumped that priority level.

2. People bought bikes this year because they didn't have other options for fitness/recreation with the closures and quarantine and the bike is not appreciably different to them than any exercise tool: treadmill, spin bike, tennis racquet, etc.

Group 1 people are more likely to stick with it because it was on their radar before it was a need. Some fraction of group 2 will as well, but a comparatively smaller proportion as group 1 with most likely returning to their usual outlets when available. Though, I did see several instances of people in the group 2 category that bought cheap bikes early in the pandemic, and returned for 1 or even 2 complete upgrades as the season went on, landing on nice carbon stuff because they found out they loved riding. Those people never would have bought a bike in the first place without quarantine driving the motivation.

On the retailer side - I don't know if shops and manufacturers are thinking enough about the impact of group 1 on long term projections. Supply is still very low so bikes are not sitting long, but that won't be the case forever. We likely saw 2 or more years of planned purchases happen in the span of a few months. Bikes that shops and manuf were planning to sell in '22 or '23 now won't be. When supply rebounds and the leftover demand is satisfied, I suspect we will see a significant lull, particularly on the sub $1k units for a while. That's troubling because those bikes are the bread and butter for lots of shops. Getting group 1 and 2 folks back into the shop in the coming years for accessories, service, or upgrades is going to be VERY important to the industry IMO.

[Ozz]

Originally Posted by Mark McM

In earlier times, a large number of people had bikes when they were kids. It was just part of normal lief that when they "grew up", they'd put aside childish things (bikes) and become adults (and drive a car).

These days, fewer children have bikes when they are kids. Also, young people today are less likely to be interested in cars. So just maybe, people really are just now discovering the joy of cycling (because they didn't bike as kids), and have less motivation to "put aside childish things" (because driving has less appeal).

I think this is an interesting perspective...

My kids had bikes, but really stopped riding them once they started playing other sports...my kids had bikes when younger, but pretty much stopped riding them when they started playing other sports. They really had zero interest in driving, but they do have their licenses. They still prefer to be taxied by mom or dad. They just aren't "car guys" like most my friends and I were at their age. Seems to be the case with most their friends too.

Bikes are a pretty efficient and inexpensive means of transportation in urban areas. Young people don't have a lot of excess $$, so it in practical terms, it makes good financial sense to not own a car, get around town on a bike, and then use Uber, Zip or Hertz to get a car when a bike won't do.

[MikeD]

I think cycling has been on the decline in the US since Lance Armstrong retired. You can see it in numbers you see at centuries and the declining membership in cycling clubs. Maybe this is a good thing. Right now though, I'm seeing a lot of clueless cyclists on the roads and trails.

[buddybikes]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...me-of-e-bikes/


https://www.wfmj.com/story/42484566/...strategies-and

[benb]

Regarding kids I have an 8 year old.. I think the pendulum is swinging a little bit back away from the organized sports but who knows, and it varies from family to family.

Some of my sons friends parents have the kids scheduled out the wazoo with practice every day and never a minute to explore/be creative, etc.. but a lot don't. Some of these people even couldn't stop that to be safe in the pandemic.

My wife had the "100% scheduled/organized sports" upbringing and kind of leans that way but I don't.

Bicycling is like running, skateboarding, snowboard, hiking, etc.. IMO it is a more independent activity that lets people do their own thing and be more creative. There's a ton of value in that IMO and I think you do enough of these kinds of sports growing up it will teach you more about about listening to your body and taking your own initiative vs just getting yelled at by a coach and doing what you're told.

2020 really threw a monkey wrench into the organized sports-industrial complex and caused lots of people to re-experience sports like cycling that are safer in a pandemic and let you be more creative, self guided, exploratory, etc.. that is a positive aspect of all this for me.

I think my son is in vastly better shape after this year than if he'd been in his organized sports too. He's still young enough the fitness benefit of all the little organized practices is very small compared to running around the woods or biking.

[benb]

Originally Posted by MikeD

I think cycling has been on the decline in the US since Lance Armstrong retired. You can see it in numbers you see at centuries and the declining membership in cycling clubs. Maybe this is a good thing. Right now though, I'm seeing a lot of clueless cyclists on the roads and trails.

Honestly though centuries and a lot of road events are just super played out and tired and losing popularity, Lance or no.

After a certain # of organized centuries they most certainly lost a lot of appear for me. It's a bunch of hoopla and money and silliness and extra risk.

I have gotten more enjoyment out of my solo centuries by far. Go where I want, plan the route I want, make the route go by stores where I can buy food/beverages I want, no need to rely on their rest stops in the middle of nowhere actually being stocked, no need to deal with rude crowds of other cyclists, etc.. Even if I don't want to go alone, going with 2 or 3 other people you know really well is way more fun than a thousand strangers.

The people who were going to those are probably showing up at gravel events instead. Some of the traditional centuries are not even running anymore here, but there are more gravel events than there used to be, and some of the century type events are just restricted down to 20 people, etc..

[XXtwindad]

Originally Posted by benb

Regarding kids I have an 8 year old.. I think the pendulum is swinging a little bit back away from the organized sports but who knows, and it varies from family to family.

Some of my sons friends parents have the kids scheduled out the wazoo with practice every day and never a minute to explore/be creative, etc.. but a lot don't. Some of these people even couldn't stop that to be safe in the pandemic.

My wife had the "100% scheduled/organized sports" upbringing and kind of leans that way but I don't.

Bicycling is like running, skateboarding, snowboard, hiking, etc.. IMO it is a more independent activity that lets people do their own thing and be more creative. There's a ton of value in that IMO and I think you do enough of these kinds of sports growing up it will teach you more about about listening to your body and taking your own initiative vs just getting yelled at by a coach and doing what you're told.

2020 really threw a monkey wrench into the organized sports-industrial complex and caused lots of people to re-experience sports like cycling that are safer in a pandemic and let you be more creative, self guided, exploratory, etc.. that is a positive aspect of all this for me.

I think my son is in vastly better shape after this year than if he'd been in his organized sports too. He's still young enough the fitness benefit of all the little organized practices is very small compared to running around the woods or biking.

Never heard this particular phrase before. I like it.

[Ewiser]

The whole spin bike market will drop down for sure. Most will go back to gyms. Doing work outs at home while it may be nice time wise. The pull of the couch is very strong. If you want a peloton bike you should be able to get a good deal on one in the future.