OT: 2018-19 NBA Thread.

[Jaybee]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

That would be a first for Milwaukee who haven't lost three games in a row all year.

Playoffs are a different animal, but they're clearly the best of the East. Maybe the lack of playoff experience will finally catch up to them. But Draymond's right, the Warriors will need Durant back for that series.

The underrated thing that KD gives the Dubs is the ability to be big while going "small". Take him off the court, and their best lineup has a bunch of 6'7" guys and just gets smaller from there. Portland couldn't really make them pay (even though we almost had the Meyers Leonard game) because their bigs just can't guard in space.

Milwaukee's best lineups have two 7 footers and a 6'10" guy. Their defensive scheme keeps Lopez from getting caught out on the perimeter, and all 4 of their big minute wings/guards are excellent to elite at getting over screens and funneling shooters into the midrange. There is a reason they are the best defense in the league over 82 games and the playoffs so far. By pretty much any metric you want to use, the Bucks are terrifyingly good, and almost certainly the best team the W's will have played in this current dynasty - 2016 OKC, 2016 Cavs and 2018 Rockets are the only others with a claim to that particular accolade. They lost to one of those teams pre-KD, should have lost to another, and needed every bit of KD's best-player-on-the-planet to get past Houston last year.

I think the current narrative around the W's (they don't need KD! Freedom and Ball movement!) is discounting the fact that, great, inspiring season aside, Portland really isn't a challenge. The real WCF was 2 weeks ago vs. Houston.

[Jaybee]

Originally Posted by 82Picchio

Hey, Dame's 3 that beat the Thunder was a "bad shot," just ask Paul George. Any shot that goes in is a good shot.

Disagree. Let's not confuse good results with good process.

If I can get Dray to finish a possession with a perimeter jumper (0.65points/poss), instead of a Klay spot-up triple (1.2 points/poss) or Steph layup (1.18 points/poss) or Dray lobbing to a dunker (1.95 points/poss), then I'm winning. I'll take my chances that he won't hit them over the course of a game/series/season.

Sometimes low percentage shots go in. That doesn't make them good choices.

[pdmtong]

Originally Posted by Jaybee

I think the current narrative around the W's (they don't need KD! Freedom and Ball movement!) is discounting the fact that, great, inspiring season aside, Portland really isn't a challenge. The real WCF was 2 weeks ago vs. Houston.

EXACTLY...the play w/o KD is getting over valued because it happened against PDX. People are falling in love with the style of the 73 win team again (me too) but 2019 is a different competitive reality and KD is needed for the finals.

[Jaybee]

Originally Posted by pdmtong

EXACTLY...the play w/o KD is getting over valued because it happened against PDX. People are falling in love with the style of the 73 win team again (me too) but 2019 is a different competitive reality and KD is needed for the finals.

Steve Kerr told us everything we need to know about the WCF before game 1. He said something like "We should be able to play more of our bench guys this series" which is some horrible Blazers slander.

Damion Jones started a playoff game, ya'll. Jacob Evans got minutes. JACOB EVANS!

[FlashUNC]

Originally Posted by Jaybee

Disagree. Let's not confuse good results with good process.

If I can get Dray to finish a possession with a perimeter jumper (0.65points/poss), instead of a Klay spot-up triple (1.2 points/poss) or Steph layup (1.18 points/poss) or Dray lobbing to a dunker (1.95 points/poss), then I'm winning. I'll take my chances that he won't hit them over the course of a game/series/season.

Sometimes low percentage shots go in. That doesn't make them good choices.

That's why George's comment was so off-base. For Dame, that is a good shot. He hits a frightening number of 30 ft jumpers, especially in crunch time. The data shows that, yeah, for 99% of the league, that's a bad shot. But for him? Not a bad shot.

[FlashUNC]

Originally Posted by Jaybee

Steve Kerr told us everything we need to know about the WCF before game 1. He said something like "We should be able to play more of our bench guys this series" which is some horrible Blazers slander.

Damion Jones started a playoff game, ya'll. Jacob Evans got minutes. JACOB EVANS!

This is the series where no Nurkic finally came back to bite them.

[82Picchio]

Originally Posted by pdmtong

EXACTLY...the play w/o KD is getting over valued because it happened against PDX. People are falling in love with the style of the 73 win team again (me too) but 2019 is a different competitive reality and KD is needed for the finals.

Whether or not that's true, don't forget that the Warriors beat Houston over 5+ quarters without Durant. With Durant, the series was tied 2-2.

[Jaybee]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

That's why George's comment was so off-base. For Dame, that is a good shot. He hits a frightening number of 30 ft jumpers, especially in crunch time. The data shows that, yeah, for 99% of the league, that's a bad shot. But for him? Not a bad shot.

Right. PG, one of the best 2 or 3 perimeter defenders in the league, is in a no-win spot there. Any bucket wins the game, and Lillard has a fantastic first step so you can't play too tight or he's at the rim and likely to get fouled. Those are even higher EV options than a 37 foot jumper, so I get what PG is saying - I pushed him into the lowest EV option, and he still made it. It just came off in the moment as super salty.

[Climb01742]

A commentator made an interesting distinction. With KD, they have a better roster. Without him maybe they’re a better team. It’s been enough so far. But last night was telling. Down three big contributors last night (Iggy was the third) the core group very nearly got gassed. Nine days will help. Getting Iggy back would be a huge plus. They may need KD to beat the Bucks. We’ll see...or not. But while the Bucks will be the toughest team for Dubs, the Bucks haven’t seen a D like the Dubs can muster. They have lots of length to harass and double Giannis. It’ll be good stuff.

[XXtwindad]

Originally Posted by pdmtong

EXACTLY...the play w/o KD is getting over valued because it happened against PDX. People are falling in love with the style of the 73 win team again (me too) but 2019 is a different competitive reality and KD is needed for the finals.

Well, it really depends on your perspective. As more of a general basketball fan, rather than having an allegiance to one particular team, I'd much rather see a KD-less Finals. And, aesthetically, as mentioned, I think they're more fun to watch without him.

[jtakeda]

Originally Posted by Climb01742

A commentator made an interesting distinction. With KD, they have a better roster. Without him maybe they’re a better team. It’s been enough so far. But last night was telling. Down three big contributors last night (Iggy was the third) the core group very nearly got gassed. Nine days will help. Getting Iggy back would be a huge plus. They may need KD to beat the Bucks. We’ll see...or not. But while the Bucks will be the toughest team for Dubs, the Bucks haven’t seen a D like the Dubs can muster. They have lots of length to harass and double Giannis. It’ll be good stuff.

You also have to keep into account that having KD on your roster means there’s a 100% chance that he’s not playing against you.

[pdmtong]

Originally Posted by XXtwindad

Well, it really depends on your perspective. As more of a general basketball fan, rather than having an allegiance to one particular team, I'd much rather see a KD-less Finals. And, aesthetically, as mentioned, I think they're more fun to watch without him.

I def see that. For me, born in Oakland, life long fan, I never thought I would see what we are seeing now.

[XXtwindad]

Originally Posted by pdmtong

I def see that. For me, born in Oakland, life long fan, I never thought I would see what we are seeing now.

I remember, too:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EBCV0D_QCpI

Hindsight is definitely 20/20. Hysterical to hear some great minds be so wrong. And let's not forget who was drafted two slots behind him ...

[pdmtong]

woo-hoo, got my tix for Game 4...

[FlashUNC]

Originally Posted by Climb01742

A commentator made an interesting distinction. With KD, they have a better roster. Without him maybe they’re a better team. It’s been enough so far. But last night was telling. Down three big contributors last night (Iggy was the third) the core group very nearly got gassed. Nine days will help. Getting Iggy back would be a huge plus. They may need KD to beat the Bucks. We’ll see...or not. But while the Bucks will be the toughest team for Dubs, the Bucks haven’t seen a D like the Dubs can muster. They have lots of length to harass and double Giannis. It’ll be good stuff.

The Warriors are the 9th best team in Defensive Rating in the Playoffs at 110.2 per game, neck and neck with the Trailblazers at 110.6. If this were the regular season, that figure would be about 18th in the league, and below where the Warriors were around 108 per game. Which was good for 11th in the league.

Number 1 and Number 2 in the playoffs? The Bucks at 98.4, and the Raptors at 101.7. A Raptors team that, at various points in the playoffs, once they put the clamps on, teams went long stretches without scoring. The Number 3 team? The Celtics.

There's a stronger case that the Bucks have seen a better defenses during this playoffs, and put them all in the dumpster in embarrassing fashion.

And the Bucks are healthier. Assuming they put the Raptors to bed in 5, this is 100% a defense vs offense series that'll be fascinating to watch.