Trump approves tariffs on Chinese goods including $1 billion in bike products

[hokoman]

Originally Posted by ultraman6970

In other countries like Brazil if you want to take your production to other country the government will ask you why and sure your stuff will be taxed for being produced outside eventhought the company is brazilian. That's how they keep the bussines inside... bad thing? they keep people working, dollars dont end up in another place but used inside. People work, they have money to buy stuff...

I lived in Brazil for 3 years and this is a bad example of how taxed goods improve the economy. Everything is taxed at a ridiculous level, but that is also why there is such a economic disparity in the country - the people that can afford to buy imported goods, can easily afford to fly to the US, buy a Rolex, have a nice vacation with the family and still get home breaking even for that one Submariner price difference (even with how weak the Real is doing). The other hand is, the people in the sector 'making' these 'Made in Brazil' goods are living under the poverty level in the favelas - I think the US equivalent for a month of work is like $400 US dollars. Yes, they have jobs, but they definitely do not have money to buy these taxed goods. If they actually lowered taxes on items - more people would have access to them.

If you think Brazil is a great example, wait until everything goes up in price by xx% in America, boards apply more pressure for bigger earnings, staffing/service gets cuts to increase margins - unemployment grows, and the common folks who live paycheck to paycheck stop consuming. If you give a guy making $500k a year $50k more of disposable income a year, it most likely gets rolled into stocks/vacant summer home/etc. You give 10 people making $50k a year, an extra $5k of disposable income, you better believe they are going to go out and spend it and maintain jobs/growth in the market.

This is a just a really watered down version of how I can see it playing out.

BTW, to keep it on topic... I have 3 bikes down there now, and most the cyclists I know down there bought their bike in the US, and took them down and paid the duties (50% of value). It was still cheaper than buying a bike there.

[Jaybee]

Production isn't coming back here. Companies that have production in other SE Asian or Eastern European states will ramp up there. Those that wouldn't be able to build new plants or meaningfully upscale in 2ish years will just wait it out until things return.

No one is investing in a major job creating manufacturing plant here when the political winds will make it non-competetive in under a decade.

[cachagua]

Here's what I think should be done:

I think eBay should have another 20%-off coupon before the end of the week.

[flydhest]

One point of fact. Over the past year, manufacturing in the US has added more jobs than at any point since the 1990s.

This rise predates the trade war and likely comes in part because of the boom in oil—increases in chemicals and plastics as well as food manufacturing (which these days all have plastics plants attached to them).

Other thoughts:

when tariffs on washing machines came in earlier this year, domestic producers increased prices rather than expanding market share and prices on dryers (no tariffs) went up as well.

In 2016, the previous administration put punitive tariffs on washing machines coming in from China, then 70 percent of US imports. Within a few months we were importing washing machines close to 65 percent of US imports. In related news, Vietnam was importing washing machine parts from China.

[verticaldoug]

Originally Posted by flydhest

One point of fact. Over the past year, manufacturing in the US has added more jobs than at any point since the 1990s.

This rise predates the trade war and likely comes in part because of the boom in oil—increases in chemicals and plastics as well as food manufacturing (which these days all have plastics plants attached to them).

Other thoughts:

when tariffs on washing machines came in earlier this year, domestic producers increased prices rather than expanding market share and prices on dryers (no tariffs) went up as well.

In 2016, the previous administration put punitive tariffs on washing machines coming in from China, then 70 percent of US imports. Within a few months we were importing washing machines close to 65 percent of US imports. In related news, Vietnam was importing washing machine parts from China.

I downloaded some data from the BLS.

The 12mo rolling gain is 346,000 manufacturing jobs which is a great run rate since the previously yearly gains are 207,00 in 2011, 2017 and 208,000 in 2014.

BLS data points to Metal Fabrications, and Transportation. Although there have been some gains in Autos, the bulk is in Aerospace which for Boeing and Defense Industry makes sense. I think this also then feeds into the metal fabrication.

I attached the BLS Manufacturing total employment chart. The hollowing out of manufacturing was going back to the 80's , but really accelerated under Bush 2.

[zap]

Originally Posted by flydhest

In related news, Vietnam was importing washing machine parts from China.

The not quite so new frontier.

More and more cost "effective" products are manufactured in Vietnam.

[oldpotatoe]

I think the 'process' does matter..nobody likes to be bullied. Imagine you are negotiating the $ of a new car and the dealer starts yelling at you..adios..I think most all would like to see better trade relations/agreements in this global economy but 'destroying a village to save it', may not work..IMHO..

[Jaybee]

Originally Posted by verticaldoug

I downloaded some data from the BLS.

The 12mo rolling gain is 346,000 manufacturing jobs which is a great run rate since the previously yearly gains are 207,00 in 2011, 2017 and 208,000 in 2014.

BLS data points to Metal Fabrications, and Transportation. Although there have been some gains in Autos, the bulk is in Aerospace which for Boeing and Defense Industry makes sense. I think this also then feeds into the metal fabrication.

I attached the BLS Manufacturing total employment chart. The hollowing out of manufacturing was going back to the 80's , but really accelerated under Bush 2.

Can someone describe a mechanism for this? What happened in the early 2000's that cratered manufacturing jobs? War on Terror - if so, how?

I feel like I should be able to work this out myself, but maybe I need more coffee.

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by Jaybee

Can someone describe a mechanism for this? What happened in the early 2000's that cratered manufacturing jobs? War on Terror - if so, how?

I feel like I should be able to work this out myself, but maybe I need more coffee.

Google

what caused US manufacturing to decline?

Unfortunately you'll see partisan/political articles..so it's kinda hard to find an objective answer via GOOGLE.

[binxnyrwarrsoul]

Originally Posted by cachagua

Here's what I think should be done:

I think eBay should have another 20%-off coupon before the end of the week.

Potd.

[HenryA]

Originally Posted by Jaybee

Can someone describe a mechanism for this? What happened in the early 2000's that cratered manufacturing jobs? War on Terror - if so, how?

I feel like I should be able to work this out myself, but maybe I need more coffee.

China came fully on line.

In the 1950s there were about 500-600 million people in China. They were essentially a subsistence economy, wages were pretty much zero. Today there are almost 1.5 billion Chinese and there has been steady and enormous wage growth since around the turn of the century.

Why? Trade with the world. China fully joined the party with a huge population which was unemployed outside of subsistence. It was almost inevitable.

It is imperative that we keep some industry alive here within our borders. A national security imperative in terms of military defense capability.

Trade is great but we still need to be somewhat self sufficient and especially in the fundamentals or basics. If we had no auto industry we’d be buying other nations cars and at their prices and on their terms. No aviation industry, we’d be riding on other nation’s planes. Best situation is where we lead and are fully involved in industry. If you can’t make things for your self, you may find yourself at the mercy of others to provide them.

[saab2000]

Originally Posted by HenryA

No aviation industry, we’d be riding on other nation’s planes.

The US has an aviation industry but there is basically a duopoly in aviation. Of course, there are Embraer in Brazil and Bombardier in Canada and some Russian and Ukrainian manufacturers, but basically it's Boeing and Airbus.

The funny thing? Both of these mega-manufacturers have component suppliers all over the world and some Airbuses are assembled in the US and Boeing wings come from Japan. It's all about global trade.

Want our national airline to buy 100 777-300s? Give us a piece of the action. It's the modern way.

China buys a lot of airplanes.

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by saab2000

The US has an aviation industry but there is basically a duopoly in aviation. Of course, there are Embraer in Brazil and Bombardier in Canada and some Russian and Ukrainian manufacturers, but basically it's Boeing and Airbus.

The funny thing? Both of these mega-manufacturers have component suppliers all over the world and some Airbuses are assembled in the US and Boeing wings come from Japan. It's all about global trade.

Want our national airline to buy 100 777-300s? Give us a piece of the action. It's the modern way.

China buys a lot of airplanes.

When we saw a Russian(Soviet) copy of a US aircraft..it was a 'B-2ski'..not sure what you call a Chinese 737/A320...
http://www.aeronewstv.com/en/industr...ey-differ.html

[ColnagoC59]

Originally Posted by HenryA

China came fully on line.

In the 1950s there were about 500-600 million people in China. They were essentially a subsistence economy, wages were pretty much zero. Today there are almost 1.5 billion Chinese and there has been steady and enormous wage growth since around the turn of the century.

Why? Trade with the world. China fully joined the party with a huge population which was unemployed outside of subsistence. It was almost inevitable.

It is imperative that we keep some industry alive here within our borders. A national security imperative in terms of military defense capability.

Trade is great but we still need to be somewhat self sufficient and especially in the fundamentals or basics. If we had no auto industry we’d be buying other nations cars and at their prices and on their terms. No aviation industry, we’d be riding on other nation’s planes. Best situation is where we lead and are fully involved in industry. If you can’t make things for your self, you may find yourself at the mercy of others to provide them.

No, the free market dictates the terms. If the United States stopped building cars tomorrow, consumers could easily decide between South Korea, Japan and Germany. Also foreign auto companies have domestic plants and the U.S. can still set safety and emission standards. Car industry is becoming more and more automated, which means fewer and fewer jobs as well. And over the next few years electric vehicles become an even bigger factor and they require less moving parts and will be much simpler to build. Once the switch is on , traditional car builders like G.M. and Ford may find themselves at an even greater competitive disadvantage

[FlashUNC]

Want more wars? Erect trade barriers.