Thoughts on the bike industry...

[GParkes]

Originally Posted by laupsi

Curious, how many of your peers have gym memberships and/or personal trainers? my opinion, the change is cultural based, not financial. What % of kids today play board games? How do folks, younger generations, get their entertainment media today, listen to music, etc...?

Also, I know plenty who do not have substantial take home pay, but they do find a way to piss away their disposable income through services they really cannot afford. Buying a new bicycle is relatively cheap in comparison. It’s simply not in their view of options. I also imagine there will be loads of Peleton bikes and gift subscrittions given this Xmas, w/about half left to the wayside come April.

Agree completely with Laupsi here. I have a 27 and 29 year old (one self employed and the other working way through med school/field) that have friends that think of nothing spending $100 for brunch at Cheesecake Factory. I believe the younger generation will spend many, many $$ for HIIT classes, Orange Theory, spin classes, and hot yoga because they're looking for the social component. Income inequality is a cop out. Many good used bikes can be had for the cost of six months of these classes, but the bike will last a years and still be worth $100 if they take care of it and want to sell it. I also agree with Spud on the safety component. There have been 5-6 automobile/bike incidents in my area in the last few years resulting in a couple deaths. I have friends that would love to ride outdoors, but are terrified. I'm fortunate that in five minutes I'm pretty much in rural territory with very little traffic. I'm also immune to it after 30+ years.

[bfd]

Originally Posted by zap

edit



Re Canyon...I posted my opinion a while back and it hasn't changed.

My wife was interested in getting a new road bike and Canyons 650B caught her attention. Not the big off road 650b size, but big enough for decent roads 25 width.

Anyhow, the Canyon tt is too short, the supplied stem is too short, only manufacturer supporting 650b.....so my wife went to a local bicycle shop 2 weeks ago. The owner built an extra small for her to try out with no guarantee of a sale. She took the extra small 700c out for a spin, loved it and bought the bike.

I will also note that Canyon Ultimate sizing is too short for me as well and the onezee hbarstem in the longer length is too wide.

A buddy of mine in metro DC had a Canyon that he purchased in Germany. I moved to NC right around the time Canyon started selling direct in the USA and have yet to see one purchased from Canyon USA.

Agree, I dislike Canyon, which are basically Giants, because of their policy of having a "standard" sizing for things like stems and bars. If you fit the stem and bar size they offer, then its good. However, any adjustments and you pay for a new one. Now, you could argue that a new stem and bar isn't that much, but if they fit say a 11cm and you need a 10cm, no swapping, buy it. Just seems petty to me?!

Nevertheless, one of my buddies really wants their Ultimate road bike with Sram etap and hydro disc brakes. So he actually went to their outlet showroom somewhere in SoCal and test rode a bike. He confirmed for himself, that the bike fits. So for like $6500, you basically get what other brands sell for $9k+ or at least that's what he told me. So if it fits, then that's not a bad deal!

My LBS told me he knows a shop in Germany and was told that when Canyon came out over there, it has a big negative effect on shops in Germany as they took the $2k to $4k market by storm. A lot of shops closed. So US dealers were fearful. My LBS focuses on service and also doing things like buying and restoring vintage bikes for Eroica. They seem to be surviving.

But it is tough to be a shop and let's hope those independent ones continue to survive. Good Luck!

[Red Tornado]

Originally Posted by Burning Pines

Purchasing power of the average American has been steady or in decline for decades. Growing wealth inequality fragments the market for products into the low end and luxury goods. In the case of a nonessential (to most people) item like a bicycle, demand for that low end can drop out entirely, creating more and more competition for a vanishingly smaller pool of people willing to drop thousands of dollars on a bike(s). Just one more depressing anecdote of late-stage capitalism.

I see these discussions pop up on cycling message boards not infrequently, and most of the comments from both the consumers and industry members are focused around what types of bicycles to sell, online vs traditional retail, etc. That misses the point entirely. Yes, increasing cost of entry to cycling is a problem, but it is an accelerant to a process that would probably be happening even if the industry- and enthusiasts- focused on affordable entry level products and had a welcoming attitude.

I'm about 30 in what's generally considered one of the most cycling friendly cities in the country. Maybe 5% of my friends and peers ride bikes recreationally in a way that would be recognizable to people on this forum (mostly touring and off road, nobody cares about road riding) and even they are chasing the bottom end of what people might consider enthusiast level gear. This should be prime time for people to start getting into the sport. In previous generations people would be settling into their careers, maybe they've bought a starter house... Not in 2018. Consider one guy I know who just bought a base model 27.5+ Salsa Timberjack - that thing is 1200 dollars! That's a ton of money for any normal person, and is considered barely acceptable by modern standards. That's probably half his monthly take home income. And it's not just bikes. Houses here start at maybe 250k. Everyone I know is paying $300+ a month in student loans. How much do you have to care about riding to justify it financially? How much do you need to make for it to even be an option?

IMO the industry and sport are ****ed until we fix the bigger inequities in our economy.

Sort of along that same line, the group I ride with contains a good number of DINK's. They think nothing of ponying up $3-$5K, and in many cases substantially more, every year or other year for a fresh ride. Some do it with multiple bikes.
I work FT as a tool design engineer, wife PT for a non-profit. Mortgage payment, 3 kids in college, 5 cars (mine, wife & each kid has one) to maintain/insure, etc. No way am I walking into the LBS and coughing up that kind of dough every year or two. Literally can't afford it now, and once kids are off our books, still won't because we'll be catching up on retirement savings/investment.
With what I read regarding the supposed increase in cost of living, near stagnant wages (I am in this group) and again a supposed shrinking middle class, how am I supposed to come up with the scratch to buy this high dollar equipment. Some have been blessed much more financially than I, and that's fine. However, based on what I've read, there's slowly more people moving to the financial situation that I'm in. Yes I have a decent house, decent (all used) cars, we live a fairly comfortable life but can't justify big (to me) purchases like that cyclically. How do I get around it? The newest frame I own is 2010 (mtb), road frame is a 2003, you get the idea. Still ride 10s Campy & 9s dirt drivetrains. My newest fork is a lower end Rockshox bought in early 2000's. Saddles are all in excess of 6 years old. Newest wheel set is 2013 Fulcrum Racing Zero 2-way. Traded a complete bike for it. Running older stuff, trading, bartering is how I keep going. However that isn't going to help the industry when all I buy at LBS or online are small-ticket items. Would love to have newer stuff and invest in the industry but just don't have the $$$. Wonder how many others are in this same boat?
Apologize for the stream of conciousness rambling....

[Burning Pines]

Originally Posted by GParkes

Agree completely with Laupsi here. I have a 27 and 29 year old (one self employed and the other working way through med school/field) that have friends that think of nothing spending $100 for brunch at Cheesecake Factory. I believe the younger generation will spend many, many $$ for HIIT classes, Orange Theory, spin classes, and hot yoga because they're looking for the social component. Income inequality is a cop out. Many good used bikes can be had for the cost of six months of these classes, but the bike will last a years and still be worth $100 if they take care of it and want to sell it.

Very few of my friends have gym memberships. A not small number do yoga. We do it at the community center for 5 bucks a class. Almost everyone I know likes hiking so it's not an aversion to outdoor activities.

I know older folks love to blame every problem on some moral failing of my generation, but the numbers don't lie dude: https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrick.../#2683109c7284

Add to that precarious employment situations and tight living spaces since everyone needs roommates, and classes might be the way to go for some people. You can cancel a gym membership any time if you lose your job, and it doesn't take up any space in a tiny studio apartment or shared living quarters. Peloton has a huge marketing budget, nobody actually owns them, they take up a ton of space, and are crazy expensive.

Used bikes... sure, but if you don't know anything chances are you'll end up with something that doesn't fit your body or use case, or has mechanical issues that will need a trip to the bike shop to resolve. One thing I would like to see is more legit shops selling both used and new. Sellwood Cycle near me does this and I think they do a good job of catering to all types of riders. But used inventory takes up a lot of space, and retail space has increase in price just as much as houses. You can't order a used model from QBP.

I also agree with Spud on the safety component. There have been 5-6 automobile/bike incidents in my area in the last few years resulting in a couple deaths. I have friends that would love to ride outdoors, but are terrified. I'm fortunate that in five minutes I'm pretty much in rural territory with very little traffic. I'm also immune to it after 30+ years.

No argument from me on this one. I think perceived safety is a big barrier to commuting/transportation-based cycling.

[HenryA]

I’ll second a model that includes used bikes. I kinda wonder if buying up a batch of cheap bikes off CL, giving them a proper tune over the winter and selling them during the season might be profitable.

[glepore]

Originally Posted by HenryA

I’ll second a model that includes used bikes. I kinda wonder if buying up a batch of cheap bikes off CL, giving them a proper tune over the winter and selling them during the season might be profitable.

No. Tried this for a while. The margins are too slim. Pricing is too available using a closed sale search on ebay. Really hard. The only bike I ever made a profit on that was "worth it" was a frankenstein Paramount with "Raleigh" repaint that the seller couldn't convince remote buyers was actually a Paramount. Paid 300 w/ minty NR. It was a unicorn. Fun hobby tho.

[Burnette]

I think all the ideas as to why the industry struggles presented in this thread are true, it's reasonable to believe that many factors are at play.

For newbs and seasoned alike, the safety factor is huge. I can't tell you how many times I've had "the talk" with family and friends as to why I take the risks riding on the road. It gets tough when you have a child, lose a friend who died riding, watch/read stories of riders dying, personal close calls, being passed by drivers whose heads are down looking at a phone.

I'm a road cyclist till about 2 PM, I'm not anytime after that, period. It's just as dangerous, just not as many cars. Riding on the road is something we all worked out in our heads personally, we're wired different, but I totally get it that people think it's crazy and will never, ever do it.

Price. People do indeed splurge just as much or more elsewhere but that's a point right there. They made a choice for that meal or a set of golf clubs and won't do the same for a bike because it isn't something they are into. The fact that cycling doesn't have to be but can be pricey is indeed a factor.

Kids and culture. If my daughter is outside it's never alone, one of us or both are with her. Rightly or wrongly we worry and fear for her safety. This year In NC, in Winston Salem a man tried to get a young girl to get into his car, in Lumberton a man abducted a girl and a life was lost, in Walkertown a girl died crossing the street on her way to school, got hit by a truck. In my youth I rode my bicycle all over Detroit City, alone on the sidewalk and in the streets. Did a full loop of Belle Isle at eight years old on a banana seat bike. Our culture has changed and it does have an impact as kids are growing up in a way different than we did.

Different markets yield different results. So it may be true that high dollar shops are doing well where you are or that the average price of a bike sold in my area is $500. Wage disparity, stagnant wages, job opportunities, community cycling advocacy, many factors will make all of our "outside my door" realities different. So when someone says "this" is what's killing it, it may be true for their area, and be something else in yours.

IMO, like water cycling will always be around, at what level and what kind of niche it will be is the question. With a generation or two that doesn't get exposed to it as much, with a good portion of our population being overweight, the fear of the road always present, if I had to spit ball I would say ecycling/swift and electric bikes will take a good portion of consumers going forward.

[Mikej]

I think we are overlooking a huge point “The Lance Factor “ cycling was brought into the limelight by LA. It sold bikes - cycling now needs a new hero, yes, LA was a hero, but it sold bikes. Think of this, you couldn’t sell Air Jordan’s without Mike-