Is the e-bike boom sustainable?

[cyan]

We all know e-bikes have been growing fast in the past couple of years in the US and Europe, esp. with the pandemic and people wanting to get out and exercise and/or to avoid public transport.

Had a discussion with a friend yesterday, and he believes the boom will last even after the pandemic ends. He thinks not only more people will join in cycling for commuting or exercise thanks to e-bikes, but also more than half of the existing commuting/recreational/fitness cyclists will convert to e-bikes (or at least have one as an option). He compares the development of e-bikes to the evolution from feature phones to smartphones, though not as ubiquitous.

I can see growing adoption of e-bikes for commuting or last-mile delivery, but expect that growth to come down significantly once the pandemic truly ends. I just don't think the road/policy infrastructure truly supports wider adoption in the US (some European countries are better, but still, the capacity/ceiling is generally not very high). For recreational/fitness cycling, I still expect the vast majority of younger demographic on manual bikes (MTB and road), but that's probably just a fraction of the overall cycling/bikes market.

So how well does my (likely biased) intuition/hypothesis align with the reality? As a cyclist, I hope to be proven wrong and see more people cycling on the road. Feel free to suggest any resource/data I should look up to get a fuller picture.

[Blue Jays]

Use of e-bikes enables families to ride together over longer distances, even with significant strength and skill differences.
I believe e-bikes are certainly here to stay. I can envision one in my future someday when the hills just get too difficult.

[pasadena]

E-bikes were the fastest growing sector before the pandemic and the pandemic made all bikes popular, not just e-bikes.

Not only are they going to sustain and grow market share, it's the only realistic way to have growth on the scale we need to create real cycling infrastructure in the US.

[buddybikes]

I have seen significant increase in bomber tire, high power e-bikes, basically low powered motor cycles/moped. Not much exercise going on and tires alone make significant noise.

I timed getting my e-Ronin Alchemy well, as I have grade 2 sprain/tear of my hamstring at my pelvis, so movement continues without undo stress.

[Peter P.]

E-bikes are NOT bikes, and I don't feel people are using them for exercise.

They are mopeds powered by batteries.

Yes, they will become a fixture on the market, because people are essentially lazy yet still want to go fast, far, and not have to obey traffic laws.

Now get off my lawn!

[NHAero]

The other day on a ride I encountered both ends of the bell curve for e-assist use cases.

The first was a group of 20-somethings who popped out of the woods on four e-MTBs. I hate seeing them, they tear up the trails more than the pedal powered MTBs and they ride way too fast. I'm worried they'll get bikes banned from many of the trails we ride regularly.

The second was a 74 year old woman I know slightly, on an e-assist ICE recumbent trike. Last time I saw her she was walking with difficulty with a cane, she has some spinal issues. She got the e-trike in March and has ridden 1,100 miles since. The tech has been an incredible blessing for her. The system is Shimano and is only 250W, BTW.

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by Peter P.

E-bikes are NOT bikes, and I don't feel people are using them for exercise.

They are mopeds powered by batteries.

Yes, they will become a fixture on the market, because people are essentially lazy yet still want to go fast, far, and not have to obey traffic laws.

Now get off my lawn!

Seems to be 2 'types'.
-Powered mopeds with pedals, a throttle, no need to pedal the thing. Hazardous on bike lanes, in MUPS..as their 75 pound thing goes whizzing by(and running stop signs).
-Electric assist 'bikes' that just help with the pedaling.

Have no problem with number 2. Around here, number 1 are a nuisance, dangerous..IMHO..

When talking about 'E Bikes', I think the distinction needs to be made.

[AngryScientist]

I believe the trend will continue and expand further.

As with everything else, you have to follow the dollar signs. right now, as far as i know, the price of entry for e-bikes is really quite high and we're not yet seeing wide adoption of ebike because of cost.

looking at batteries, the state of tech is moving at a fast pace driven by auto manufacturers and power sectors. i'm in the power business and we have seen the price of battery energy storage installations fall dramatically over the years.

as batteries become more power dense and the price per watt-hour comes down, all battery powered tech will benefit and become more available.

once big box stores like walmart, dicks, target, etc have a $500 ebike on the shelf, their popularity will go up even more.

[eddief]

my bet there is no end in sight.

[Johnnysmooth]

See nothing but growth for e-bikes.
Three reasons:
1. Good for families with young kids and varying riding abilities.
2. Commuting to work. I’ve been commuting by bike for decades and have seen steady increase in bike commuters. Many I talk to who say they would like to do similar also say they don’t want to arrive at work all sweaty. E-bike takes care of that.
3. Demographics - baby boomer population is huge and let’s face it, we aren’t spring chickens anymore. Even though I prefer my human powered bikes, I do see an e-bike in my future.

My hope is that with this increasing rise, politicians will take note and use some of those infrastructure funds coming our way to improve mobility access for all forms of transportation and not just those that guzzle gas.

[batman1425]

Huge boom in Atlanta for them combined with directed efforts and big $ being put in to pedestrian and MUP infrastructures. The Beltline is WILDLY popular and the areas around it explode as they open.

Traffic is miserable and always will be. Most people in the perimeter can get to work faster on a bike than by car. Many companies are providing incentives to employees for biking to work or assisting with purchase costs.

I'm all for it. More people on 2 wheels and out of cars is nothing but good here. E-assist completely changed my wife's interest in bikes as transportation. She loves hers. However, I do see the problems oldpotato points out here as well. The overwhelming majority of e-assist bike riders I see are great. This is not the case for users of electric scooters with throttles that happen to have pedals. Officially, those are not allowed on MUP and bike lanes but in practice that is impossible to enforce.

[redir]

Originally Posted by Peter P.

E-bikes are NOT bikes, and I don't feel people are using them for exercise.

They are mopeds powered by batteries.

Yes, they will become a fixture on the market, because people are essentially lazy yet still want to go fast, far, and not have to obey traffic laws.

Now get off my lawn!

They literally are the definition of motor cycle.

Make 'exercise' easy for people and they will flock to it.

[batman1425]

Originally Posted by Peter P.

E-bikes are NOT bikes, and I don't feel people are using them for exercise.

They are mopeds powered by batteries.

Yes, they will become a fixture on the market, because people are essentially lazy yet still want to go fast, far, and not have to obey traffic laws.

Now get off my lawn!

There's pretty good data to show that both perceived and actual exertion is similar on e vs. traditional bikes. An e bike doesn't prevent you from working hard, it makes you go faster for the given input of power. If you limit your ride based on achieving a particular speed, then yes, it does reduce your energy input to achieve that particular speed. But you can go out and flog yourself on an e-bike just the same. You'll just be going a lot faster in the process, cover more ground, maybe do a few extra laps in your favorite trail network or keep up with the fast group ride a bit longer.

To be fair - they are not mopeds because they don't have a throttle.

[rustychisel]

Why ever would the trend NOT be sustainable? Answer that question.

[spoonrobot]

Most of the purchasers are the exact same people who bought a bike in 1978, rode it for six months before hanging it in the garage for 40 years.

Past performance, etc.