Airbus stops making the A380. So will CFK bikes get cheaper?

[martl]

When Airbus started making the A380, the availability of CFK materials, especially for manufacturers only needing low volumes, was literally dried out. So, with Airbus announcing today that the A380 line is discontinued and the last one will be delivered in 2021 - can we expect a price drop in CFK items?

[charliedid]

Originally Posted by martl

When Airbus started making the A380, the availability of CFK materials, especially for manufacturers only needing low volumes, was literally dried out. So, with Airbus announcing today that the A380 line is discontinued and the last one will be delivered in 2021 - can we expect a price drop in CFK items?

What is a CFK?

Chris ******* King?

[martl]

german for carbon fiber... sorry

[buddybikes]

Carbon fiber deman will continue and grow, 777X Boeing seems to be what airlines are moving to, which massive carbon wings..

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by martl

When Airbus started making the A380, the availability of CFK materials, especially for manufacturers only needing low volumes, was literally dried out. So, with Airbus announcing today that the A380 line is discontinued and the last one will be delivered in 2021 - can we expect a price drop in CFK items?

Well, 300 some A380s but 1100+ Boeing 787..plus future aircraft will undoubtedly be using lotsa composites. So...no.

[C40_guy]

Interesting question.

My guess is that the entire bike industry uses a plane's worth or two of CF each year.

Also, the raw goods cost of a finished frame is relatively low. Industrial carbon fiber costs somewhat less than $15/pound, so even a 50% reduction in cost might potentially represent a raw goods savings of $5 per frame.

Last fall we had a similar conversation about the impact of tariffs on steel frames.

[KJMUNC]

Originally Posted by C40_guy

My guess is that the entire bike industry uses a plane's worth or two of CF each year.

Exactly my thoughts.

Each 787 contains roughly 33 TONS of carbon impregnated plastic (not just carbon fiber, but composites at large). That's alotta 1k gram frames.

[cribbit]

The materials world has shown that (barring natural limitations) we're very good at producing more of a material when demand goes up.

I think that more plane production would actually be better for supply long term since it would get more people into the cfk supply business.

Titanium bikes came out of the scraps from military titanium usage. Bikes don't take much material and often little enough to be scraps from something like a plane.

[Mark McM]

Originally Posted by KJMUNC

Exactly my thoughts.

Each 787 contains roughly 33 TONS of carbon impregnated plastic (not just carbon fiber, but composites at large). That's alotta 1k gram frames.

Hmmm.... 33 tons is roughly 30,000 kg. The average carbon fiber frame is probably more like 1.2 - 1.5 kg. So, that's about 20,000 - 25,000 carbon frames worth of carbon fiber. There are more carbon fiber bikes than that sold annually under the Trek brand name alone.

I'd accept that the entire aircraft industry uses a lot more carbon fiber than the bicycle industry, but the bicycle industry uses more than one plane's worth of the stuff.

[Mark McM]

Originally Posted by cribbit

The materials world has shown that (barring natural limitations) we're very good at producing more of a material when demand goes up.

I think that more plane production would actually be better for supply long term since it would get more people into the cfk supply business.

Titanium bikes came out of the scraps from military titanium usage. Bikes don't take much material and often little enough to be scraps from something like a plane.

I completely agree with this. But on the other side of the coin, since the bicycle industry is at the long end of the tail, if changes in production or demand of carbon fiber cause temporary shortages, the bicycle industry will suffer disproportionally to other industries.

[Ozz]

Originally Posted by Mark McM

...I'd accept that the entire aircraft industry uses a lot more carbon fiber than the bicycle industry, but the bicycle industry uses more than one plane's worth of the stuff.

True, but I believe the statement was hyperbole to make a point.

Cheers!

[C40_guy]

If $15 worth of raw carbon fiber goes into a high end bicycle, even a significant shift in raw material cost will have negligible impact on the consumer.

And smart, larger manufacturers probably have protected their variable raw goods cost for the next several years, via multi year supplier contracts and market hedging.

I'm not going to lose any sleep over a potential increased inability for me to afford a new Colnago C64 or C68 or whatever.

[martl]

I made this thread tongue-in-cheek, as i'm sure the industry had ample time to increase capacity, and there are many other appliances now that are made from composites today -think E car production like the BMWs - the majority owner of BMW, Mrs Susanne Klatten, is heavily investing in SGL Carbon, one of the big players i understand-, but the demise of the A380 doesn't mean no more planes are built.

Still, composite shortage was a thing in 2005.


http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/tech....005/news/05-12

"[..]However, there's a global shortage of carbon fibre, with composites factories all over the world having to cope with rationing of the fibres that go into making carbon fibre. This is due to the expansion of the Chinese economy, the building of the Airbus A380 and Boeing's 7E7 Dreamliner, top-secret US air force projects, and the proliferation of windfarms across Europe. Every windfarm blade of 50m or more is made of carbon fibre. [..]

[..]According to Toray Industries of Japan, the demand for PAN-based carbon fibre for 2004 was estimated to be about 22,000 tons and the demand is forecast to grow at an annual rate of more than 10 percent in the future and is expected to exceed 30 000 tons in 2007.[..]

According to Dr Weng this 'future stable supply' did not materialise and that from April this year, shortages started to bite. He believes the rationing will last through to June and perhaps beyond.
Price rises inevitably follow any materials shortages and Dr Weng believes carbon fibre bicycle frames (and tennis rackets, golf shafts, fishing rods and other carbon fibre products) will start to cost more later this year as suppliers pass on some of the extra costs to consumers.
Dr Weng said the price hike will last for up to two years, limiting the mass market potential for carbon fibre products in the bicycle industry.
The first consequences of the forthcoming price hike can already be seen, claimed Dr Weng. He said his R&D team have come across Asian bicycle components made from cheaper glass fibre, 'wrapped' in carbon fibre. Last year's trend was for carbon fibre sheathing over aluminium cores, a shady practice but one that's easily proved to be taking place (so long as you can bear cutting into your 'carbon' handlebars, that is). However, glass fibre cores can be dyed to look indistinguishable from the carbon fibre outers and it needs specialist testing to spot the duds.
Dr Weng said consumers should be made aware that carbon fibre bikes will not be coming down in price any time soon and that cheap-as-chips carbon parts and frames may not be all they seem."

[charliedid]

Originally Posted by martl

german for carbon fiber... sorry

[buddybikes]

Few points:
1. The carbon used in 2008 top end Trek, raw was US defense controlled. This was one reason they were making them here.
2. Car and plane engineering could advance the bike industry with new materials and techniques.
3. Of course there is 3D printing and what that in long term will provide