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  #1561  
Old 02-26-2020, 07:45 AM
verticaldoug verticaldoug is offline
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Originally Posted by hokoman View Post

This is a terrible percentage. 98% survival rate for something that seems to spread this easily is crazy. Not that it matters, but just glad that the cases in kids is low and my wife and I are pretty healthy... Not that it matters. Hoping this dies down.

Back on topic, the market has been propped up for years.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/

The table has mortality by age group with data from CCDC (Chinese Center of Disease Control)
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  #1562  
Old 02-26-2020, 04:17 PM
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seanile seanile is offline
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my very smart cousin is working on a PhD in virology and had this to say,

"Average of between 2-3% is actually quite high for a virus that spreads this well and has no vaccine/therapeutics. If our entire country were to get infected, 7 million people would die if these numbers held true. However, we are in a very good position now, which is why I’m not concerned at all. This virus is not going to wipe out the world or even close to that. A gain of function mutation, however, would be bad. And this is always possible with multiple passages of virus progeny through populations."
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  #1563  
Old 02-26-2020, 04:35 PM
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Originally Posted by seanile View Post
my very smart cousin is working on a PhD in virology and had this to say,

"Average of between 2-3% is actually quite high for a virus that spreads this well and has no vaccine/therapeutics. If our entire country were to get infected, 7 million people would die if these numbers held true. However, we are in a very good position now, which is why I’m not concerned at all. This virus is not going to wipe out the world or even close to that. A gain of function mutation, however, would be bad. And this is always possible with multiple passages of virus progeny through populations."
Yeah I was listening to NPR on my working commute today and one of the experts said that most believe that the virus was just what the market needed as an excuse to reel it in to a more realistic level. I guess they all saw this latest fall in points as inevitable with or without the virus.
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  #1564  
Old 02-26-2020, 08:20 PM
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  #1565  
Old 02-26-2020, 08:22 PM
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Originally Posted by seanile View Post
my very smart cousin is working on a PhD in virology and had this to say,

"Average of between 2-3% is actually quite high for a virus that spreads this well and has no vaccine/therapeutics. If our entire country were to get infected, 7 million people would die if these numbers held true. However, we are in a very good position now, which is why I’m not concerned at all. This virus is not going to wipe out the world or even close to that. A gain of function mutation, however, would be bad. And this is always possible with multiple passages of virus progeny through populations."
I did my Ph.D. dissertation on a virus. You could ask me those questions.
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  #1566  
Old 02-27-2020, 03:42 AM
ChainNoise ChainNoise is offline
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I just started to educate myself about investing a couple weeks ago. Aside from a 50% profit in SPCE, I'm glad I didn't really enter the market! I'm anxious to buy but need to be patient in a time like this I suppose.
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  #1567  
Old 02-27-2020, 03:53 AM
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Originally Posted by ChainNoise View Post
I just started to educate myself about investing a couple weeks ago. Aside from a 50% profit in SPCE, I'm glad I didn't really enter the market! I'm anxious to buy but need to be patient in a time like this I suppose.
https://nyti.ms/388H8pO

In my case, I'm not smart enough (or maybe too smart) to invest in individual stocks.

Buy and hold via dollar-cost averaging the S&P 500 Index Fund is good enough for me.
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  #1568  
Old 02-27-2020, 06:58 AM
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I didn’t realize that the US testing is limited to those who traveled to China or knew they had contact with someone who had the virus. This explains the low number of cases here.

http://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/he...alifornia.html

A California coronavirus patient had to wait days to be tested because of restrictive federal criteria, despite doctors’ suggestions.

The C.D.C. has restricted testing to patients who either traveled to China recently or who know they had contact with someone infected with the coronavirus.


And I keep hearing that we’re close to a vaccine (3 months), when even if we are, it won’t be through testing for a year.

Last edited by Tony T; 02-27-2020 at 07:04 AM.
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  #1569  
Old 02-27-2020, 07:01 AM
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Originally Posted by seanile View Post
my very smart cousin is working on a PhD in virology and had this to say,

"Average of between 2-3% is actually quite high for a virus that spreads this well and has no vaccine/therapeutics. If our entire country were to get infected, 7 million people would die if these numbers held true. However, we are in a very good position now, which is why I’m not concerned at all. This virus is not going to wipe out the world or even close to that. A gain of function mutation, however, would be bad. And this is always possible with multiple passages of virus progeny through populations."
actually, the secondary damage the shutdowns will cause to contain the virus and slowdown in overall economic activity will be interesting.

The world is geared for just in time delivery. If you start shutting down parts of the global economy, eventually you will get ripples. Large ripples.

I think we will find out just how fragile the modern global economy is.
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  #1570  
Old 02-27-2020, 08:25 AM
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And I keep hearing that we’re close to a vaccine (3 months), when even if we are, it won’t be through testing for a year.
Dr. Fauci said Phase 1 testing is expected to start in six weeks, and wide availability is 12 to 18 months away in a best case scenario.
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  #1571  
Old 02-27-2020, 08:32 AM
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Dr. Fauci said Phase 1 testing is expected to start in six weeks, and wide availability is 12 to 18 months away in a best case scenario.
Yup, if large scale restrictions go into effect in the US, expect BIG problems in places like the economy..If the Fed does nothing but appoint somebody(as they are doing), and the inevitable happens..the result will be the same. AT least the DOD got their $, and SS, medicare/medicaid, many others, get cut..brilliant..
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Last edited by oldpotatoe; 02-27-2020 at 08:34 AM.
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  #1572  
Old 02-27-2020, 08:39 AM
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The Dow is everything to the current administration. Everything.
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  #1573  
Old 02-27-2020, 08:55 AM
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Originally Posted by verticaldoug View Post
actually, the secondary damage the shutdowns will cause to contain the virus and slowdown in overall economic activity will be interesting.

The world is geared for just in time delivery. If you start shutting down parts of the global economy, eventually you will get ripples. Large ripples.

I think we will find out just how fragile the modern global economy is.
As usual, your comment is spot on. Concentrated and co-located supply chains in Asia are going to destroy many firms' P&L this year.
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  #1574  
Old 02-27-2020, 09:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Elefantino View Post
The Dow is everything to the current administration. Everything.
Quote:
Stocks on Wall Street fell sharply in early trading on Thursday, in the sixth straight day of losses for the S&P 500 as investors continued to react with fear to the spreading coronavirus outbreaks.

The selling could push major benchmarks in the United States into a correction, a term used to indicate that the index is down more than 10 percent from its most recent high. Before trading began Thursday, the S&P 500 was down almost 8 percent from a record reached last week. The Dow Jones industrial average was down about 9.6 percent from its peak earlier in February.
Yup, can't wait to see the twitter storm..'govern by 280 words at a time'.

The FED will do nothing, they are afraid to..be heavy handed and the precious stock market tanks even more. Appt a Coronavirus 'czar' w/o any acton means nothing. The goats are loose.
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  #1575  
Old 02-27-2020, 09:33 AM
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Originally Posted by oldpotatoe View Post
Yup, can't wait to see the twitter storm..'govern by 280 words at a time'.

The FED will do nothing, they are afraid to..be heavy handed and the precious stock market tanks even more. Appt a Coronavirus 'czar' w/o any acton means nothing. The goats are loose.
The Fed will most likely indicate a rate cut soon, probably today
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