OT - Dow plunges 1,175 - worst point decline in history

[Latestart]

Unlike other drugs we give vaccines to HEALTHY people. Herd immunity starts around 60-70% of the population having been vaccinated or exposed. That implies about 200 million doses given- in the US alone. 1% rate of 'problems' is 2 million sick people. that is 20x the death rate to date. Worldwide, billions of doses will be given.

Everyone *wants* a vaccine, but we need to follow the well-known path for safety and that will take time. The stakes are high.

In addition, we don't know if this is:
1) A *forever* vaccine
2) An *annual* vaccine
3) a *partial vaccine* that protects against part of the illness, or just reduces symptom.

We are attempting a true 'moonshot' and a lot can go wrong. 18 months to an approved and manufactured vaccine would be amazing, but it is low-likelihood. 3-4 years is more probable.


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...d-vaccine.html

[Clean39T]

...

[Latestart]

We have been on a 10-15 year path of substituting technology for labor. The destruction of retailing that is being accelerated by CV may be somewhat permanent.

There is *very* sophisticated robotic tech coming for doing things people are paid to do now. This disruption was coming before CV, but by killing off traditional distribution, it's being accelerated.

We should really think about how to make the new normal 'less bad'. The 'old normal' is most likely gone...

John

[akelman]

Great, now I'm counting on a vaccine and Sarah Connor saving us.

[Clean39T]

...

[BobbyJones]

Who's "holding steady" from their positions a month ago?

Would like to hear current thoughts.

[mtechnica]

Look @ the DOW! This is why I don't mess with investing!!

[C40_guy]

Sitting tight with a handful of investments and mostly cash. Tough to watch the market continue to go up (which is why I held onto portions of a couple of long term positions (AAPL, GOOG, etc.)...but still believe that a significant buying opportunity is around the corner...

[C40_guy]

Originally Posted by mtechnica

Look @ the DOW! This is why I don't mess with investing!!

Yes. Most people do very well with a simple portfolio of three funds (or ETFs) and no strategy/hope/guessing for market timing.

Total Stock
Total Bond
International Stock

A simple monthly scheduled investment and maybe an annual rebalance works very well. if the market is down, you get more for your money. If the market is up, well, then it's up.

[akelman]

As I said whenever I lasted commented in this thread, I dumped a bunch (a bunch by my standards, so not really a lot at all) of money into the market when it was around 19,000-20,000 while at the same time not touching any of the money that was already in there. That said, when I did that, I figured the Dow was going to plumb new depths before rallying in this way. I still wouldn't be at all surprised if that happened as we get closer to the election. All of which is to say, my investment strategy remains the same as ever: don't try to time the market.

[kppolich]

Originally Posted by BobbyJones

Who's "holding steady" from their positions a month ago?

Would like to hear current thoughts.

Holding steady from a block of purchases I made in mid march of some beatdown stocks (BA, XOM, and CCL). My thoughts for those purchases currently up 30% is to ride it out as things reopen and people forget about covid (man, that was quick wasn't it?). These purchases weren't meant to make money I need to live on, so I'm OK with the risk of leaving the gains out in the wind.

Other accounts:
401(k) - Increase contributions in March to limit out in 6 months instead of 12. That brings my taxable income down and gets money in the market during the slump faster, but not all at once.

ROTH IRA - Holdings remain allocated the same, I can't touch the money for another 25 years so let it ride.

IRA -Holdings remain allocated the same, I can't touch the money for another 25 years so let it ride.

HSA Investments - Holdings remain the same, no change in contribution, no selling holdings based on the current value or market trends,


Overall, based on personal need I am staying in the market for the future 100%. No need to sell any holdings to fund everyday life and it is not a means of income I rely on, but a vehicle for future needs.

However, if I were nearing retirement I would revisit my needs with a financial advisor and talk about volatility/asset allocation and how it could affect me in the future next time Covid or the like comes around and values drop 20-30%.

[C40_guy]

@kppolich Do you have the option of a Roth 401K? While you don't get the upfront benefit of lowering your taxable income, you do have more flexibility later... (I gather, in your case, much later!)

[Ozz]

Originally Posted by C40_guy

@kppolich Do you have the option of a Roth 401K? While you don't get the upfront benefit of lowering your taxable income, you do have more flexibility later... (I gather, in your case, much later!)

Curious to hear what "kppolich" says, but I had an option for a roth 401(k) at previous employer, however the contributions counted against my annual 401(k) limit....I was more interested keeping pretax contributions as high as possible (reducing taxable income) so didn't keep it in place for long.....

[kppolich]

Originally Posted by Ozz

Curious to hear what "kppolich" says, but I had an option for a roth 401(k) at previous employer, however the contributions counted against my annual 401(k) limit....I was more interested keeping pretax contributions as high as possible (reducing taxable income) so didn't keep it in place for long.....

Same, I have the option to contribute to the Traditional 401(k) or make ROTH 401(k) contributions. For now, I'm sticking with the traditional 401(k) to drop my taxable income as much as possible and contribute the max to a ROTH IRA on the side.

As I approach the income land of no longer qualifying for ROTH IRA contributions. I may move to the ROTH 401(k) to get that tax taken care of now instead of later and continue to build a tax free post contribution investment via that vehicle while my ROTH IRA sits idle. Then, roll the ROTH 401(k) into my ROTH IRA after i leave the job or retire. I still need to talk with an advisor about this and play out some scenarios.

[buddybikes]

just a bling - cards will be tumbling down once some new Covid data comes in as well as earnings reports