OT - Dow plunges 1,175 - worst point decline in history

[joosttx]

Originally Posted by Tony T

Why is this annoying? When the market drops, as it did last December, Powell was there to reverse the expected rate increase, and the market recovered and hit new highs. A couple of months ago, when the market stumbled due to the Trade War, Powell said the that the central bank is prepared to act to sustain the economic expansion should fallout from President Trump’s trade actions on China and Mexico threaten the United States economy, and the Dow rallied almost 1,000 points in 4 days. Now there is talk of a possible global recession, so Powell signals a rate cut — and the S&P hits a record of 3,000.

The Fed has shown us that they are there to support the market.

If you disagree, please explain.

I agree for the most part. We should of been in a recession about a year or so ago but the fed keeps tilting us up for better or worse.

[veloduffer]

To look for signals about the economy, follow the credit markets. The signals include the inverted yield curve, weaker credit terms (covenant-lite, EBITDA add-backs) and increase in the high yield bond rating downgrade to upgrade ratio (for 2019, it has been 3-5x in sectors like consumer products, telecom and tech). Lots of late cycle signals.

As 2/3 of the economic activity is consumption, one needs to look at the consumer. 39% of the respondents in the annual Fed Household survey (of 11,000 adults) said they could not pay an unexpected $400 bill - they would need to borrow, sell something or simply couldn't cover it.

Also, a growing number of seniors will rely on social security as their sole source of income. Here's a good graphic on how much does social security cover living expenses by state

[likebikes]

j powell is my jesus!

[Tony T]

New all time Highs.
When I turn on CNBC and at these levels they continue to say "stocks are cheap", it always reminds me that in 2008 when the S&P was about 700 they were saying that stocks were expensive.

[veloduffer]

Unfortunately, the market gains only help if you own stocks. About 48% of Americans age 55 and older have no retirement accounts (401K nor IRA). If you exclude those that have pensions, then 29% of these older Americans have neither pension, 401K or IRA account.

With 10K boomers retiring each day (actually turning 65 which is the standard age for retirement), the road ahead will be rougher and require a big adjustment. This is the first generation to face saving for retirement on their own.



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[MattTuck]

Originally Posted by echappist

the one FAANG constituent that should worry people is Netflix. Massive amount of corporate debt borrowed to finance expansion.

Posted when NFLX was 363. After market price today, less than a month later, is 322. Prescient comments in this thread.

[echappist]

Originally Posted by MattTuck

Posted when NFLX was 363. After market price today, less than a month later, is 322. Prescient comments in this thread.

thanks Matt, but I'm merely parroting and got lucky

though as I'm always reminded of one line from a Jay-Z's song called "Falling", "gravity is ill". In finance, that gravity is perhaps the ability to service debt.

[jlwdm]

Originally Posted by MattTuck

Posted when NFLX was 363. After market price today, less than a month later, is 322. Prescient comments in this thread.

I don't agree with this - debt was not the reason for this drop. The stock dropped due to only 50% of projected new subscribers. And because of a decrease in US subscribers for the first time since 2011.

Jeff

[pbarry]

"Let's make movies!" does not make a business model. Someday, there will be tomes written about the co's inner workings, but, from the outside it looks like huge money being thrown at productions, without pro producers with their own $ at stake. And the subscription hikes as competitors jump in + creative accounting.. Still overvalued after a slight reality check today.

[Bisquik]

Netflix is spending on original content in order to offset the losses in 2020 of huge Disney and nbc programs like friends and the Office with their own streaming services

[pbarry]

Originally Posted by Bisquik

Netflix is spending on original content in order to offset the losses in 2020 of huge Disney and nbc programs like friends and the Office with their own streaming services

Yes, that will be a brawl with Disney when it gets going. My point was that it's not clear at all how wisely they are spending to create original content. Due to their creative accounting/amoritizing costs for productions, it's hard for an investor to tell. They may have jumped the shark with rate increases. Still subscribing here.

[Burnette]

Be on the lookout for cheap pants soon! Retail segment of the market is about to pop:

"Bloated inventory levels in the lead-up to back to school is the last thing retailers need. The sector continues to be hammered by Amazon, investments to speed up online shipping, bankruptcies and the need to jack up prices due to the U.S.-China trade war hampering supply chains".

https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance...131816514.html

[Mzilliox]

be a good American and go buy more crap and throw away your old crap... because the market is the only thing we stand for anymore.

[Burnette]

Originally Posted by Mzilliox

be a good American and go buy more crap and throw away your old crap... because the market is the only thing we stand for anymore.

Absolutely, it makes the economic world go around. Thread is about the market, if we talk about what we did and didn't stand for it would get ugly.

And we don't want ugly. And you're totally missing the upside here. Cheap pants!

[raygunner]

Originally Posted by Mzilliox

be a good American and go buy more crap and throw away your old crap... because the market is the only thing we stand for anymore.

Wait, aren’t you the guy who posts pics of your fancy new rigs every other month?

Man, I really need to be a farmer! I need a subsidy for a Moots.

But me thinks your post is some punk song...