Corona Pandemic Thread

[Kirk007]

Originally Posted by HenryA

I was mostly thinking about the centralized control of medical treatment. Why would a doctor need to ask permission for a test or treatment?

Probably a different thread but yes, why indeed? Why do insurance companies get to influence/control medical decisions?

But in the instance of my friend it wasn't permission to test; in mid-January there were no tests, she was looking for guidance in a situation where news reports from China were combining with years of experience telling her that this patient was presenting with symptoms unlike the typical flu or cold or upper respiratory infections that she's dealt throughout her career.

Clearly some slack must be given in dealing with an emergent situation, but my shortcut of her story was that mid-January was the start of a continuing narrative of lack of clear guidance and ever changing protocols on testing etc. right up until the time when a patient tested positive in March, and how that endangered her patients, her colleagues, and herself.

This virus is punishing us humans for our failure to adequately account for low probability but deadly risks of indeterminant timing. I'm not discounting the complexity or difficulty of such planning, but we can do better, much better, than we do.

[Dino Suegiù]

If people still do not believe that self-isolation, social distancing, refraining from lingering in previously or currently occupied environments is the correct behavior now, this article is sobering from the point of view of seemingly innocent methods of transmission and contagion.

Choir practice turns fatal. Airborne coronavirus strongly suspected.

These are the salient points:

With the coronavirus quickly spreading in Washington state in early March, leaders of the Skagit Valley Chorale debated whether to go ahead with weekly rehearsal. Skagit County hadn't reported any cases, schools and businesses remained open, and prohibitions on large gatherings had yet to be announced.

Sixty singers showed up. A greeter offered hand sanitizer at the door, and members refrained from the usual hugs and handshakes. After 2½ hours, the singers parted ways at 9 p.m.

Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.

In interviews with the Los Angeles Times, eight people who were at the rehearsal said that nobody there was coughing or sneezing or appeared ill. Everybody came with their own sheet music and avoided direct physical contact. Some members helped set up or remove folding chairs. A few helped themselves to mandarins that had been put out on a table in back.

At least one of those sixty singers was unknowingly infected, apparently, and now 45 of the 60 are ill, including 2 deceased.

Please heed the warnings, and act responsibly.

[ORMojo]

Originally Posted by fiamme red

"As of Saturday evening, 4,038 people in Florida have tested positive for coronavirus. Of those, 3,877 are residents."

So 96% of those who tested positive in Florida are state residents (if this statistic is true). Now, it's possible that many of those who tested positive had traveled abroad or to the NYC area. But where's the proof?

Or, look at it from the other angle. I'm not saying this is the case, but wouldn't it also be possible that some or all of the 161 non-residents could have seeded the entire outbreak in the state? Most likely some mix of non-residents bringing the virus to FL, and traveling residents returning with it, but with an R-naught of 2.0, it would only take a few days for 161 infected people to result in 4,000 infections.

[Clean39T]

Originally Posted by Dino Suegiù

If people still do not believe that self-isolation, social distancing, refraining from lingering in previously or currently occupied environments is the correct behavior now, this article is sobering from the point of view of seemingly innocent methods of transmission and contagion.

Choir practice turns fatal. Airborne coronavirus strongly suspected.

These are the salient points:

With the coronavirus quickly spreading in Washington state in early March, leaders of the Skagit Valley Chorale debated whether to go ahead with weekly rehearsal. Skagit County hadn't reported any cases, schools and businesses remained open, and prohibitions on large gatherings had yet to be announced.

Sixty singers showed up. A greeter offered hand sanitizer at the door, and members refrained from the usual hugs and handshakes. After 2½ hours, the singers parted ways at 9 p.m.

Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.

In interviews with the Los Angeles Times, eight people who were at the rehearsal said that nobody there was coughing or sneezing or appeared ill. Everybody came with their own sheet music and avoided direct physical contact. Some members helped set up or remove folding chairs. A few helped themselves to mandarins that had been put out on a table in back.

At least one of those sixty singers was unknowingly infected, apparently, and now 45 of the 60 are ill, including 2 deceased.

Please heed the warnings, and act responsibly.

Jeebus. That puts a lot into perspective - spend a couple hours with a group and you're bound to breathe their air.. Or spend an unlucky few minutes in a hall after someone passed through it. F. Me. Just ordered a few masks off etsy.

[verticaldoug]

Originally Posted by Spdntrxi

nice story but it has a few holes...

China was still denying help from the CDC and WHO in early FEB.. so what exactly were they supposed to know about this new virus... I dont think China was saying much in Jan.. so I'd probably cut the CDC and WHO some slack in mid Jan for not knowing much.

In my work, timelines are important and memories are always wrong.

January 11, CDC reported the Chinese had already identified 40 infections from a new virus first identified in December.

January 9, WHO reported dentification of a Novel Coronavirus in China. The sample had been collected December 19. It was already sequenced and released.

On January 23, China locked down Wuhan. Within a week, all of China was lockdown.

Watch what I do, not what I say. At this point what more did you need to see?

Dates according to NCBI.
https://ncbiinsights.ncbi.nlm.nih.go...l-coronavirus/

[marciero]

Originally Posted by Dino Suegiù

...
So how Florida and Mr. DeSantis can claim that, "most are travel from abroad, or NY." is beyond all logic, as even the very narrowest majority of the 4,950 Florida cases would have to number 2,476 all verified travel-related for that claim to obtain, unless he has access to more accurate and current tallies that the CDC is not privy to or has decided not to publish.

Are these people also counting the number of cases that Florida has exported to other states, post spring break festivities? No?

Perhaps the "it's all New York's fault!" researchers are using old tabulators which are still spewing out hanging chads, etc?

Indeed. That's the blatant hypocrisy.

[oliver1850]

An interesting item relative to business fallout:

https://racer.com/2020/03/29/covid-1...dycar-and-ims/

While at the same time laying off workers, Roger Penske and Penske Corporation president Rob Kurnick are forfeiting their salaries for the duration of the pandemic, and board members are waiving "cash compensation" for six months. I'd guess that nobody involved in these corporate pay cuts will experience a significant change in lifestyle as a result, but it's nice to see a response from some folks at that level of income, even if it only amounts to a token amount for them.

[Tony T]

Originally Posted by Clean39T

Jeebus. That puts a lot into perspective - spend a couple hours with a group and you're bound to breathe their air.. Or spend an unlucky few minutes in a hall after someone passed through it. F. Me. Just ordered a few masks off etsy.

That’s how Fairfield County has more than half of the cases in CT.
One person at a party of 40 had no symptoms until he returned home to South Africa. A week later, more than half at the party had symptoms.

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by fiamme red

I don't know where the Daily News reporter got this statistic, but I thought I'd mention it:

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavi...p7u-story.html

"As of Saturday evening, 4,038 people in Florida have tested positive for coronavirus. Of those, 3,877 are residents."

So 96% of those who tested positive in Florida are state residents (if this statistic is true). Now, it's possible that many of those who tested positive had traveled abroad or to the NYC area. But where's the proof?

[Edited to add: This article from Saturday confirms the Daily News statistic: https://www.wfla.com/community/healt...rnight-deaths/.

"As of 7:30 p.m., there are a total of 4,950 cases of COVID-19 in the state. Florida residents account for 4,768 of those cases and non-Florida residents account for 182 cases." That's also about 96%.]

Governor of Florida is GOP, governor of NY-Dem...pretty easy...

I'll put something in perspective, at least for me..wife 69yo with asthma..we will need to self isolate and 'social distance' until there's a vaccine..Daughter in law works in a hospital..I won't see my grand daughters in person until their 8 and 10th birthday(they are both about to turn 7 and 9)...

[AngryScientist]

Originally Posted by Clean39T

Jeebus. That puts a lot into perspective - spend a couple hours with a group and you're bound to breathe their air.. Or spend an unlucky few minutes in a hall after someone passed through it. F. Me. Just ordered a few masks off etsy.

to me this indicates two things:

1) health care workers who work with corona positive patients all day every day are almost certain to get the virus. masks and protective gear are effective, but not 100% if that's the environment you're in all the time, i think it's a safe bet you're breathing something in. This is of course, not good news as we fight the thing

2) some of the self isolation guidance where people who are asked to self quarantine for either being positive or suspected positive in their homes isolated from other members of the household are a joke. assume that if you live in a modestly sized home with someone who is positive, you will get it.

[fmradio516]

Originally Posted by fiamme red

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavi...p7u-story.html

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Saturday that he doesn’t regret leaving the beaches open for spring break even as the coronavirus outbreak spreads through the state.

Reminds me of "Jaws"

[Elefantino]

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[OtayBW]

Originally Posted by Vientomas

...Other than health agencies, the US has intelligenge agencies. People with their ears to the ground, in other countries, including China. They should have known something worth note was occuring in China and reported the same up the chain or command. That's what the intelligence agencies are tasked to do.

- US intelligence agency reports, starting in January, warned of the scale and intensity of the coronavirus outbreak in China depicted the nature and global spread of the virus and China's apparent downplaying of its severity, as well as the potential need for government measures to contain it.

- Citing US officials familiar with the agencies' reports and warnings, "The system was blinking red."

Looks like the intelligence agencies were on the ball.

Originally Posted by Dino Suegiù

One would think they certainly were.
The intelligence agencies are not the weak link in the chain.
This is more like having a really stupidly defective master or Connex link, when you think that is going to the queen bee of all the links.


There was ample time for responsible assessment and scaling of preparation, regardless. That time was used terribly, and tragically, as we are seeing.

Canary in the coal mine is what comes to mind. Hard to miss a dead canary unless it's intentional...

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by OtayBW

Canary in the coal mine is what comes to mind. Hard to miss a dead canary unless it's intentional...

Or due to intentional ignorance or due to intentional selfishness or due to..........

The info was 'out there', but if history is any indication as to how much the intel agencies are 'trusted'..good info from them but seen as 'not loyal'. Good info that is tough info='not loyal'....

[OtayBW]

Originally Posted by oldpotatoe

Or due to intentional ignorance or due to intentional selfishness or due to..........

The info was 'out there', but if history is any indication as to how much the intel agencies are 'trusted'..good info from them but seen as 'not loyal'. Good info that is tough info='not loyal'....

All of the above, PLUS....