OT: the housing crisis in the Bay Area (and beyond...)

[DuddyJ]

Its funny the major of Walnut Creek is defending single family homes while apartment buildings and complexes are taking over Walnut Creek.... The amount of apartment construction near BART is insane.

[XXtwindad]

Originally Posted by MattTuck

So, we now have our resident scapegoat


It seems like a hugely complex issue with a multitude of contributing factors and underlying causes. I'm not a CA citizen, but I would be against a policy here in NH that allowed the state to take control of the housing market like that.

On the other hand, if I own my house in Walnut ridge, and I retired, and I wanted to convert it into a 2 or 3 unit property so that I could live in it, and rent out the other units for income, I think I should have the right to do that within reason (maintaining the previous appearance and footprint, providing adequate off street parking, etc.) . If local codes prevent that, then I suppose this law may make sense to give people that freedom.

At a broader level, I don't really see the problem with housing affordability. Many parts of the country have sub 5% unemployment rates and better cost of living than the bay area. My memory is foggy, but pretty sure the declaration of independence listed life, liberty and the PURSUIT of happiness as unalienable rights. Don't remember it including the right to live in a beautiful climate.

When I first moved to San Francisco, in December of 1989, I rented a studio in the Tenderloin for $325 a month. The average Tenderloin studio now goes for $1,800 per month. That area has long been considered San Francisco's "seedy" neighborhood, although it is much more gentrified since I last lived there.

I do believe that people besides high tech workers should be able to call the Bay Area home.

[Bostic]

I spent Saturday with my wife looking at various homes along the San Francisco Peninsula (San Mateo to Mountain View) to see what one million will buy. It ran the gamut from turn key narrow town homes with zero actual living space to 900 square feet absolute wrecks that have had not a dime of money spent on upkeep in 30 years. One had an illegal storage shed converted to a bedroom in the backyard. Another home was just ok but you'd be a prisoner on the street during rush hour and the weekends from traffic.

Any Condo in a somewhat nice area is snapped up almost immediately.

[mtechnica]

Originally Posted by XXtwindad

I do believe that people besides high tech workers should be able to call the Bay Area home.

Indeed. The problem is there are restaurants, retail stores, and countless other forms of employment where people are needed in the area, but these jobs don’t pay enough for their employees to actually live where near they work. If everyone that made less than 100k a year just left I’d be curious what would happen. The crazy thing is I’m a mechanical engineer and I could barely afford a garbage apartment in that area. Something has to give eventually.

[Ozz]

Originally Posted by Elefantino

...the other part of the problem is the people who sell for astronomical prices, .....

They should take less than what is offered? This makes no sense to me....buyers drive up prices...not the sellers.

[mtechnica]

Originally Posted by Ozz

They should take less than what is offered? This makes no sense to me....buyers drive up prices...not the sellers.

What sucks too is that people trying to get their money out of China or wherever can buy houses in North America then let them sit empty.

[Ozz]

Originally Posted by mtechnica

What sucks too is that people trying to get their money out of China or wherever can buy houses in North America then let them sit empty.

Oh I know....there are a couple houses on my street that sold last year and have been empty. No idea who the buyers were....

At least a garden service comes by once a month to mow the lawns and clean up......

IIRC, a similar think happened to Vancouver when Hong Kong was handed over to PRC.

[bicycletricycle]

Increasing housing supply is the only real way to push housing prices down. Let people build or watch the prices increase.

[mtechnica]

Originally Posted by Ozz

Oh I know....there are a couple houses on my street that sold last year and have been empty. No idea who the buyers were....

At least a garden service comes by once a month to mow the lawns and clean up......

IIRC, a similar think happened to Vancouver when Hong Kong was handed over to PRC.

Yeah I’m pretty sure Vancouvers situation is at least as bad as the Bay Area.

[prototoast]

Originally Posted by mtechnica

Yeah I’m pretty sure Vancouvers situation is at least as bad as the Bay Area.

Some of this is just foreign money parking, but some of this is also abet on more relaxed zoning laws. I know in Menlo Park, where I previously worked, a lot of v properties that sat vacant we're being held as companies lobbied for the town to allow them to build larger units. It doesn't make sense to develop a single family home or small multi-family home if you think in the near future you could be able to develop a larger residential and/or commercial structure.

[ZeKGB]

I live in Hollister, which is at about the outer edge of exurban Silicon Valley and our local politics is close to 100% consumed with development issues brought about by the scarcity of housing in the South Bay Area. There aren't any easy answers but in general I think Gov Newsom is on the right track by using lots of sticks and a few carrots to get local governments to approve higher density developments.

[echappist]

Originally Posted by mtechnica

Yeah I’m pretty sure Vancouvers situation is at least as bad as the Bay Area.

at least they decided to do something about it (iirc, there's a tax to be paid for letting a residence go unoccupied)

[FlashUNC]

Originally Posted by Elefantino

It's the unspoken reality, even in Oakland and Berkeley.


The other part of the problem is the people who sell for astronomical prices, particularly as the result of bidding wars, which has artificially driven up the cost of all real estate and further exacerbated the affordable housing problem. I'm talking about all the tech bros who flip homes for fun because they've got nothing else to do.

I'm also looking in the mirror. However, I'm never coming back so I do not feel guilty.

Spare bike is always on the hook if you're back in the hood and want to go for a spin.

Originally Posted by XXtwindad

This is an interesting statement. Why do you identify as "part of the problem?" Is it your relatively recent tenure in the Bay Area? Income level? Occupation? Ethnicity? Other?

A late stage Millenial white dude working in a tech-adjacent industry who moved into the Bay in the last 10 years, and lives in an absurdly expensive apartment in part of a gentrifying section of West Berkeley.

I am 100% emblematic of the problem for huge section of the East Bay, and the Bay Area more broadly. Just look at what's happening in West Oakland right now.

[pdonk]

Originally Posted by echappist

at least they decided to do something about it (iirc, there's a tax to be paid for letting a residence go unoccupied)

There is both a non residents tax and a non occupancy tax.

In Ontario we have a foreign purchasers tax. What we have found on our projects is that the foreign investors range depending largely by community where the project is and value of homes being sold.

In terms the comment about condos and high density near the BART. In Ontario it is required that the density be in the 200 people / jobs per ha range (80 people and jobs /acre) or about 60 units/ha (30 units/acre). When you consider the investment by the "public" sector in transit, it makes sense.

For context a typical low density single family development contains 8 units/acre and a moderate density townhouse project is in the 15 units /acre range.

The architects of our planning by numbers claim that 2o units/acre is what is needed to support bus transit.

Finally, in terms of valuation of land, one also has to look at the construction cost per unit and sales price per unit. Just because you can cram units into a site, does not always make the most economic sense as a developer.

I think about this stuff all day every day.

[m4rk540]

Originally Posted by bicycletricycle

Increasing housing supply is the only real way to push housing prices down. Let people build or watch the prices increase.

But there's no incentive to build "affordable" housing. Rents increased 7% in Los Angeles and the majority of construction is for luxury units.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/b...s-angeles.html