COVID-19 reality for us

[Gsinill]

Originally Posted by jimcav

Well, if you assume a 2% fatality rate, that is of those ill-enough to seek care. The number infected will FAR exceed the number who become ill from that infection. WITHOUT widespread testing that is estimated at 4:1 (mild or asymptomatic infection to actually ill). So if 2% CFR (not of total cases, but of the ill-enough to seek care), then 200k dying means that is 50 million infected. I hope we beat 2%, but in other areas with similar growth curves, CFR has been 4+%. Let's limit it as much as we can.

According to the CDC (via NYT) "As many as 25% of people infected...may not show symptoms."

[oldpotatoe]

As of this morning. USA

188,247 reported as infected, 3912 deaths-2.08%

[jimcav]

Originally Posted by oldpotatoe

Assuming a lot..just looking for some better 'feeling' info is all. Lots we don't know, of course, like a firm number of those who have gotten infected and have recovered....since many get sick, stayed at home, and then get better.

My point for this layman, who is looking for some 'better' news..MOST won't get sick, and MOST that do, still recover. NOT saying that 'happy days are here again', and we should jump into that hot tub with 20 of our closest friends but...just looking for 'better' news..Like the guy always said in Blade Runner, 'have a better one'...
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/4c5dfec...8-1f78e26b0be8

but I will definitely post if incoming data turns positive. I know you and most take it seriously, but for me right now the good news is we CAN make a difference, and so MUST. I guess I have some anxiety that any message akin to "most will be fine" will only encourage those who aren't taking it seriously to continue on that fool's path. I know that is not your intent. Your assumption on CFR for USA was good, as for the USA right now it is right at 2%, (3888 deaths /186991 total cases was what i used)--we know that is mostly all based on symptomatically ill at medical point of care testing, and that most areas are not yet overwhelmed as far as hospital systems...

[cmg]

scary times. The ramp up will probably happen in late April. Gets worse before it gets better. And then there will be second wave. https://www.sootoday.com/global-news...canada-2199249 practice social distancing and wearing a mask.

[jimcav]

Originally Posted by Gsinill

According to the CDC (via NYT) "As many as 25% of people infected...may not show symptoms."

most reports have shown only 15-20% of those infected are ill enough to "care" and go to the doctor. I used 20%. The 25% with NO symptoms are the most dangerous for spreading it. If we all act as if anyone MAY have it, we will make a real difference.

[AngryScientist]

Originally Posted by jimcav

most reports have shown only 15-20% of those infected are ill enough to "care" and go to the doctor. I used 20%. The 25% with NO symptoms are the most dangerous for spreading it. If we all act as if anyone MAY have it, we will make a real difference.

OK, two serious questions:

1) is there a consensus on how long a person who has this is contagious?

2) is there definitive answer on if you definitely (tested) had it, and recovered - you should be good to go right? go ahead and live your life because you cant get it or give it any more?

true?

[Clean39T]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEr4rmjwd0g

Perspectives on the Pandemic with Dr. John Ioannidis

Posting this again for those who didn't see it in the other thread. All actions have consequences. We are undergoing a mass experiment in conducting social and public-health policy not based on facts or science but on media frenzy and political weather-forecasting. We need science and hard reasoning to drive the crucial decisions being made. Both are in shorter supply these days than TP and Lysol.

An estimated 88,000 people (approximately 62,000 men and 26,000 women) die from alcohol-related causes annually, making alcohol the third leading preventable cause of death in the United States. Let's start a ticker on CNN for those deaths. Let's tell every individual story. Let's talk about the social irresponsibility of stores selling a drug that kills so many people every year and shame anyone who causes the use of alcohol to spread.

At least 2.8 million adults die each year as a result of being overweight or obese (globally).

The cure invoked right now may be worse than the disease and may kill more people and ruin more lives than it will save. That may be true, it may not. But we need the experts to do the work and tell us - that is what living in a global society is all about. These questions are too big for our caveman brains to process unless we've spent a lifetime doing so. We are being lead by the people who have spent a lifetime learning how to manipulate us for profit and political power. It's time to instead put the scientists in charge, trust them and act accordingly.

I'll still be putting a makeshift mask on later when I leave the house/apartment - not so much for my own safety, but because the sooner we normalize the wearing of masks, the sooner we can start to turn down the panic meter and realize that we need to get back to living our lives and running our society while taking due precautions - living healthy, boosting our immunity with good food and exercise, washing up before eating, etc.

[cmg]

i thought there is a possibility of reinfection after you gone through it. Similar to the flu. here's a link to the CDC FAQ https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/faq.html

[Spdntrxi]

Originally Posted by Gummee

I'm just not seeing what they're predicting firsthand.

M

lets hope that continues

[yinzerniner]

Originally Posted by AngryScientist

OK, two serious questions:

1) is there a consensus on how long a person who has this is contagious?

2) is there definitive answer on if you definitely (tested) had it, and recovered - you should be good to go right? go ahead and live your life because you cant get it or give it any more?

true?

This is from a friend in the CDC as well as a PA

1 - Believed to be 7-15 days. But even that number isn't 100% solid since so many people are asymptomatic. And even "recovered" people could possibly still be carriers. Source: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...after-recovery
2 - Since the virus is so new it's not clear whether recovered people are fully immune. But there have been a few cases of repeat infections. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/...after-covid19/

[benb]

Originally Posted by oldpotatoe

I'll add this and it makes ZERO difference if you or a loved one is infected BUT..
'assuming' 'about' 200,000 deaths, means 'about', 10 million infected which means you will be one of 'about' 3% of the population infected. 3%, 97% not infected....Also means of those infected, 9.8 million will recover. Just looking for some decent numbers..Even if they mean not much..

It might be because she's right in the thick of it in NY but my sister is a viral immunologist/assistant professor at Mt. Sinai in NYC in that lab where they developed the antibody test to check if a person has already recovered and where they are starting with injecting antibodies into critical patients. She is actually volunteering to donate plasma if she tests as recovered (she had an illness with the correct symptoms before anyone was testing.)

In any case she is still way way way more morbid about this. She would laugh at 3% of the population infected... she thinks it's going to be at least 10x more of us infected.

She is 100% of the mentality that "it's just as bad everywhere else as NYC and you're just behind on the curve and don't know it yet." Exactly what Governor Cuomo has been saying.

I hope she's wrong. I like these 3% type numbers way better.

And there are no pictures from most areas of the US with stupidity like the crowds in NYC that keep showing up in the news. I really want to be onboard with the idea that density + stupidity + late action in NYC is a different set of variables than the rest of the country.

A lot of models are showing the rest of the states will not be as bad as NY. I really want to believe social distancing didn't work/wasn't severe enough/was too late around NYC.

[Cantdog]

Originally Posted by Clean39T

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEr4rmjwd0g

Perspectives on the Pandemic with Dr. John Ioannidis

Posting this again for those who didn't see it in the other thread. All actions have consequences. We are undergoing a mass experiment in conducting social and public-health policy not based on facts or science but on media frenzy and political weather-forecasting. We need science and hard reasoning to drive the crucial decisions being made. Both are in shorter supply these days than TP and Lysol.

An estimated 88,000 people (approximately 62,000 men and 26,000 women) die from alcohol-related causes annually, making alcohol the third leading preventable cause of death in the United States. Let's start a ticker on CNN for those deaths. Let's tell every individual story. Let's talk about the social irresponsibility of stores selling a drug that kills so many people every year and shame anyone who causes the use of alcohol to spread.

At least 2.8 million adults die each year as a result of being overweight or obese (globally).

The cure invoked right now may be worse than the disease and may kill more people and ruin more lives than it will save. That may be true, it may not. But we need the experts to do the work and tell us - that is what living in a global society is all about. These questions are too big for our caveman brains to process unless we've spent a lifetime doing so. We are being lead by the people who have spent a lifetime learning how to manipulate us for profit and political power. It's time to instead put the scientists in charge, trust them and act accordingly.

I'll still be putting a makeshift mask on later when I leave the house/apartment - not so much for my own safety, but because the sooner we normalize the wearing of masks, the sooner we can start to turn down the panic meter and realize that we need to get back to living our lives and running our society while taking due precautions - living healthy, boosting our immunity with good food and exercise, washing up before eating, etc.

I understand the comparison to alcohol in number of deaths, but health effects of alcohol are both acute and chronic. Some will die from driving intoxicated/accidents/suicide while intoxicated, but many will die from hepatocellular carcinoma, alcohol related dementia, cirrhosis, etc. Those deaths build for decades. What is also frightening is we do not know the long term health effects of serious infections from COVID19. Maybe people get better and never have any long term impacts? I hope so.

Some potential issues--physical: we do not know if the lung changes 2/2 COVID19 fully reverse or cause long term issues. Same goes for those who develop cardiomyopathy. Psychological--on average, 10-20% of individuals in ICUs report subsequent PTSD related to hospitalization. Much higher with PTSD symptoms. This has long term consequences for the patient, families, etc.

For those who are older or who have comorbidities, an infection just isn't an infection. An infection is often the thing that leads to using up what functional reserves someone has. That means needing more help at home, worsening underlying disease status, needing rehab or transitioning to long term care, or entering a new phase of illness where things start to change more rapidly. Yes, there are immediate effects of COVID19, but most people don't need one other thing to add to the equation.

[OtayBW]

The thing that gets me is the uncertainty of the length of the incubation period - not so much for others who can transmit even asymptomatically - but for me!
Everytime I go out to the store for groceries (~every 5-7 days), it resets the potential incubation clock and so I sit around all week wondering if my throat is a little scratchy after that last trip, or if there is a bit of a cough starting. It's kind of an insideous 'watching'....

Paranoia strikes deep.....

[Cantdog]

Originally Posted by benb

It might be because she's right in the thick of it in NY but my sister is a viral immunologist/assistant professor at Mt. Sinai in NYC in that lab where they developed the antibody test to check if a person has already recovered and where they are starting with injecting antibodies into critical patients. She is actually volunteering to donate plasma if she tests as recovered (she had an illness with the correct symptoms before anyone was testing.)

In any case she is still way way way more morbid about this. She would laugh at 3% of the population infected... she thinks it's going to be at least 10x more of us infected.

She is 100% of the mentality that "it's just as bad everywhere else as NYC and you're just behind on the curve and don't know it yet." Exactly what Governor Cuomo has been saying.

I hope she's wrong. I like these 3% type numbers way better.

And there are no pictures from most areas of the US with stupidity like the crowds in NYC that keep showing up in the news. I really want to be onboard with the idea that density + stupidity + late action in NYC is a different set of variables than the rest of the country.

A lot of models are showing the rest of the states will not be as bad as NY. I really want to believe social distancing didn't work/wasn't severe enough/was too late around NYC.

I'm hoping that what we have done in MA will make it not as severe here as in NYC. I think the early actions by the governor, state insurance companies quickly adapting to telehealth, and the healthcare system starting respiratory clinicis to unburden emergency departments, clear spaces(set up new facilities) for pts who cant return to nursing homes, etc will help. But time will tell, and we are still two weeks from projected peak here. Ugh.

[jimcav]

Originally Posted by yinzerniner

This is from a friend in the CDC as well as a PA

1 - Believed to be 7-15 days. But even that number isn't 100% solid since so many people are asymptomatic. And even "recovered" people could possibly still be carriers. Source: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...after-recovery
2 - Since the virus is so new it's not clear whether recovered people are fully immune. But there have been a few cases of repeat infections. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/...after-covid19/

documented transmission up to 27 days I have read. One case series showed one individual had fecal shedding for 43 days! Time to become infected after exposure also has a wide range, from 5 days to 2-3 weeks. Most papers are using a 14 day average.
There are very limited studies of the recovered (the sick ones who make it) as far as shedding and immunity. And almost nothing out there on the asymptomatics--there hasn't been a lot of excess capacity to look into that deeply. I'll keep checking and post what I read

edit--sorry i meant to capture the original question from Angry as well vs appearing to reply only to your post