OT: the housing crisis in the Bay Area (and beyond...)

[XXtwindad]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

Spare bike is always on the hook if you're back in the hood and want to go for a spin.



A late stage Millenial white dude working in a tech-adjacent industry who moved into the Bay in the last 10 years, and lives in an absurdly expensive apartment in part of a gentrifying section of West Berkeley.

I am 100% emblematic of the problem for huge section of the East Bay, and the Bay Area more broadly. Just look at what's happening in West Oakland right now.

Well, this is a complicated problem, isn't it? I could certainly demonize large swaths of the tech community. But that would be disingenuous on my part. Several of my long-term clients come from the tech world. So, as much as I can castigate techies for all the changes they've wrought, I rely on them for my income.

I have a friend who is more sanguine about the transformation of the City. (Not coincidentally, he's also more affluent, so he's mostly inured from the consequences) He compared the situation to the Gay community replacing the Irish/Italian community in the Castro. But I don't see it. When the Gay influx happened in the 70s, it didn't jack up real estate prices in Portrero Hill and beyond.

There definitely is - and should be - a role for government in the solution.

[bicycletricycle]

You might want to put quotes on "luxury units" as well

What is affordable housing? Affordable is what the people who want to rent a place can afford right? If the rent was truly unaffordable nobody would rent it and the price would come down.

If a location is in high demand the housing prices should go up. It is the fairest way to ration the sought after commodity. If you cannot afford the cost of living in a location you should move. I have moved multiple times because I could not afford the cost of living in an area. We do not have a right to live in a particular location.

Anyways, the government has the ability to artificially raise the incentives to build "affordable housing" if they want to. I do not think these programs tend to work very well (corruption around rent control and developer incentives is extremely common) but they have levers that they can use, some of which are outlined in the report you linked to.

Whatever anyone does or doesn't do increasing supply or decreasing demand is the only way to reduce costs. How you accomplish this is up for debate.

Originally Posted by m4rk540

But there's no incentive to build "affordable" housing. Rents increased 7% in Los Angeles and the majority of construction is for luxury units.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/b...s-angeles.html

[82Picchio]

Snip:

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

A late stage Millenial white dude working in a tech-adjacent industry who moved into the Bay in the last 10 years, and lives in an absurdly expensive apartment in part of a gentrifying section of West Berkeley.

I am 100% emblematic of the problem for huge section of the East Bay, and the Bay Area more broadly.

As much as Flash is emblematic of the problem (I'll personally vouch for that), I am on the flip side of the problem and am just as responsible for it: I bought my starter house in 1998 in Upper Rockridge neighborhood in Oakland. You couldn't get a garage for what I paid for the house back then. And I have to tell you, I am not moving. The house is almost paid off and even if I sold it for well into seven figures, all I could afford would be a similarly-sized bungalow, the only difference being a huge leap in property taxes. My neighborhood is fully developed, as is most of Oakland hills and foothills and they aren't going to put in any more housing stock up here and riding is spectacular. In the flats, where multi-story condominium and apartment buildings are breeding like bunnies (construction only delayed by a series of arson fires going on for three years now), it's an altogether different story.

[weisan]

Are we looking at the future of Austin, Texas?

[XXtwindad]

Originally Posted by weisan

Are we looking at the future of Austin, Texas?

Austin ranks very high on the list of cities that ex Bay Area people moved to. So, there's part of your answer ...

[echappist]

We could look to Singapore for what could be accomplished. But i dont imagine anything remotely comparable to be accomplished.

California, for all intents and purposes, might as well be Monaco...

[AngryScientist]

Originally Posted by 82Picchio

Snip:

I bought my starter house in 1998...

even if I sold it for well into seven figures,

this is the part that baffles me about the bay area.

where is all the money coming from? Is there really enough career opportunity paying enough to allow young people to break into "starter homes" for deep into the seven figure territory?

seems like a bubble on the verge of bust when the number of buyers runs out for the asking prices...

rent is a totally different story, of course...

[FlashUNC]

Originally Posted by AngryScientist

this is the part that baffles me about the bay area.

where is all the money coming from? Is there really enough career opportunity paying enough to allow young people to break into "starter homes" for deep into the seven figure territory?

seems like a bubble on the verge of bust when the number of buyers runs out for the asking prices...

rent is a totally different story, of course...

Google, Facebook, Salesforce. Take your pick. Recent study came out, 1 in every 11,000 people in San Francisco is a Billionaire. The economics of everything are so out of whack because of the distortion field that is tech money.

[prototoast]

Originally Posted by AngryScientist

this is the part that baffles me about the bay area.

where is all the money coming from? Is there really enough career opportunity paying enough to allow young people to break into "starter homes" for deep into the seven figure territory?

seems like a bubble on the verge of bust when the number of buyers runs out for the asking prices...

rent is a totally different story, of course...

People fresh out of college are making 80-120k/year here. Many of the large companies' stock has appreciated so much that those who were getting even modest stock grants/options 10 years ago have a lot of money to drop right now. Venture funding makes a lot of speculative millionaires. And that's before you get into the doctors, lawyers, professors, accountants, and other professionals who one would expect to be well-compensated.

[bward1028]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

Google, Facebook, Salesforce. Take your pick. Recent study came out, 1 in every 11,000 people in San Francisco is a Billionaire. The economics of everything are so out of whack because of the distortion field that is tech money.

That's still only ~80 billionaires.

One thing people forget is that SF has a population of 885k, basically the same as Columbus Oh. Austin's more populous.

[GonaSovereign]

[QUOTE=pdonk;2540074]Actually I'm actually the scapegoat - a planner that works for a developer.

Just as long as you aren't the guy knocking down the Matador to build condos. That guy will be haunted by the ghost of Leonard Cohen.

[ultraman6970]

885k??? thought more people lived there.

[prototoast]

Originally Posted by ultraman6970

885k??? thought more people lived there.

There's about 10 million people in the broader "Bay area" including San Francisco, Oakland, San Jose, and surrounding counties.

[ojingoh]

Originally Posted by Ozz

Oh I know....there are a couple houses on my street that sold last year and have been empty. No idea who the buyers were....

At least a garden service comes by once a month to mow the lawns and clean up......

IIRC, a similar think happened to Vancouver when Hong Kong was handed over to PRC.

https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...-housing-boom/

[GonaSovereign]

Originally Posted by mtechnica

Yeah I’m pretty sure Vancouvers situation is at least as bad as the Bay Area.

And arguably worse. In the Bay Area there are head offices and plenty of high-paying jobs fuelling the situation. There are very few notable head offices in Vancouver, and a solid percentage of housing stock is bought up by people paying with ¥ they want out of China, often leaving the property empty and often not contributing to the local economy. So the city becomes poorer while property is more expensive. Lose lose. Too bad, because it's a lovely place. Admittedly prices are coming down now, thanks in part to gov't intervention.