OT: 2019-20 NBA Discussions

[Jaybee]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

Or they just go Seven Seconds or Less Suns and try to drop 140 a game. Who knows D'Antoni might be free for a gig this offseason.

I've always liked "evolutionary Steve Nash" as a better comp for Trae than Curry anyway.

[FlashUNC]

Originally Posted by Jaybee

I've always liked "evolutionary Steve Nash" as a better comp for Trae than Curry anyway.

Same, he hunts for the pass more than Curry does, frankly. But you get two short guys who can chuck from 35 feet, and suddenly the comps just grow out of the woodwork.

[Jaybee]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

Same, he hunts for the pass more than Curry does, frankly. But you get two short guys who can chuck from 35 feet, and suddenly the comps just grow out of the woodwork.

If my pickup games are any indication, all the kids are chucking from 35 these days. It will be interesting to see how that trickles into college and NBA over the coming years.

[Jaybee]

Milwaukee - Toronto was really interesting last night. SVG (who is probably the best person doing TV commentary these days if it's not Doris) rightly pointed out that Milwaukee's defense (which is #1 in the league by a healthy margin) is focused on taking away layups but that leaves them vulnerable to the variances of 3 point shooting. They do this by keeping everyone back (especially the hermanos Lopez) and never going over the top of any screen. They yield the most 3PA of any team in the league, but their playing an numbers game; if we never give you a layup, we don't think you can hit enough 3's

Similarly, Toronto's defense also prizes cutting off driving lanes, but they do this by constantly applying pressure from new angles and vociferously committing to running shooters off the line. Still this yields a lot of odd-man drive and kick situations, and they yield the second most 3s in the league, but nearly every one is contested. They don't think you can shoot well enough over Siakam - Ibaka - Anunoby - Hollis-Jefferson to make enough 3s to beat them.

Two of the best defenses in the league, giving up a ton of threes in the space and pace era, two different ways of getting there. Fun stuff if you're an unrepentant hoops nerd like me.

[XXtwindad]

Originally Posted by Jaybee

Milwaukee - Toronto was really interesting last night. SVG (who is probably the best person doing TV commentary these days if it's not Doris) rightly pointed out that Milwaukee's defense (which is #1 in the league by a healthy margin) is focused on taking away layups but that leaves them vulnerable to the variances of 3 point shooting. They do this by keeping everyone back (especially the hermanos Lopez) and never going over the top of any screen. They yield the most 3PA of any team in the league, but their playing an numbers game; if we never give you a layup, we don't think you can hit enough 3's

Similarly, Toronto's defense also prizes cutting off driving lanes, but they do this by constantly applying pressure from new angles and vociferously committing to running shooters off the line. Still this yields a lot of odd-man drive and kick situations, and they yield the second most 3s in the league, but nearly every one is contested. They don't think you can shoot well enough over Siakam - Ibaka - Anunoby - Hollis-Jefferson to make enough 3s to beat them.

Two of the best defenses in the league, giving up a ton of threes in the space and pace era, two different ways of getting there. Fun stuff if you're an unrepentant hoops nerd like me.

I think that's smart basketball. A top 3 point shooter hits 40% of his shots...so do the math. FWIW (and not incidentally) the Bucks lead the league in boards.

[FlashUNC]

So then it's the chicken and the egg discussion. There's only one team in the East in the Top 5 in 3PA per game, and that's Milwaukee. Brooklyn is sitting just outside at 6.

Could their approaches work in the grind of the West where every team is more 3 ball hungry than the East? I doubt either team would be so willing to sag off if they had to deal with Harden stepbacks or Curry off ball screens 4 times a year.

And if you're the Bucks, that's 100% the approach you take to stop Ben Simmons or Kyle Lowry from killing you.

But as the Bucks have shown, they're suffocating pretty much everyone this year. Every team that's been where they are in terms of team offensive and defensive rating has won the title.

[Jaybee]

Originally Posted by XXtwindad

I think that's smart basketball. A top 3 point shooter hits 40% of his shots...so do the math. FWIW (and not incidentally) the Bucks lead the league in boards.

Here's some rough math, just guessing what an average , not looking this up:

Transition Layups/Dunks: ~80%, 1.6 pts/poss
Half court Layups/Dunks: ~58%, 1.16 points/poss
Midrange and Post up Shots: ~43%, 0.86 points/poss
Free Throws: 75%, 1.5 points/poss (assumes 2 FTs)
Contested 3s: 33%, 1.00 points/poss
Open 3s: 37%, 1.11 points/poss

So it makes sense, over the long run, to prioritize a defense that 1) doesn't foul 2) limits transition 3) protects the paint and if you still have some bandwidth after all that, 4) contest on the perimeter.

I think Flash has some good points that the previous version of the Dubs and the Rockets have been essentially making the opposite bet: If we take enough threes, the math will eventually work out in our favor. But I think the real point of the "analytics revolution" is that an efficient offense doesn't let non-superstar players take midrange or post-up shots. Every team who wins is on board with this now.

I'm also starting to see Milwaukee as the prohibitive favorite - I think they match up really well with every West contender and I don't think anyone in the East can take 4 out of 7 off them. If FVV Sr. hadn't gotten magical powers from FVV Jr. last year, we'd probably be talking about repeat champions. The fun part about the playoffs though is that we are just one Simmons - Jimmy Butler - Jayson Tatum - LeBron - Harden - Jokic hot streak away from having a different champion.

[Jaybee]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

So then it's the chicken and the egg discussion. There's only one team in the East in the Top 5 in 3PA per game, and that's Milwaukee. Brooklyn is sitting just outside at 6.

Could their approaches work in the grind of the West where every team is more 3 ball hungry than the East? I doubt either team would be so willing to sag off if they had to deal with Harden stepbacks or Curry off ball screens 4 times a year.

And if you're the Bucks, that's 100% the approach you take to stop Ben Simmons or Kyle Lowry from killing you.

But as the Bucks have shown, they're suffocating pretty much everyone this year. Every team that's been where they are in terms of team offensive and defensive rating has won the title.

I think the real key to the Rockets/Dubs offenses is that they not only take enough threes to make the math work, but that they also open up things enough that Curry, Harden, Westbrook are getting to the rim and getting the real best shot in basketball - a layup from a competent finisher. The Bucks are saying "Nah. No layups, ever. We don't believe you can hit enough threes to offset the fact that you'll never get a layup." It's interesting, and they never deviate from it, and though it makes sense over the long term, it could absolutely bite them in the playoffs over the short term if someone like Duncan Robinson is hot.

[FlashUNC]

Originally Posted by Jaybee

I think the real key to the Rockets/Dubs offenses is that they not only take enough threes to make the math work, but that they also open up things enough that Curry, Harden, Westbrook are getting to the rim and getting the real best shot in basketball - a layup from a competent finisher. The Bucks are saying "Nah. No layups, ever. We don't believe you can hit enough threes to offset the fact that you'll never get a layup." It's interesting, and they never deviate from it, and though it makes sense over the long term, it could absolutely bite them in the playoffs over the short term if someone like Duncan Robinson is hot.

I do wonder how it shifts to playoff basketball, but then again I think Coach Bud is one of the smartest X's and O's guys around not afraid to deviate from gameplan wildly as the series and matchups dictate. Never count out LeBron, but I do think its the Bucks' title to lose this year.

That defense is scary good, and it's what the 2015-2016 Hawks defense would have been with absurd athletes at each position over, say, DeMarre Carroll and Kyle Korver.

[FlashUNC]

And can someone please rescue Bradley Beal from Wizards Hell? He shouldn't have to suffer through carrying the load with broken down John Wall.

[Jaybee]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

And can someone please rescue Bradley Beal from Wizards Hell? He shouldn't have to suffer through carrying the load with broken down John Wall.

He bought this himself when he signed an extension last summer. Can't be traded until July. I would love to see him on any number of other teams though. My favorite spot is the Nuggets.

[Jaybee]

Me and every other Thunder fan went through a decade of dealing with the ups and downs of Russell Westbrook, understanding that the all-consuming fire of obstinance that drives him was feast or famine. All we really wanted was for him to just not shoot so many threes. Use those otherworldly athletic gifts to get to the rim. Be a hammer, not a scalpel.

So it is with a little bit of "what the hell, man" that we watch our ex finally turn into the mini-Giannis that he was always supposed to be, storming into the post, going quick off the catch, bullying anyone less than 6'5", hell bullying Rudy Freaking Gobert to the tune of 73 points in 2 games. It's what we always wanted for him, but dammit, why couldn't you do that when you were in OKC?

[FlashUNC]

Originally Posted by Jaybee

Me and every other Thunder fan went through a decade of dealing with the ups and downs of Russell Westbrook, understanding that the all-consuming fire of obstinance that drives him was feast or famine. All we really wanted was for him to just not shoot so many threes. Use those otherworldly athletic gifts to get to the rim. Be a hammer, not a scalpel.

So it is with a little bit of "what the hell, man" that we watch our ex finally turn into the mini-Giannis that he was always supposed to be, storming into the post, going quick off the catch, bullying anyone less than 6'5", hell bullying Rudy Freaking Gobert to the tune of 73 points in 2 games. It's what we always wanted for him, but dammit, why couldn't you do that when you were in OKC?

D'Antoni vs Scott Brooks/Billy Donovan.

[XXtwindad]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

And can someone please rescue Bradley Beal from Wizards Hell? He shouldn't have to suffer through carrying the load with broken down John Wall.

Beal had back to back 50 point games. And just got drug tested.
https://www.bing.com/search?q=bradle...lvar=0&PC=DCTS

[Jaybee]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

D'Antoni vs Scott Brooks/Billy Donovan.

Certainly D'Antoni (and Morey) are providing a nice context for Russ to do his thing. And Scott Brooks was infuriating. I think Donovan is a good coach though - he's got a .500 group of guys playing .620 ball.

It seemed to me over the past several years that two things really plagued the Thunder - Russ's inability or unwillingness to do anything Russ didn't want to do, and Presti's inability or unwillingness to put anything resembling spacing around Russ.