“Outside” Magazine thinks the “Bike Boom” may be here to stay. I have my doubts.

[jimoots]

Heaps more people on bikes, good.

A decent percentage of those people will realise that bikes are useful for doing things they used to do a car for. Or replace other exercise they did, but doesn't require a membership or whatever.

And then a smaller, but still decent, percentage will get hooked and be like most of us here.

That same percentage split happens on any given year. If 1000 bikes got sold in 2019, 700 of the people who bought bikes had them gather dust.

All being equal. The percentage of people who appreciate them for what they are or got hooked or whatever, remains constant.

Boom is a boom, and when it comes to cycling that's a good thing for everyone, positive externalities and all. Quit naysaying!

[Gummee]

Originally Posted by jimmy-moots

Heaps more people on bikes, good.

A decent percentage of those people will realise that bikes are useful for doing things they used to do a car for. Or replace other exercise they did, but doesn't require a membership or whatever.

And then a smaller, but still decent, percentage will get hooked and be like most of us here.

That same percentage split happens on any given year. If 1000 bikes got sold in 2019, 700 of the people who bought bikes had them gather dust.

All being equal. The percentage of people who appreciate them for what they are or got hooked or whatever, remains constant.

Boom is a boom, and when it comes to cycling that's a good thing for everyone, positive externalities and all. Quit naysaying!

IDK about anyone else, but my livelihood is driven by bikes.

More butts on bikes are more better!

...but... To be realistic, people aren't as interested in riding a bike now as they were last spring when they were locked in to their homes.

Booms/fads are just that. If you're in the bike business, I'd plan on it going bust, but be hopeful it doesn't.

M

[jimoots]

Originally Posted by Gummee

IDK about anyone else, but my livelihood is driven by bikes.

More butts on bikes are more better!

...but... To be realistic, people aren't as interested in riding a bike now as they were last spring when they were locked in to their homes.

Booms/fads are just that. If you're in the bike business, I'd plan on it going bust, but be hopeful it doesn't.

M

I guess my point was a different take in that sure in the sense that 2020 was a huge year, 2021 might not be so huge... but there will be a lasting effect from all the people that took it up in 2020. A new - ratched up - baseline, so to speak.

I probably could have just written the above sentence to get my point across, ha

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by Gummee

IDK about anyone else, but my livelihood is driven by bikes.

More butts on bikes are more better!

...but... To be realistic, people aren't as interested in riding a bike now as they were last spring when they were locked in to their homes.

Booms/fads are just that. If you're in the bike business, I'd plan on it going bust, but be hopeful it doesn't.

M

I don't think ANYTHING can said to be concrete, a real trend, a boom or bust on ANYTHING based on 2020. 2020 is unique with a capital 'U' and to make any YUGE decisions based on what is seen in 2020 is foolish, IMHO...

[jc031699]

Another factor may end up being that there is a massive increase of disposable income for a lot of consumers (those not desperately hurt by the economic contraction). Personal savings has increased dramatically for many families since COVID started. That’s one of the purported reasons for the stock market continuing to climb despite there being carnage on the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[2000CSI]

I think, like others have said here, that this boom will end. Like the other bike booms in the '70's, '80's and '90's. Some of the new riders will find they love cycling and continue. But I think most will stop riding or only ride on occasion. That's ok though, people who took up riding as a lifestyle or serious hobby were declining. So hopefully the new people that take up cycling as a serious hobby will allow the industry to grow.
This year and the next year or two will be tough for bike business. I don't think bike sales will be very good, everybody has one already. Those that include cycling in their life, ride often, and can afford it will buy another bike. But they were the same people who were going to anyway even before the pandemic. I hope for a lot of peoples sake that I am wrong and the cycling business is strong.

[peanutgallery]

U4 elite travel soccer...it's coming back. When it does things will revert back to normal with maybe a slight increase in the number of riders etc. Then there will be a glut of all the stuff that was injected into people. 2021 will be not as crazy as 2020, 2022 will be a return to normal

Right now, customers are being lost because of lack of availability of bread and butter parts, accessories and bikes. The real basics are still MIA

[torelli]

I work part time in a bike shop. We were closed for several weeks in the spring but still working in the shop, mostly building bikes bought online. When we finally opened people would call nonstop looking for bikes that weren't available or on back order for months. I get maybe 5 at most of these type of calls now.

Yes I agree that there the bike boom will continue for most of this year but eventually the demand from the casual riders will plateau. That is the vast majority that the bike industry markets to. For every Specialized, Trek, Cannondale casual or hybrid bike out there are 10 Walmart versions out there.

[charliedid]

Originally Posted by peanutgallery

U4 elite travel soccer...it's coming back. When it does things will revert back to normal with maybe a slight increase in the number of riders etc. Then there will be a glut of all the stuff that was injected into people. 2021 will be not as crazy as 2020, 2022 will be a return to normal

Right now, customers are being lost because of lack of availability of bread and butter parts, accessories and bikes. The real basics are still MIA

Really, no soccer is why people were riding bikes more?

Maybe to a degree... but it was an across the board increase in people on bikes for casual recreation in my world.

I'll have to look up U4 elite travel soccer.

Interesting take.

[peanutgallery]

Once the vax is cool...pants optional night at chili's will compete

Folks are riding bikes out of desperation. They'll go back to their old ways right quick

Originally Posted by charliedid

Really, no soccer is why people were riding bikes more?

Maybe to a degree... but it was an across the board increase in people on bikes for casual recreation in my world.

I'll have to look up U4 elite travel soccer.

Interesting take.

[XXtwindad]

Originally Posted by peanutgallery

Once the vax is cool...pants optional night at chili's will compete

Folks are riding bikes out of desperation. They'll go back to their old ways right quick

A really, really private booth. Please.

[peanutgallery]

Disney will be worse

Originally Posted by XXtwindad

A really, really private booth. Please.