Supply Chains & International Bike Business

[DHallerman]

And why prices and unavailability for many components will continue to rise.

A piece in today’s Times: What an Adult Tricycle Says About the World’s Bottleneck Problems

So does this mean my over-buying of bike parts over the years makes sense?

Dave, who notes the Catrike guy in the article says they need to accumulate parts going forward rather than just-in-time manufacturing

[tuxbailey]

Originally Posted by DHallerman

Dave, who notes the Catrike guy in the article says they need to accumulate parts going forward rather than just-in-time manufacturing

Like many in this forum


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[reuben]

Originally Posted by tuxbailey

Like many in this forum

I'm thinkin' that this forum is sitting on a collective gold mine.

[unterhausen]

I'm curious how well JiT works for a small manufacturer like that anyway. Commit to a certain quantity and they ship them to you 5 at a time?

The disadvantage to buying pallets full at a time is if your customers decide they want something else.

I always thought JiT was a recipe for disaster and that warehouse space wasn't really that expensive. But people have been making it work, probably because shipping has gotten faster, better and cheaper. If companies survive this, they'll probably go back to it.

[jemdet]

With the caveat that these aren't "real" problems, per se... It's frustrating that I can't have any confidence that a particular part will be available.

Used prices have gone crazy, as expected.

Thankfully I (like so many of you) have bins full of parts. It's unlikely that one of my bikes goes out of commission because I'm waiting for a part.

[charliedid]

Two years of replacement parts and bikes under $2000 we would never have had a retail supply issue. I'm still pre-selling bikes for future delivery and many models because of component manufacturing don't even have an ETA date right now. That will likely change and shift a bit in the next 2-3 months.

I read that Shimano has invested 1.5B in manufacturing but I only read the headline so no further context as to what that really means. I wish it meant a couple two three factories here.

Great for the consumer but restructuring to look like the 1970's in terms of warehousing and financing to sit on product seems pretty regressive and unlikely.

Selling bikes right now is a challenge to say the least.

[Velocipede]

The biggest issue is shipping. Containers are scarce and ships aren't being unloaded. There are 43 container ships waiting to enter Long Beach Port right now. That's hundreds of hours to unload them. Which then puts them in the X-ray phase for customs. Hundreds of more hours. The supply chain is messed up right now but it's not all manufactures faults.

[reuben]

Originally Posted by Velocipede

The biggest issue is shipping. Containers are scarce and ships aren't being unloaded. There are 43 container ships waiting to enter Long Beach Port right now. That's hundreds of hours to unload them. Which then puts them in the X-ray phase for customs. Hundreds of more hours. The supply chain is messed up right now but it's not all manufactures faults.

Yeah, this. A while ago I ordered some hard to get components (is there any other kind?). They shipped from Taiwan to Singapore, then a long silence, so I assumed they were coming by ship. Loading the containers, and then loading them onto a ship can take time. Then there's the passage across the Pacific, a wait to be unloaded, customs, and more shipping.

When there was a steady stream of items being manufactured and shipped, plus a small buffer of parts here (the U.S.), it wasn't bad. But multiple links in the chain now have issues.

[AustinHorse]

Vietnam's shutdown going to have an impact too. Malaysia (where a lot of Shimano's mass market components are manufactured) only reopened a few weeks ago.

[peanutgallery]

That's only a problem/excuse for big guys that can afford shipping

The little guys have product that will sit in Asia for quite some time if they don't think they can afford shipping. Rough times for like a Jamis or Van Dessel. Even the big companies are adjusting, try getting hands on a sub $1k bike next year. You won't see many. They're not worth the cost to ship from what I hear

2023/2024?

Originally Posted by Velocipede

The biggest issue is shipping. Containers are scarce and ships aren't being unloaded. There are 43 container ships waiting to enter Long Beach Port right now. That's hundreds of hours to unload them. Which then puts them in the X-ray phase for customs. Hundreds of more hours. The supply chain is messed up right now but it's not all manufactures faults.

[hollowgram5]

Originally Posted by Velocipede

The biggest issue is shipping. Containers are scarce and ships aren't being unloaded. There are 43 container ships waiting to enter Long Beach Port right now. That's hundreds of hours to unload them. Which then puts them in the X-ray phase for customs. Hundreds of more hours. The supply chain is messed up right now but it's not all manufactures faults.

To add to this, a number of the companies that owned the large container ships themselves decided to scrap assets to get them off their books last year rather than having them sit idle and depreciating. I watched a super interesting video about it.

The lady works in SC for a major heavy equipment manufacturer, it's a daily battle to strategically plan for future capacities as the world ramps up and wants more of the product they offer.

[Velocipede]

Originally Posted by peanutgallery

That's only a problem/excuse for big guys that can afford shipping

The little guys have product that will sit in Asia for quite some time if they don't think they can afford shipping. Rough times for like a Jamis or Van Dessel. Even the big companies are adjusting, try getting hands on a sub $1k bike next year. You won't see many. They're not worth the cost to ship from what I hear

2023/2024?

It was $2500-4000 to ship a 40 foot container of bikes to the US. Now, it's $40,000. The biggies like Walmart, Amazon, Target and the like are happily paying it cause they can. Shippers are fleecing the companies cause they can. In the end we the consumer get screwed with no lube.

[charliedid]

Originally Posted by Velocipede

The biggest issue is shipping. Containers are scarce and ships aren't being unloaded. There are 43 container ships waiting to enter Long Beach Port right now. That's hundreds of hours to unload them. Which then puts them in the X-ray phase for customs. Hundreds of more hours. The supply chain is messed up right now but it's not all manufactures faults.

Certainly a component that I didn't mention but if we had two years inventory they would have already been shipped

[Hilltopwalters]

Originally Posted by Velocipede

It was $2500-4000 to ship a 40 foot container of bikes to the US. Now, it's $40,000. The biggies like Walmart, Amazon, Target and the like are happily paying it cause they can. Shippers are fleecing the companies cause they can. In the end we the consumer get screwed with no lube.

Is that true?! That's insaaaaane.

[reuben]

Originally Posted by Velocipede

It was $2500-4000 to ship a 40 foot container of bikes to the US. Now, it's $40,000.

Originally Posted by hollowgram5

To add to this, a number of the companies that owned the large container ships themselves decided to scrap assets to get them off their books last year rather than having them sit idle and depreciating. I watched a super interesting video about it.

This has happened with dry bulk shipping (think rice, wheat, cement) in the past as well. A couple of decades ago I owned some stock in a dry bulk carrier, made good money, but then got out when the writing on the wall became graffiti. Container shipping is now in a similar swing, but more violent, due to the rapid spikes and plunges in demand.

And that's just shipping. Other variables such as raw materials, manufacturing, and sufficient and competent employees come into play as well.