OT - Dow plunges 1,175 - worst point decline in history

[Burnette]

As I posted earlier the trade issue was coming to ahead no matter who got to wear the crown, all countries are jockeying for position now and it's weighing all markets downward.

US/China: it's true that China has had a deal that is outrageously in their favor and they take property for good and though we get cheap labor for making iPhones and get to sell Buicks there, the intellectual property loss is offsetting those gains because this last forever.

On a personal note, were I work I have seen the effects of this in loss of projects, jobs and product infringement issues where we have no recourse if something is stolen.

Conversely, by losing China as a manufacturing resource we feel repercussions from that as well because that switches you to other Asian countries and Mexico to fill that void. That's where projects can get rerouted away from the US simply because of logistics. China/US transport is streamlined and budgeted into the cake, move it somewhere else and transport and location becomes a bigger issue and doing everything in fewer places or even one spot is key. We struggle to compete already in the US, the gyrations send planners into a frenzy and quick and hurtful decisions to the US producers become more possible..

Relocation efforts away from China had begun by some manufacturers since 2018 and that's the only real pressure that can be applied to China, the tariffs alone won't do it, they can survive them.

So IMO this trade war will go on and only be moved by attrition through job loss in China, so expect a long ride bumpy ride in the market because of it. And I hope my coworkers and I come out the other side.

[oldpotatoe]

So IMO this trade war will go on and only be moved by attrition through job loss in China, so expect a long ride bumpy ride in the market because of it. And I hope my coworkers and I come out the other side.

Doubt it..with the centralized Chinese government, they can absorb 'job losses' far better than the US..IF the US unemployment rate goes up...stick a fork in trump..if it goes up in China..Xi is premier for life...

Bumpy ride? Undoubtedly...but this trade war does nothing but pad trump's little ego at being a 'tough guy'..he cares not about the US worker, he cares about his base seeing him 'winning' and being a tough guy.

HOW does making imported goods more expensive, then allowing US goods to compete..cuz they are more expensive, help the guy on mainstreet?

And for below..China is a potential market but this tariff->tariff->tariff..tit of tat stuff is making everything more expensive for everybody..

[Burnette]

Originally Posted by oldpotatoe

Doubt it..with the centralized Chinese government, they can absorb 'job losses' far better than the US..IF the US unemployment rate goes up...stick a fork in trump..if it goes up in China..Xi is premier for life...

Bumpy ride? Undoubtedly...but this trade war does nothing but pad trump's little ego at being a 'tough guy'..he cares not about the US worker, he cares about his base seeing him 'winning' and being a tough guy.

HOW does making imported goods more expensive, then allowing US goods to compete..cuz they are more expensive, help the guy on mainstreet?

No doubt that China can wait it out but job loss and GDP are movers there, the problem is for that to take effect it takes a long time to happen, but it's already begun.

As far as the end consumer they are paying more ofcourse for China goods, but we pay and lose in many ways with the current deal as I laid out above and it has to change.

[Big Dan]

Originally Posted by Burnette

No doubt that China can wait it out but job loss and GDP are movers there, the problem is for that to take effect it takes a long time to happen, but it's already begun.

As far as the end consumer they are paying more ofcourse for China goods, but we pay and lose in many ways with the current deal as I laid out above and it has to change.

Why don't you talk of China as a market too?

[Burnette]

Originally Posted by Big Dan

Why don't you talk of China as a market too?

The thread is about the Dow and we discuss it and it's effects on us but if you want me to address a China and it's situation I can. What would you like to know?

[OtayBW]

'Trade War'. Haha. There is no policy. There is no strategy. It's all just just willy-nilly to satisfy base and ego. Might as well be throwing darts.

[joosttx]

Originally Posted by Burnette

Relocation efforts away from China had begun by some manufacturers since 2018 and that's the only real pressure that can be applied to China

As early 2014 for the planning to shift for some major industries.

[Burnette]

Originally Posted by joosttx

As early 2014 for the planning to shift for some major industries.

The biggets pressure to move has been more recent and consequences for doing so can be severe. It wasn't that bad until 2017 and at that point it was clear that something had to give.

The problem for the truly big companies making and selling in China like Apple and General Motors is that they are so intertwined in that market from beginning to end that pulling isn't even an option short term. It's not that easy and loss of low cost manufacturing is compounded by loss of Chinas consumers, which is a source of income that continues to grow.

For the company I work for it's not as hard to pull out but the ramifications from it could still mean peril for my place in the chain.

There's an article about a "smart furniture" maker that saw this coming in 2017 and began moving parts of manufacture out if China to Thailand. China pushed back and still holds the big pieces of the part and bringing Thailand up to competency has been hard, so hard that finalization of the process wont happen until October 2019. And the manufacturer admits there will be problems when they go live.

That's another thing that China has going, they can tool up and staff fast for almost anything you want and hit deadlines. They've come along way and they are good at it.

[joosttx]

Originally Posted by Burnette

The biggets pressure to move has been more recent and consequences for doing so can be severe. It wasn't that bad until 2017 and at that point it was clear that something had to give.

The problem for the truly big companies making and selling in China like Apple and General Motors is that they are so intertwined in that market from beginning to end that pulling isn't even an option short term. It's not that easy and loss of low cost manufacturing is compounded by loss of Chinas consumers, which is a source of income that continues to grow.
.

There were no cheaper opportunities that were as good until recently (which isn’t entirely true). This all about raw materials. US is giving other countries the opportunity to make the grab and complicate things for China.... and a few other things

[Burnette]

Originally Posted by joosttx

There were no cheaper opportunities that were as good until recently (which isn’t entirely true). This all about raw materials. US is giving other countries the opportunity to make the grab and complicate things for China.... and a few other things

Most still aren't as good as China unfortunately and the real hope is that China relents in all of this. Other countries present some of the same barriers as China and nowhere near the capability and capacity.

[Davist]

Originally Posted by OtayBW

'Trade War'. Haha. There is no policy. There is no strategy. It's all just just willy-nilly to satisfy base and ego. Might as well be throwing darts.

Ignoring the problem for 50 years certainly wasn't a good strategy, that's for sure. It will be bumpy for sure, but my business has been impacted by IP theft since I've been in it, and even been sued due to counterfeit products showing up at "our" suppliers (who tried to make a fast buck). We've moved "some" production elsewhere in Southeast Asia, but unlike cut and sew (Nike et al) the industrial production can't spin up quickly, I'm of the same mind as Burnette...

[Burnette]

Originally Posted by Davist

Ignoring the problem for 50 years certainly wasn't a good strategy, that's for sure. It will be bumpy for sure, but my business has been impacted by IP theft since I've been in it, and even been sued due to counterfeit products showing up at "our" suppliers (who tried to make a fast buck). We've moved "some" production elsewhere in Southeast Asia, but unlike cut and sew (Nike et al) the industrial production can't spin up quickly, I'm of the same mind as Burnette...

I understand that some take umbrage will the current crown holder but I agree, we've been taking a beating from China for decades now and something had to give. I've survived eight layoffs and watched way too many coworkers walked to the door over my years. It was a bad deal.

IMO some may not be aware of what Intellectual property theft is/does. Once you set up over there and and do all the R&D and absorb development cost China just takes that and duplicates it and in there system you have no recourse against it. And the thing about IP theft is that the blow is devastating and long lasting.

The company I work for is developing something now, millions invested and we have a hard deadline. High tech and we have to get it to work. If we fail I might not make it through the next staff reduction. We are also being squeezed on budget know too.

Imagine we get it working, send it to China and they duplicate it. We're already losing the labor jobs, getting robbed of everything we worked for to boot is too much.

As I posted earlier, I get the reservations people have about the leaders but it was coming to a head no matter who got it. It has to be addressed.

[Vientomas]

Originally Posted by Burnette

I understand that some take umbrage will the current crown holder but I agree, we've been taking a beating from China for decades now and something had to give. I've survived eight layoffs and watched way too many coworkers walked to the door over my years. It was a bad deal.

IMO some may not be aware of what Intellectual property theft is/does. Once you set up over there and and do all the R&D and absorb development cost China just takes that and duplicates it and in there system you have no recourse against it. And the thing about IP theft is that the blow is devastating and long lasting.

The company I work for is developing something now, millions invested and we have a hard deadline. High tech and we have to get it to work. If we fail I might not make it through the next staff reduction. We are also being squeezed on budget know too.

Imagine we get it working, send it to China and they duplicate it. We're already losing the labor jobs, getting robbed of everything we worked for to boot is too much.

As I posted earlier, I get the reservations people have about the leaders but it was coming to a head no matter who got it. It has to be addressed.

OK, but are tariffs the answer to the problem?

"While business groups agree with the Trump administration’s diagnosis of the problem, they don’t believe that placing tariffs on Chinese imports is the right prescription.

The tariffs-only approach “does not create meaningful solutions and policy change in China to fully address the problems,” said Ryan Ong, director of international business policy at the National Association of Manufacturers.

Tariffs are counterproductive because they end up harming businesses, farmers, other workers and the economy in general, said Waterman of the Chamber of Commerce.

“We are doing more harm to ourselves than we are actually addressing the problem of coerced technology transfer,” he said."

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ts/2124428002/

[Burnette]

Originally Posted by Vientomas

OK, but are tariffs the answer to the problem?

"While business groups agree with the Trump administration’s diagnosis of the problem, they don’t believe that placing tariffs on Chinese imports is the right prescription.

The tariffs-only approach “does not create meaningful solutions and policy change in China to fully address the problems,” said Ryan Ong, director of international business policy at the National Association of Manufacturers.

Tariffs are counterproductive because they end up harming businesses, farmers, other workers and the economy in general, said Waterman of the Chamber of Commerce.

“We are doing more harm to ourselves than we are actually addressing the problem of coerced technology transfer,” he said."

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ts/2124428002/

Answering that is akin to claiming I have the answer to solving the Middle East conflict. I don't.

And I too would prefer a much more deft hand at the wheel as I posted earlier but we play the game with the hand we're dealt.

[OtayBW]

Originally Posted by Burnette

Answering that is akin to claiming I have the answer to solving the Middle East conflict. I don't.

And I too would prefer a much more deft hand at the wheel as I posted earlier but we play the game with the hand we're dealt.

Which brings me back to my metaphor about throwing darts....