OT: Ray, how's your Bitcoin investment going?

[cash05458]

Originally Posted by redir

If Ray bought in 2013 and still holds then Ray is a happy guy. It's all about holding on for the ride. As cyclists we know that risk is something we do every day when we commute to work by bike. You should probably choose not to commute if there is an ice storm in the forecast but if the last couple days have been nice then off you go.

Interestingly, BTC is very volatile, but when you zoom out it really does follow the S and P and the markets in general. It will probably be even more so now that there are BTC EFT's.

that is great...no worries...but you have an entire thread here mentioning one guy...everyone chips in...big laugh...fine...it goes up and everyone now gets touchy about this...come on...this place is fine as long as everyone goes along with the crowd pretty much, even on beatings via one person and thier ideas...so pointing out where the actual thread representative you make jokes about is doing pretty well...well, ok. note to mods: is there any other ongoing thread that mentions one single person here? Thought we were all PC on these things ...or did I get that wrong?

[redir]

Originally Posted by cash05458

that is great...no worries...but you have an entire thread here mentioning one guy...everyone chips in...big laugh...fine...it goes up and everyone now gets touchy about this...come on...this place is fine as long as everyone goes along with the crowd pretty much, even on beatings via one person and thier ideas...so pointing out where the actual thread representative you make jokes about is doing pretty well...well, ok. note to mods: is there any other ongoing thread that mentions one single person here? Thought we were all PC on these things ...or did I get that wrong?

Sorry but I have no idea what you are getting at. But please don't get this thread closed down.

[cash05458]

Originally Posted by redir

Sorry but I have no idea what you are getting at. But please don't get this thread closed down.

Ray was a guy we all knew here years ago ok...got tossed out of the herd...the namesake of this whole thread ...made a **** load of money etc...adn you guys keep it up etc...so? Still does some very fine handle bar wrap if you ask nice...

[redir]

Originally Posted by cash05458

Ray was a guy we all knew here years ago ok...got tossed out of the herd...the namesake of this whole thread ...made a **** load of money etc...adn you guys keep it up etc...so? Still does some very fine handle bar wrap if you ask nice...

You guys?

You mean me?

I've been here longer that you have and have seen people tossed for various reasons. But Okay now... I see your point. Suffice to say I'm happy for those who saw the future of BTC long before I did... So many amazing stories there. Lets let the original person evolved in this live his happy days, meanwhile it's really about BTC.

[rounder]

The FRN guy?

[wc1934]

Guess this is relevant - if not please delete.

Below is a link to utube - The Connect (Johnny Mitchell) interviewing a guy named Ray Trapani (not HBRay). Apparently Netflix made a doc (Bitconned) about his scam.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aD1dEKPFJjU

[mstateglfr]

I opened a Fidelity crypto account in April '23 to stash some money that was left over from a previous employer's stock incentive program.
It's 11 months later and the account is currently worth over 150% of my initial investment.

It's absolutely bonkers and surreal. The initial amount wasn't a ton and even with the absurd growth, the current value isn't a ton.
But my gosh the increase is crazy to see!


I don't regret limiting the account's initial amount. I tossed the money into a crypto account to just see what would happen and view it as monopoly money.
I still don't understand why people view any of it as valuable, and will continue to limit my exposure until I see why it is valued.
But in the meantime, it's been funny to see the line go up up up.

[Ozz]

Originally Posted by cash05458

Ray was a guy we all knew here years ago ok...got tossed out of the herd...the namesake of this whole thread ...made a **** load of money etc...adn you guys keep it up etc...so? Still does some very fine handle bar wrap if you ask nice...

Ray got "tossed"??? I thought he just decided he had better things to do....
Some of his thoughts/opinions weren't mainstream, but he seemed like a good guy so who cares? I always thought the thread title was good-natured ribbing...
I hope he is doing well....

[laupsi]

Originally Posted by mstateglfr

I opened a Fidelity crypto account in April '23 to stash some money that was left over from a previous employer's stock incentive program.
It's 11 months later and the account is currently worth over 150% of my initial investment.

It's absolutely bonkers and surreal. The initial amount wasn't a ton and even with the absurd growth, the current value isn't a ton.
But my gosh the increase is crazy to see!


I don't regret limiting the account's initial amount. I tossed the money into a crypto account to just see what would happen and view it as monopoly money.
I still don't understand why people view any of it as valuable, and will continue to limit my exposure until I see why it is valued.
But in the meantime, it's been funny to see the line go up up up.

Take profits and run!

[Louis]

Originally Posted by laupsi

Take profits and run!

But people were saying the same thing in Dec 2017...

(when it hit a then all-time-high of just under $20k)

[redir]

Originally Posted by Louis

But people were saying the same thing in Dec 2017...

(when it hit a then all-time-high of just under $20k)

Yup, just look at the chart I posted a page or two ago. It basically tracks the stock market, though on any given day of course, it can lose or gain a huge amount because it is very volatile in the short term. But when you zoom out you see long cycles of higher lows and higher highs. It's the volatility and risk that makes the biggest gains... and losses of course. But again, if you hold on to the next cycle, don't freak out, and buy when it's back below it's average value then, so far anyway, it's proven to be a good bet.

A bit further, there's always been FUD about what governments might do and while that has happened it's also become more mainstream too. Most investors won't touch it.... Yet. But when they do?

[verticaldoug]

Originally Posted by redir

A bit further, there's always been FUD about what governments might do and while that has happened it's also become more mainstream too. Most investors won't touch it.... Yet. But when they do?

With the listing of the ETFs , you have removed most obstacles to individuals. You have lower fees, you farm out the holding risk to a big guy like Fidelity or Blackrock for 12 bps / annum. Even when you strip out the transfer of funds from GBTC (high fees) to lower fee ETFs like IBIT, FBTC, you are seeing a healthy inflow of cash into the asset. The amount of cash available in the US financial markets just dwarfs bitcoin. If FOMO ever kicks in, watch out. The converse is also true - reverse FOMO when someone yells fire.

But now for the first time, the big asset managers are seated at the bitcoin punchbowl. And Larry Fink wants you to drink..... have a pint. He pretends he doesn't want you to drink too much, but we all know all that ended with his last crusade - ESG.

[redir]

Originally Posted by verticaldoug

With the listing of the ETFs , you have removed most obstacles to individuals. You have lower fees, you farm out the holding risk to a big guy like Fidelity or Blackrock for 12 bps / annum. Even when you strip out the transfer of funds from GBTC (high fees) to lower fee ETFs like IBIT, FBTC, you are seeing a healthy inflow of cash into the asset. The amount of cash available in the US financial markets just dwarfs bitcoin. If FOMO ever kicks in, watch out. The converse is also true - reverse FOMO when someone yells fire.

But now for the first time, the big asset managers are seated at the bitcoin punchbowl. And Larry Fink wants you to drink..... have a pint. He pretends he doesn't want you to drink too much, but we all know all that ended with his last crusade - ESG.

Yup. My plan in this cycle was to sell once BTC hit it's ATH, maybe a bit after that. But all this good news changed my plan. It actually made it more difficult but I'll hold out a bit longer. My last purchases were in March and those are almost 4x. Might cash out when it hits that then wait till the next cycle.

[verticaldoug]

I took the entire thread, dropped it in chatGPT, and essentially asked 'In retrospect, how should we have thought about bitcoin?' (the prompt was a little bit more elaborate, but that's the nutshell.) We have 140,000 words and 11 years of discussions. The fact I did this probably means we are due for a crash, but hey, what do I know. Right, Ray?

Retrospective Analysis: Ideal Focus vs. Actual Forum Discussions on Bitcoin

April 2013
**Price**: ~$13 (January 2013) to ~$150 (April 2013)

**Ideal Focus**:
- **Understanding the Technology**: Focus on Bitcoin’s underlying technology, including blockchain, cryptographic security, and decentralized networks.
- **Long-Term Potential**: Explore long-term potential as a decentralized currency and its use cases beyond speculation.

**Actual Discussions**:
- **Curiosity and Missed Opportunities**: Participants expressed interest and regret for not investing earlier.
- **Confusion and Skepticism**: Users were confused about Bitcoin's purpose and functionality, influenced by poor representation in interviews.
- **Security and Legitimacy**: Concerns about the security of Bitcoin and its exchanges, with comparisons to other fiat currencies.

December 2013
**Price**: ~$150 (April 2013) to ~$1,000 (December 2013)

**Ideal Focus**:
- **Volatility Management**: Understanding the causes of Bitcoin's volatility and risk management strategies.
- **Regulatory Landscape**: Early discussions about potential regulatory responses and the importance of compliance.

**Actual Discussions**:
- **Rapid Price Increase**: Excitement over Bitcoin's price surge and significant profit potential.
- **Volatility and Speculation**: Concerns about volatility and comparisons to speculative bubbles.
- **High-Profile Purchases**: Notable purchases like a Tesla S with Bitcoin, highlighting growing acceptance.

January 2014
**Price**: ~$1,000 (December 2013) to ~$750 (January 2014)

**Ideal Focus**:
- **Security Best Practices**: Focus on best practices for securing Bitcoin holdings and understanding exchange risks.
- **Regulatory Preparedness**: Understanding and preparing for regulatory scrutiny.

**Actual Discussions**:
- **Money Laundering and Illegal Activities**: Concerns about Bitcoin's use in money laundering and illegal activities.
- **Regulatory Scrutiny**: Discussions about potential government regulations.
- **Skepticism and Future Potential**: Skepticism about Bitcoin’s long-term viability and its potential as a mainstream transaction method.

2015-2016
**Price**: ~$320 (January 2015) to ~$960 (December 2016)

**Ideal Focus**:
- **Technological Advancements**: Emphasis on technological improvements like the Lightning Network to enhance scalability and transaction speed.
- **Institutional Adoption**: Understanding the implications of growing institutional interest for Bitcoin’s legitimacy and stability.

**Actual Discussions**:
- **Volatility and Stability**: Ongoing discussions about Bitcoin's price volatility and market stabilization efforts.
- **Institutional Interest**: Recognition of increasing institutional interest, adding credibility to Bitcoin.
- **Security and Technological Improvements**: Balancing security concerns with discussions on technological improvements.

2017
**Price**: ~$960 (January 2017) to ~$13,880 (December 2017)

**Ideal Focus**:
- **Bubble Identification**: Developing criteria to identify speculative bubbles and manage investment strategies.
- **Environmental Concerns**: Addressing the environmental impact of Bitcoin mining early and exploring sustainable practices.

**Actual Discussions**:
- **Speculative Mania**: Widespread media coverage and public interest due to the dramatic price increase.
- **Bubble Concerns**: Concerns about a speculative bubble and potential market crash.
- **Mining and Environmental Impact**: Discussions on the environmental impact of Bitcoin mining.

2018
**Price**: ~$13,880 (January 2018) to ~$3,740 (December 2018)

**Ideal Focus**:
- **Market Correction Analysis**: Analyzing causes and effects of market corrections for future trend predictions.
- **Long-Term Viability**: Focus on Bitcoin’s long-term viability and utility rather than short-term price movements.

**Actual Discussions**:
- **Market Correction**: Discussions about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s high valuations following significant price corrections.
- **Stabilization Efforts**: Efforts to stabilize the market and improve exchange legitimacy.
- **Security Concerns**: Continued concerns about exchange security and risks of hacking and fraud.

2019
**Price**: ~$3,740 (January 2019) to ~$7,240 (December 2019)

**Ideal Focus**:
- **Institutional Impact**: Exploring the impact of institutional adoption on market dynamics and price stability.
- **Technological Integration**: Discussing how advancements like the Lightning Network could enhance Bitcoin’s utility.

**Actual Discussions**:
- **Institutional Adoption**: Focus on increasing institutional adoption and its impact on Bitcoin’s credibility.
- **Technological Developments**: Technological advancements aimed at improving transaction speeds and reducing costs.

2020
**Price**: ~$7,240 (January 2020) to ~$29,000 (December 2020)

**Ideal Focus**:
- **Pandemic Response**: Understanding Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against economic instability during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- **Adoption Strategies**: Identifying strategies for broader corporate and financial institution adoption.

**Actual Discussions**:
- **Pandemic Impact**: Increased interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against economic instability.
- **Institutional and Corporate Adoption**: Major financial institutions and corporations adopting Bitcoin, driving up demand and credibility.

2021
**Price**: ~$29,000 (January 2021) to ~$47,000 (December 2021)

**Ideal Focus**:
- **Sustainable Growth**: Ensuring sustainable growth and avoiding hype-driven price surges.
- **Regulatory Compliance**: Preparing for increased regulatory scrutiny by understanding global trends.

**Actual Discussions**:
- **Mainstream Acceptance**: Bitcoin reaching new highs, driven by celebrity endorsements and major corporate investments.
- **Regulatory Scrutiny**: Increased regulatory scrutiny concerned about financial stability and illicit activities.

2022
**Price**: ~$47,000 (January 2022) to ~$16,000 (December 2022)

**Ideal Focus**:
- **Market Resilience**: Building market resilience against downturns and understanding macroeconomic influences.
- **Mainstream Adoption Challenges**: Identifying challenges of mainstream adoption and developing solutions for accessibility and usability.

**Actual Discussions**:
- **Market Downturn**: Significant downturn correlating with broader market declines and recession concerns.
- **Continued Volatility**: Discussions about Bitcoin’s volatility and its impact on mainstream adoption.

2023
**Price**: ~$16,000 (January 2023) to ~$30,000 (May 2023)

**Ideal Focus**:
- **Environmental Sustainability**: Addressing the environmental impact of Bitcoin mining and exploring sustainable alternatives.
- **Regulatory Adaptation**: Adapting to regulatory challenges while promoting innovation.

**Actual Discussions**:
- **Renewed Optimism**: Optimism as Bitcoin’s price begins to recover with continued institutional interest.
- **Environmental and Regulatory Challenges**: Persistent concerns about environmental impact and regulatory challenges, particularly regarding energy consumption and compliance issues.

Summary of Key Focus Areas:
- **Education on Technology and Security**: Comprehensive understanding of blockchain, cryptographic security, and best practices for safeguarding investments.
- **Regulatory Awareness**: Proactive engagement with regulatory developments and compliance requirements.
- **Environmental Impact**: Early and sustained focus on mitigating the environmental impact of Bitcoin mining.
- **Long-Term Viability and Adoption**: Emphasis on the long-term potential and practical use cases of Bitcoin, beyond speculative investment.
- **Institutional Integration**: Understanding and leveraging institutional adoption to stabilize and legitimize Bitcoin.
- **Market Analysis and Resilience**: Developing tools and strategies for identifying speculative bubbles and building resilience against market downturns.

By comparing the ideal focus areas with the actual discussions, it’s clear that while the forum participants touched on many critical aspects of Bitcoin’s evolution, a more structured and forward-looking approach could have provided deeper insights and better preparation for the challenges and opportunities Bitcoin presented.