OT-ish Peloton temporarily halts production of bikes, treadmills

[AngryScientist]

I think the reality is that the pandemic is largely over and people are leaving their homes again regularly. Most of the people who had $$$ to spend on home gym equipment have already done so, so the potential market is drying up - could it just be that simple across the board?

[benb]

Laying off your dev team is a real bad sign.

It's a short term move to get max short term return on a sale for a smaller group of investors/executives.

Been there and done that! We all got laid off so the business could be sold at a lower price with less loose ends for the acquiring company to deal with. Then the most senior engineers got hired back as consultants for a while cause the acquiring company couldn't put the pieces together again.

I've had a relatively sophisticated Tacx trainer for almost 20 years.. no computer hookup but I've been there and done that long enough to be skeptical of the video games and monthly fees. I think it was only a matter of time before this market cooled off. Dedicated Cyclists are outdoor people. The video game portions of all this is really cool, but eventually riding indoors gets old for most of us. They got a temporary bump from non-cyclist exercise junkies who tend to move from fad to fad, then they got a pandemic bump. It's not surprising at all that none of this can be maintained. No matter how well they ever executed (and it doesn't sound like they did that well) it was not going to compete with going back outside for the cyclists and moving on to the next big exercise craze for the non-cyclists.

If I go back to the height of this craze (2017-2018?) there were no less than 4 boutique spin studios within 1/2 mile of my office + a crossfit box. The one in my office park was $240/month for an unlimited pass! ALL of them have gone out of business now, and it wasn't just the pandemic. Most of them were already gone by the time the pandemic started.

I do wonder how much it hurts them that instructors turned into instagram stars.. I really wonder if some of them are commanding 10-100x the pay they would have before this all became a craze. Spin 10-15 years ago was something at the gym that you didn't pay anything extra for and was run by a volunteer or someone paid a low hourly wage. The content of the exercise was pretty much exactly the same.

[rccardr]

Originally Posted by AngryScientist

I think the reality is that the pandemic is largely over and people are leaving their homes again regularly. Most of the people who had $$$ to spend on home gym equipment have already done so, so the potential market is drying up - could it just be that simple across the board?

I think so. No question that cyclists generally prefer to ride outdoors- it feeds the soul. But during periods of bad weather they also try to keep in form, hence the indoor trainer. IMO and based on years of experience attending thrice-weekly classes before investing in a complete TACX Neo2T system several years ago, spin class is mostly for non-cyclists who are trying to keep in shape/lose weight.

So, yeah, the market is only so big but was boosted during the pando by users who were not going to go to the gym. Now they're going back. Any business leader who thought the meteoric rise in demand for home gym equipment was anything but short lived is a poor business person indeed.

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by AngryScientist

I think the reality is that the pandemic is largely over and people are leaving their homes again regularly. Most of the people who had $$$ to spend on home gym equipment have already done so, so the potential market is drying up - could it just be that simple across the board?

I think so too but is the pandemic 'over'? Don't know..Is the Pandemic 'endemic' now? Most are acting like it's over but friend of mine just started living in his basement because he popped positive...another ended up in the hospital...so...still need to be careful, IMHO...

[benb]

The Pandemic isn't over here... close to 10% of the kids in my son's school were out with Covid last week.

We are trying to figure out how to field a little league team tonight with 1/3 of the team sick with Covid. The other team we're playing tonight the Coach is out with Covid so we're going to have to try and split up volunteers from our team to make the game work.

But none of that helps Peloton or Zwift or anyone from my perspective cause we all know cycling outside is extremely low risk for getting Covid at this point and the weather is finally getting nice!

[Ewiser]

The whole cycling boom is busting too.
Once people start returning to a normal life. They will stop riding bikes and exercising. The % of people riding bikes is quite small in the US especially for sport.
Many average people buy a bike maybe ride it once a week and slowly push it into a corner of the garage.
The roads today are full of drivers in their cars on cell phones not paying attention to the road. You see it everyday. Why people are trying”gravel” trying to find a place to ride safely.

[Jeffrobots]

Saying the cycling boom is ending makes it seem like people are going to hang up their bikes entirely. In my experience, folks who got into cycling in the past two years aren’t really going away if they’re still around after a single season. Sure, loads of people got gear a couple years ago and only hung around for the summer of 2020, but I think the sport is stickier than we give it credit for, and the people who were going to hang up their gear probably already did it last year.

I don’t know anyone at all who got a bike, rode for a season, and has since replaced their bike with a gym membership now that that’s an option.

But I do agree in the sense that the rate of growth won’t be so high without any forcing function.


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[Ewiser]

I guess I have been in cycling too long
Lived next to a bike shop as a kid and have been cycling for 60 years. In the US it has always been a cyclical business.

[buddybikes]

Originally Posted by Ewiser

I guess I have been in cycling too long
Lived next to a bike shop as a kid and have been cycling for 60 years. In the US it has always been a cyclical business.

I will slightly challenge this. Gas is souring, people are commuting, e-bikes are filling a void...of course class 3 e-bikes are pushing the edge of "cycling"

[unterhausen]

My wife just got an ebike so we have been riding a lot of bike paths. Haven't seen any other ebikes. There is one kid that has a gas motor on his bike that we have seen a couple of times. The problem around here is that there are a few disconnected bike paths that just stop. We are going to have to go further afield once we get more comfortable riding on the road. There have been proposals to build some paths that connect towns or go further out into the country, but the country folk think we are going to go out and steal their broken down Saturn S series and tow it back to State College behind our bikes.

[tuxbailey]

Originally Posted by Ewiser

The whole cycling boom is busting too.
Once people start returning to a normal life. They will stop riding bikes and exercising. The % of people riding bikes is quite small in the US especially for sport.
Many average people buy a bike maybe ride it once a week and slowly push it into a corner of the garage.
The roads today are full of drivers in their cars on cell phones not paying attention to the road. You see it everyday. Why people are trying”gravel” trying to find a place to ride safely.

I do think the boom on used market is stabilizing. I see the used price for "average" bike is slowly coming back down to pre-pandemic level. Nothing scientific just some FB marketplace sightings.

[fiamme red]

More bad news for Peloton:

https://thehill.com/news/house/34936...ter-criticism/

House staff members will not get Peloton fitness membership perks after all.

The chief administrative officer of the House is backing out of a planned deal with Peloton to provide staff and Capitol Police officers with Peloton All-Access and Peloton app memberships through its Center for Well-Being.

“It’s not happening,” Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), who spearheaded creation of the center in 2018, told The Hill when asked about the planned Peloton benefit...

[Jeffrobots]

Originally Posted by fiamme red

More bad news for Peloton:

https://thehill.com/news/house/34936...ter-criticism/

It’s kinda wild that they were doing that to begin with. But I guess it shows that they’re pulling back on the discretionary funding.


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[cash05458]

Can only add something I bet folks have seen a good bit...was dating a female for last 5 months...she had a peloton...had all the peloton weights right by it...the shoes...all the stuff they sold to her for inspiration etc..even after ride mixes in kitchen with her name printed on each packet...pretty slick really...I know she kept up the monthly subscription as well...it all looked fairly impressive really...nice furniture in her nice apartment..and no, it never got used once during that time...

As an aside, while working for fedex I was delivering tons and tons of new ebikes...and I mean a lot of them...my guess is some will be used maybe...but the majority will end up parked in the garage after a few rides like most of this stuff...

[oldpotatoe]

I will slightly challenge this. Gas is soaring, people are commuting, e-bikes are filling a void...of course class 3 e-bikes are pushing the edge of "cycling"

Originally Posted by cash05458

As an aside, while working for fedex I was delivering tons and tons of new ebikes...and I mean a lot of them...my guess is some will be used maybe...but the majority will end up parked in the garage after a few rides like most of this stuff...

Gas prices are cyclical and will come down. No shortage of people driving their(LOTSA BFTrucks) at 75MPH++ around here, with gas at $4.10 or so(higher elsewhere).
People ARE going to work more but not on e-bikes, in their cars and trucks. And anything we see these days(May, end of spring, start of summer) will be effected more than a little first snow...

This from last week around LA..nice, warm sunny day.