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  #676  
Old 05-25-2021, 01:01 PM
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MattTuck MattTuck is offline
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Originally Posted by verticaldoug View Post
True, but if I own my house outright, the value went up on paper because of prices increases driven by people borrowing money who had no chance to repay. When they went bust, the value of my house went down. I was able to live in my house so still had some utility, I fail to see any utility in crypto.

...

I actually think the unregulated nature of crypto is a step backward into the era of robber barons.
With regard to the bold section, really? You're a smart person, and you can't see ANY utility? Not saying that you have utility yourself, I mean, I don't have any utility for a tree stand for deer hunting (since I don't hunt), but I can appreciate the utility that a hunter would get from it, and understand why they might be willing to trade their dollars for one.

Look at the people of Venezuela, lives destroyed and economy ruined by inflation of their money. Bitcoin provided an alternative to use in their commerce. Their new currency is backed by bitcoin. Granted, the governance there is not the best, but it is a real country that is tying its currency to bitcoin. Many use it to transfer money internationally because the fees are less than the usury charges of big money transfer companies. Will the competition lead to lower fees, maybe... I mean, how much should it cost to send a few hundred bucks to a relative in a developing country?

I won't try to convince you further, but if you truly can't see that there is some utility to people (even if you're talking edge cases, tail risk kind of situation), then I'm not sure we're in the same ball park.

On your point about tether/stable coins/leverage, I agree that those could be a real issue -- not of the bitcoin system, but of the ecosystem around it, which could introduce pressures on the price. Certainly, there is a lot of speculation driven by liquidity in our financial system. We may not know how big a role they played for weeks, months, or years. Your housing analogy is apt, leverage and liquidity in the system (and in particular abandoning good lending standards) drove up prices across the board. I am definitely not advocating that anyone borrow money to buy bitcoin. If that is happening, it surely has an effect on prices, and if they have to liquidate, that could drive prices down. I hope whoever is lending money against bitcoin is charging an appropriate interest rate.

Not sure how a decentralized global network is a step toward robber barons. The initial aim of bitcoin was to avoid centralization of power and control, and built on the premise that bad actors might try to compromise the ledger.
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  #677  
Old 05-25-2021, 06:05 PM
cnighbor1 cnighbor1 is offline
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What i am saying is gamble high more than once and you will lose big time

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So what you're saying is....

You got to know when to hold 'em. Know when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away. Know when to run?
Charles
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  #678  
Old 05-27-2021, 02:55 PM
verticaldoug verticaldoug is offline
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin...ts_pos1&page=1

Lael Brainard said alot of this in an interviewed/prepared remarks earlier this week.

I don't have an issue with the ledger. It is all the abuse I see around the ledgers from stablecoins/ lack of kyc etc.
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  #679  
Old 05-28-2021, 09:27 AM
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redir redir is offline
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I've decided to back out of Bitcoin all together now for a few reasons. One is I am concerned about it's energy consumption and two it's not as profitable as it used to be and three just way too unstable. So what I do now is embrace the instability of the entire crypto market and I've noticed a few things over the last couple dips and crashes.

Bitcoin is king. Even the so called stable coins follow it. But the alt coins lag and they rebound almost on the exact percent. So when you see Bitcoin crash it's a blessing, as long as you are not holding it (and if you are just keep holding on). Then what you do is watch the alt coins. Watch them follow Bitcoin a day or two late. Then when it looks like Bitcoin is going to rise buy Alts.

An alt coin that is at .20 cents goes up to .40 in a couple days and guess what? You just doubled. I kid you not. I made $20k in literally 3 days last weak because of this. That's a nice bike! And just think of how much money some of the big players make doing this.

Someone mentioned stable coins like Tether are useless.. They are not. Buy in the dip and as soon as you want out you transfer into Tether and wait for the next dip or crash. Because Tether will always be a dollar.

It's risky and no one should ever do this if they can't afford it. And I mean if you want to start then basically start with a chunk of money that you absolutely do not need. Like you would be willing to give it to the next person that walks by and say have a nice day. Because you are going to lose and you are going to win and losing is terrible if you need the money. But you can start in low and climb the ladder too. Start in with a certain amount then if you double take that certain amount back out and now you have 'free' play money. It's kind of like gambling in this way and honestly it's pretty fun to do.
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  #680  
Old 05-28-2021, 10:49 AM
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MattTuck MattTuck is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by verticaldoug View Post
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin...ts_pos1&page=1

Lael Brainard said alot of this in an interviewed/prepared remarks earlier this week.

I don't have an issue with the ledger. It is all the abuse I see around the ledgers from stablecoins/ lack of kyc etc.
Thanks for posting that. And I know this isn't anything new for you... but the underlying issue with money/banks is trust. Even the word credit has origins in the italian for "trust" or "believe".

Bitcoin was largely guided by the idea that cryptographic technology and the blockchain allowed you to trust the system, even if you didn't trust any individual on it.

The stable coins are interesting because they are a return to placing trust in the issuing authority/entity and/or counterparty. As you rightly point out, that has not turned out well in the past. If a stable coin says it is 100% backed by something, and that turns out to be not true, that is an issue of trust.
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  #681  
Old 05-28-2021, 11:21 AM
verticaldoug verticaldoug is offline
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Originally Posted by MattTuck View Post
Thanks for posting that. And I know this isn't anything new for you... but the underlying issue with money/banks is trust. Even the word credit has origins in the italian for "trust" or "believe".

Bitcoin was largely guided by the idea that cryptographic technology and the blockchain allowed you to trust the system, even if you didn't trust any individual on it.

The stable coins are interesting because they are a return to placing trust in the issuing authority/entity and/or counterparty. As you rightly point out, that has not turned out well in the past. If a stable coin says it is 100% backed by something, and that turns out to be not true, that is an issue of trust.
I think you finally understand my point. There is nothing new under the sun when it comes to finance. As they say in the book- speculation is as old as the hills.

The ledger is solid, but that by itself is essentially worthless. It is all the I/O into the ledger where the problems start. You can go all the way back to Mt Gox.

I just think from a finance point of view Tether does not make any sense since they are unable to provide an audit and their 'attestation' shows they never receive dollars. Tether is not backed 1-1 by USD, probably not even close.

The other golden rule from the markets is not to fight the fed. You now have the FED expressing concern about Crypto. Cathie Woods is trying to tell us Crypto is too big for the FED to stop.. Don't believe her.
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  #682  
Old 06-22-2021, 10:03 AM
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redir redir is offline
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Under 30K for the first time in a while. What a wild ride. I think I might buy in at 25 if it makes it that far and of course hold on to the alts till the next bubble
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  #683  
Old 07-19-2021, 11:07 AM
verticaldoug verticaldoug is offline
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Here comes bank regulation for the stablecoins.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3888752

Link to fed paper.

We talked about some this in post 675
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  #684  
Old 07-20-2021, 06:58 AM
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Tony T Tony T is offline
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Under 30K for the first time in a while. What a wild ride. I think I might buy in at 25 if it makes it that far and of course hold on to the alts till the next bubble
Back again under 30
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  #685  
Old 07-20-2021, 07:12 AM
peanutgallery peanutgallery is offline
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Gotta admit, I like this concept

https://nypost.com/2021/07/19/malays...h-steamroller/
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  #686  
Old 07-20-2021, 09:13 AM
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Back again under 30
This is a good article about this bear market. Basically hold on tight folks and don't get too emotional.

https://cryptowhale.medium.com/how-t...e-4cc093b73a4e
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  #687  
Old 07-20-2021, 09:17 AM
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joosttx joosttx is offline
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That’s definitely a more efficient way to destroy wealth than owning a bike shop.
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  #688  
Old 07-20-2021, 09:48 AM
crappygator crappygator is offline
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Originally Posted by redir View Post
This is a good article about this bear market. Basically hold on tight folks and don't get too emotional.

https://cryptowhale.medium.com/how-t...e-4cc093b73a4e
Pretty good article. Thanks
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  #689  
Old 07-20-2021, 10:01 AM
peanutgallery peanutgallery is offline
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You'll only operate at only a 25% loss on power expenses alone. Look out

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That’s definitely a more efficient way to destroy wealth than owning a bike shop.
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  #690  
Old 08-08-2021, 11:27 AM
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Tony T Tony T is offline
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Back again under 30
Back above 45
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