OT - Dow plunges 1,175 - worst point decline in history

[Mr. Pink]

Originally Posted by Clean39T

ftfy.

Are you familiar with Scott Galloway? He is not a fan of Musk at all. I once heard him describe a big part of the Tesla market as divorced fairly financial comfortable white guys who want to project to available women that, not only do they have money, but, that they are sensitive and really care about the world. Ha. Genius.

[Clean39T]

Originally Posted by Mr. Pink

Are you familiar with Scott Galloway? He is not a fan of Musk at all. I once heard him describe a big part of the Tesla market as divorced fairly financial comfortable white guys who want to project to available women that, not only do they have money, but, that they are sensitive and really care about the world. Ha. Genius.

[makoti]

Originally Posted by notsew

It's going to be interesting to see how Musks swing to the hard right impacts his Tesla customer base. A lot of those folks could easily be buying EVs from BMW or Merc.

Agree that Tesla's most likely future is as an acquisition target.

I've thought this, as well. The meat and potatoes of that base doesn't drive electric cars. It will be interesting to see how that affects sales.

[Mr. Pink]

Wait. Hard right? ***?

[bigbill]

Originally Posted by Mr. Pink

Wait. Hard right? ***?

That's a head-scratcher.

[adub]

Originally Posted by notsew

It's going to be interesting to see how Musks swing to the hard right impacts his Tesla customer base. A lot of those folks could easily be buying EVs from BMW or Merc.

Agree that Tesla's most likely future is as an acquisition target.

A bit of a generalization.

[makoti]

Originally Posted by Mr. Pink

Wait. Hard right? ***?

It's all relative.

[verticaldoug]

Originally Posted by veloduffer

Agree. A few considerations:

1) Musk doesn't necessarily have shareholders' long term interest in mind when he makes decisions, which can seem at a whim.

2) EV competition is just getting started. Every auto mfr will have a EV lineup from trucks, SUVs and cars. The one leg up/advantage Tesla has and maybe their future is battery production and EV charging infrastructure, which is way behind in terms of demand as all the new EV vehicles come on-line.

I suggest investing in Tesla if you have set aside a certain amount for speculation - wouldn't consider it as part of any core investment.

Let's not forget what the promise was-

TESLA is not just a car company, but a software company and so much more to justify it not being valued like an auto company but like Apple for the future ecosystem.

1. You can google the timelines, but in 2016 , 2018 and again in 2019, Musk promised full autonomous driving and said tesla would have a fleet of Robotaxis by mid-2020's and value would rocket.

2. The S, 3, Y were all unique when first launched, but automobile companies do not stand still. Mercedes and BMW launch a new generation of E-Class and 3 Series approximately every 7 years. The Tesla S is 2011 and looking dated. The Tesla Model 3 is 2017 debut and there is no refresh coming.

They have delivered 1 or 2 semi's, and I think the cybertruck is still largely being built by hand. When the cybertruck is finally delivered, chances are the Ford Lightening will already be up and running in full production.

3. Elon was smart in getting a plant up and running in China, and briefly had a sales pick-up, but the Chinese are fickle.

4. Elon tried to repeat the trick in Europe by building a plant in Germany, but the European car manufacturers are ahead of the curve and between the Europeans and Korean manufacturers, Europe is awash in EV models.

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There is a lot of Henry Ford in Elon, Ford was an original great innovator with the model T and the assembly line, but failed to move forward and stuck with the model too long. Other manufacturers adopted the assembly line and came out with newer and more powerful cars. I think this is the same mistake Elon and Tesla have made. (not too mention the irony of Twitter acquisition mirroring Ford getting lost in his newspaper )

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Having said that, there were a lot of rumors around about margin calls for twitter etc weighing on Tesla stock, and probably a lot of weak longs liquidated, and some weak shorts shorted thinking they could cover in a margin call. You probably see a short squeeze.

But trading is market timing and a lot harder than buying and holding in the long run.

The real trick will be what happens when Tesla has its first YOY decline in sales....

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by Mr. Pink

The Tesla customer is immune to recession.

Then all the 'bubbas' who are scarfing up BFTrucks are too since the $ to get a tesla is 'about' the same as a F150, Chevy Silverado or Toyota Tacoma.....

A Tesla car could cost you from $45,000 to well over $200,000 as of June 2022, according to Motor Trend magazine. As of June 20, 2022, a new Tesla Model 3 will run about $48,000.

What is the average price of a full-size pickup truck in 2022? MotorBisucuit's very own Sarah Brennan wrote that in 2020 the average price of a new pickup truck was $38,361. We saw truck prices go up last year, making the average cost of a new pickup truck in 2021 $46,105.

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by notsew

It's going to be interesting to see how Musks swing to the hard right impacts his Tesla customer base. A lot of those folks could easily be buying EVs from BMW or Merc.

Agree that Tesla's most likely future is as an acquisition target.

I hear musk is going to buy Southwest next and fix that too.

[the bottle ride]

There are a lot of smart investors (PHD’s etc), including arguably the best long term investor currently (as measured by the Morningstar 10-year success ratio- no investor has had as many better than average performance across a spectrum of products ), who are Tesla bulls and think the stock will double in the next 7 to 10 years.
He has beat delivery expectations on so many occasions and is continuing to build new factories- he might be able to grow the business.

SpaceX: that will really disrupt the telecom business.

[herb5998]

While Starlink has some great promise, managing costs of a low-earth orbit telecom system, which will require replacements on a 5 year basis, can be excessive and not a great business. Now, with the DoD contracts tied to the use of it, that may be what keeps it viable


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Mr. Pink]

Originally Posted by the bottle ride

There are a lot of smart investors (PHD’s etc), including arguably the best long term investor currently (as measured by the Morningstar 10-year success ratio- no investor has had as many better than average performance across a spectrum of products ), who are Tesla bulls and think the stock will double in the next 7 to 10 years.
He has beat delivery expectations on so many occasions and is continuing to build new factories- he might be able to grow the business.

SpaceX: that will really disrupt the telecom business.

Warren Buffet has a PHD? Who knew?

That's "long term" btw, not ten years. The last ten years, like most decades separated out from market history, is quite unique, and pretty much the past at this point, thanks to Jerome Powell. No more free money for tech bros.

And, as always, nobody can predict the future. Fools game, talking their books.

[Mr. Pink]

Originally Posted by herb5998

While Starlink has some great promise, managing costs of a low-earth orbit telecom system, which will require replacements on a 5 year basis, can be excessive and not a great business. Now, with the DoD contracts tied to the use of it, that may be what keeps it viable


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah, the fact that Starlink is basically the only means of communication in Ukraine after the power failures keeps him in very good steed with higher powers at the moment.

[Mr. Pink]

Originally Posted by verticaldoug

Let's not forget what the promise was-

TESLA is not just a car company, but a software company and so much more to justify it not being valued like an auto company but like Apple for the future ecosystem.

1. You can google the timelines, but in 2016 , 2018 and again in 2019, Musk promised full autonomous driving and said tesla would have a fleet of Robotaxis by mid-2020's and value would rocket.

2. The S, 3, Y were all unique when first launched, but automobile companies do not stand still. Mercedes and BMW launch a new generation of E-Class and 3 Series approximately every 7 years. The Tesla S is 2011 and looking dated. The Tesla Model 3 is 2017 debut and there is no refresh coming.

They have delivered 1 or 2 semi's, and I think the cybertruck is still largely being built by hand. When the cybertruck is finally delivered, chances are the Ford Lightening will already be up and running in full production.

3. Elon was smart in getting a plant up and running in China, and briefly had a sales pick-up, but the Chinese are fickle.

4. Elon tried to repeat the trick in Europe by building a plant in Germany, but the European car manufacturers are ahead of the curve and between the Europeans and Korean manufacturers, Europe is awash in EV models.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There is a lot of Henry Ford in Elon, Ford was an original great innovator with the model T and the assembly line, but failed to move forward and stuck with the model too long. Other manufacturers adopted the assembly line and came out with newer and more powerful cars. I think this is the same mistake Elon and Tesla have made. (not too mention the irony of Twitter acquisition mirroring Ford getting lost in his newspaper )

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Having said that, there were a lot of rumors around about margin calls for twitter etc weighing on Tesla stock, and probably a lot of weak longs liquidated, and some weak shorts shorted thinking they could cover in a margin call. You probably see a short squeeze.

But trading is market timing and a lot harder than buying and holding in the long run.

The real trick will be what happens when Tesla has its first YOY decline in sales....

The robot car scam still lives, I see. It was the reason that Uber was worth so much, and probably still gives it a decent premium, when it is essentially a taxi company with an app attached that burns through cash like it's water. I guess some will go to the grave thinking that, in .... just ... a... few... years, we'll be surrounded by driverless cars, and using crypto to pay for it all.