OT - Dow plunges 1,175 - worst point decline in history

[Likes2ridefar]

Originally Posted by Ken Robb

Where will you go?

Either will be forced to move farther away to the burbs which means all sorts of quality of life downgrades or we move to another state where we can actually buy a house rather than deal with insane rent. And that probably means back east…

[jlwdm]

Prices still rising in my area although sales are down. For the four cities around me the median sales price for the first four months of the year vs same period last year are up 20%, 24%, 28% and 41%.

Checked one city last weekend for sales since the first of April. Half sold for at least 10% over list and two for more than 45% over list.

Jeff

[Clean39T]

Originally Posted by jlwdm

Prices still rising in my area although sales are down. For the four cities around me the median sales price for the first four months of the year vs same period last year are up 20%, 24%, 28% and 41%.

Checked one city last weekend for sales since the first of April. Half sold for at least 10% over list and two for more than 45% over list.

Jeff

It's going to take more than a week for the 2+% move in mortgage rates to impact the housing market..

For a $500K house, the move from 3% to 5% is something like $700/mon in lost purchasing power.

FOMO is a powerful drug though and people are still rushing in to buy the top of this market.

[jlwdm]

Originally Posted by Clean39T

It's going to take more than a week for the 2+% move in mortgage rates to impact the housing market..

For a $500K house, the move from 3% to 5% is something like $700/mon in lost purchasing power.

FOMO is a powerful drug though and people are still rushing in to buy the top of this market.

I am generally talking about higher prices than that where rates are not showing a big impact. Still really hard to buy a house if financing or appraisal contingent.

Jeff

[Clean39T]

Originally Posted by jlwdm

I am generally talking about higher prices than that where rates are not showing a big impact. Still really hard to buy a house if financing or appraisal contingent.

Jeff

Many "cash offers" above asking or with waived appraisal are simply creative financing with a lot of leverage and risk.. or so the internet tells me. Which works fine, until it doesn't. It may not be the same as 2006-08 -- but it certainly rhymes.

[unterhausen]

This seems more reckless than 2008, although helocs were a big part of that crash. Don't see a lot of that now, price appreciation has been too fast

[Clean39T]

Originally Posted by unterhausen

This seems more reckless than 2008, although helocs were a big part of that crash. Don't see a lot of that now, price appreciation has been too fast

When price appreciation reverses though, the end result is the same.

You can either service your debt or you can't.

[HTupolev]

Originally Posted by Clean39T

I saw this on the interwebs today, someone explain why it's wrong:

Hard to peg the impact of most of the stuff that it brings up without specific data; obviously it's possible to list all kinds of factors that *can* drive housing prices up or down.

The post does give an estimate on housing supply adequacy by showing that (population/housing) is at a low, but this is a questionable way to assess what's being claimed. Population is not a very precise proxy for housing demand, you really need to look at household structure. For example, consider a household that consists of a couple of older adults, plus that couple's adult child, plus that adult child's spouse. In terms of population-per-housing, this situation is "exactly the same" as a household consisting of two adults and two children, but there's a much greater likelihood that another housing unit is sought.

The post also brings up that new construction is going up at a rapid rate. This is true: overall production post-2008 has been extremely low, but the current rate is high.

[Likes2ridefar]

Here it is, get your hot piece of desert in the wealthiest zip code in Arizona and top 20 in the country.

“The largest parcel of vacant land in Paradise Valley has been listed for sale at $55 million. The price has jumped more than 800% since it was last sold in 1997 for $6 million in cash.”

[jlwdm]

Originally Posted by Clean39T

Many "cash offers" above asking or with waived appraisal are simply creative financing with a lot of leverage and risk.. or so the internet tells me. Which works fine, until it doesn't. It may not be the same as 2006-08 -- but it certainly rhymes.

Not in my market. I see primarily straight cash offers and some where the buyer is getting a conventional loan, but the sale is not contingent upon buyer approval or appraisal. I don't remember the last time I did a sale without an appraisal waiver.

Jeff

[bigbill]

I'm glad that 59.5 is still a few years away. My IRA and 401 have taken a beating. When I leave this job, I was going to move the 401 money to the IRA for simplicity and reduced fees (from the amount). I can still combine but the fees won't change.

[azrider]

Originally Posted by Likes2ridefar

Daily ride goes through wealthy housing area (many $1M homes and many more well north of that) and for the past year or more it was incredibly rare to see for sale signs and if there were they said sold before the sign even made it to the dirt.

The past month or two each day seems to be another popping up, many more for sale and they aren’t saying sold and aren’t quickly disappearing.. starting to panic or maybe squeeze one last big flip?

Yep. A very large number of houses that are currently listed in our area have YUGE price cut/reductions to the tune of $100K or more. This one has slashed by $250K !!
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[azrider]

Originally Posted by Likes2ridefar

squeeze one last big flip?

Talk about 'quick' flip.........so ridiculous
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[Clean39T]

Originally Posted by azrider

Talk about 'quick' flip.........so ridiculous
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I blame HGTV.

[joosttx]

Hmmm the house I now own is not worth $2m anymore. The house I want to buy is not worth $4m anymore. Both the homes’ value fall at a similar percentage…. I think I’m winning.