OT - Dow plunges 1,175 - worst point decline in history

[Tony T]

Originally Posted by Spoker

Am I crazy ...to convert all my investment to cash until after the elections. .

I was thinking this also.

[mtechnica]

I don’t know anything about the stock market but it seems like weekend at bernies and it’s just a matter of time before someone takes off his sunglasses and figures out he’s nonresponsive. And that’s not even taking into account the crazy stuff the Republicans are going to pull between now and January whether or not Biden wins. I’m not sure if civil unrest is good or bad for the market but maybe factor that into upcoming decisions.

[Davist]

Originally Posted by Tony T

I was thinking this also.

Given that the money supply has already increased, what, about 30%? due to relief packages, and likely to add another few $ Trillion, I don't think a cash position makes much sense now, but I'm no expert...

[Tony T]

Originally Posted by Davist

Given that the money supply has already increased, what, about 30%? due to relief packages, and likely to add another few $ Trillion, I don't think a cash position makes much sense now, but I'm no expert...

Only makes sense if one thinks the market is overvalued.
(I'm starting to think that)

[Clean39T]

Originally Posted by mtechnica

I don’t know anything about the stock market but it seems like weekend at bernies and it’s just a matter of time before someone takes off his sunglasses and figures out he’s nonresponsive. And that’s not even taking into account the crazy stuff the Republicans are going to pull between now and January whether or not Biden wins. I’m not sure if civil unrest is good or bad for the market but maybe factor that into upcoming decisions.

The housing market is doing the same thing. Prices in the last two months have gone absolutely insane in the hotter markets and there's no rationale way to not see it all as one giant asset-bubble. But what do you do? Yell at the clouds?

[maxim809]

Yes housing is indeed crazy right now.

From the vantage point of my tiny microcosm of a bubble in Silicon Valley/San Francisco, I'm actually seeing 1~6 people vacating apartments per week. My colleagues I compare notes with are witnessing the same movement.

For those leaving, I see 3 profiles: leaving for greater opportunity in a more affordable place, moving back with their parents, purchasing a 1st home outside of SV/SF.

What I've observed is that housing has become even MORE desirable for those who can afford to WFH. Those lucky to be able to work remotely have tons of wiggle room in regards to where they can now reside. All that pent-up demand from young tech workers who toughed it out for several years in tiny apartments are spilling into all other "desirable" regions, starting with those closest to SF.

There are of course exceptions, but this is the 10,000ft view.

[kppolich]

With WFH being widely accepted basically everywhere there is no need for those people to stay in the high rent cities like Denver, Boulder, Bay Area, NYC, etc.

Education will follow soon after with online universities surging and expensive, in person establishments plummeting.

People will just spend their money elsewhere.

[stackie]

Originally Posted by maxim809

Yes housing is indeed crazy right now.

From the vantage point of my tiny microcosm of a bubble in Silicon Valley/San Francisco, I'm actually seeing 1~6 people vacating apartments per week. My colleagues I compare notes with are witnessing the same movement.

For those leaving, I see 3 profiles: leaving for greater opportunity in a more affordable place, moving back with their parents, purchasing a 1st home outside of SV/SF.

What I've observed is that housing has become even MORE desirable for those who can afford to WFH. Those lucky to be able to work remotely have tons of wiggle room in regards to where they can now reside. All that pent-up demand from young tech workers who toughed it out for several years in tiny apartments are spilling into all other "desirable" regions, starting with those closest to SF.

There are of course exceptions, but this is the 10,000ft view.

Ya, here in Monterey Bay, everyone is putting their houses on the market like it's on fire. Actually, we are on fire right now. But, seriously, one of the houses on the market last week had smoke filled haze in the air in the photos.

And, they are being snapped up in a couple of days for prices that would have been laughable a year ago.

I'm kind of stuck as I have a good job here that I have to show up in person too. And my family pretty happy here.

Still trying to decide what to do with retirement investment. Probably end up doing nothing out of sheer inertia.

Jon

[Clean39T]

Originally Posted by maxim809

Yes housing is indeed crazy right now.

From the vantage point of my tiny microcosm of a bubble in Silicon Valley/San Francisco, I'm actually seeing 1~6 people vacating apartments per week. My colleagues I compare notes with are witnessing the same movement.

For those leaving, I see 3 profiles: leaving for greater opportunity in a more affordable place, moving back with their parents, purchasing a 1st home outside of SV/SF.

What I've observed is that housing has become even MORE desirable for those who can afford to WFH. Those lucky to be able to work remotely have tons of wiggle room in regards to where they can now reside. All that pent-up demand from young tech workers who toughed it out for several years in tiny apartments are spilling into all other "desirable" regions, starting with those closest to SF.

There are of course exceptions, but this is the 10,000ft view.

It seems they are all moving to the lifestyle locales in the rest of the West - Reno, Bend, Ashland, Portland, Boise, Oly Pen, etc. - which was our two-year plan that was just about to come true right before Covid hit and everything went nuts.. We didn't find anything earlier in the year (home sale closed March 3), then had a purchase fall through in July because there was a major construction defect found on inspection (the house then sold a week later for $10K over our accepted offer, presumably for cash given the almost immediate close date). Now we are more or less stuck in a tiny rental that was supposed to be short-term, fighting to find somewhere else but not wanting to go all-in on a shoddily built house that is $200K more than it should be simply due to a lack of inventory and the low interest rates. I find myself shouting at clouds, cursing the FED(s), and slowly losing my grip - but then I remember I have a roof over my head, food on my plate, and a steady job...and try to take it all in stride.. We've pretty much given up on moving to Bend at this point, unless the market crashes while we're still stuck in our rental. In the meantime, we're expanding our search and looking for a third-tier area to move to - someplace that has good cycling, a food co-op, hopefully some decent coffee, and that isn't bright-red on the spectrum - and that has a regional airport within an hour-and-a-half. Suggestions welcome.

[echappist]

Originally Posted by Clean39T

It seems they are all moving to the lifestyle locales in the rest of the West - Reno, Bend, Ashland, Portland, Boise, Oly Pen, etc. - which was our two-year plan that was just about to come true right before Covid hit and everything went nuts.. We didn't find anything earlier in the year (home sale closed March 3), then had a purchase fall through in July because there was a major construction defect found on inspection (the house then sold a week later for $10K over our accepted offer, presumably for cash given the almost immediate close date). Now we are more or less stuck in a tiny rental that was supposed to be short-term, fighting to find somewhere else but not wanting to go all-in on a shoddily built house that is $200K more than it should be simply due to a lack of inventory and the low interest rates. I find myself shouting at clouds, cursing the FED(s), and slowly losing my grip - but then I remember I have a roof over my head, food on my plate, and a steady job...and try to take it all in stride.. We've pretty much given up on moving to Bend at this point, unless the market crashes while we're still stuck in our rental. In the meantime, we're expanding our search and looking for a third-tier area to move to - someplace that has good cycling, a food co-op, hopefully some decent coffee, and that isn't bright-red on the spectrum - and that has a regional airport within an hour-and-a-half. Suggestions welcome.

If out-of-state is okay, Madison, WI? Literally satisfies everyone one of the requirement you listed, and then some.

If my wife could find a job locally after finishing her program, I definitely would love to stay in the area.

[akelman]

Originally Posted by Clean39T

In the meantime, we're expanding our search and looking for a third-tier area to move to - someplace that has good cycling, a food co-op, hopefully some decent coffee, and that isn't bright-red on the spectrum - and that has a regional airport within an hour-and-a-half. Suggestions welcome.

This describes Davis, CA almost perfectly. Summers are too hot. It's too flat. But if you ride twelve miles west of town or fifteen miles east, you're in very pretty country. SMF is twenty minutes away and a GREAT airport. That said, the cost of housing may be higher than you want.

[akelman]

Originally Posted by kppolich

Education will follow soon after with online universities surging and expensive, in person establishments plummeting.

Students aren't loving remote learning. At all. And higher education is much, much, MUCH more than what happens in classrooms. Which leaves me unsure about the future for online universities. (Which, honestly, serve different demographics and functions than most four-year colleges and universities.) Anyway, many in-person institutions will suffer. Some will close. But the better schools won't be replaced by online alternatives any time soon. I think Covid is probably making that shift less rather than more likely.

[mtechnica]

Originally Posted by Clean39T

The housing market is doing the same thing. Prices in the last two months have gone absolutely insane in the hotter markets and there's no rationale way to not see it all as one giant asset-bubble. But what do you do? Yell at the clouds?

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent or something”

- A Guy

[Clean39T]

Originally Posted by mtechnica

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent or something”



- A Guy

I'm not shorting it, just dumbfounded and frustrated by it.....but yeah, I see the point..

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[kppolich]

Originally Posted by akelman

Students aren't loving remote learning. At all. And higher education is much, much, MUCH more than what happens in classrooms. Which leaves me unsure about the future for online universities. (Which, honestly, serve different demographics and functions than most four-year colleges and universities.) Anyway, many in-person institutions will suffer. Some will close. But the better schools won't be replaced by online alternatives any time soon. I think Covid is probably making that shift less rather than more likely.

They might not like it, but soon they may have no choice. No college or remote college? Barring a vaccine, the 2020 school year is still up in the air.

On topic: those endowments should be back to full strength so let's see what happens.