OT - Dow plunges 1,175 - worst point decline in history

[Mr. Pink]

Originally Posted by texbike

Am I wrong to be suspicious of anything put out by the current administration including the unemployment numbers? We ARE in an election year, polling numbers are down for the incumbent, the economy is hurting, AND the Department of Labor/BLS leader was installed by the Prez and is a former Special Assistant to the AG William Barr. The unemployment numbers all of a sudden went in a strangely different direction than everyone expected. Is it possible that there's been a bit of manipulation at play here if not outright deceit?

Texbike

Gee, ya think? Like anybody would trust the present numbers regarding the economy and the spreading virus.

Never forget that Larry Kudlow is a chief economic advisor. He's not an economist, but he played one on TV.

[jm714]

Originally Posted by Mr. Pink

Gee, ya think? Like anybody would trust the present numbers regarding the economy and the spreading virus.

Never forget that Larry Kudlow is a chief economic advisor. He's not an economist, but he played one on TV.

Maybe the numbers are BS, but maybe they aren’t. I drive 57 miles to work. When California went to lockdown if you weren’t doing 80 in the fast lane you were being pushed out of the way and you had no business in the fast lane. Over the past 3-4 weeks I have noticed a steady increase in traffic during my commute time. Yesterday the 91 freeway eastbound looked like its old self with afternoon gridlock of people trying to get from Orange County to the Inland Empire.

[Mr. Pink]

Originally Posted by jm714

Maybe the numbers are BS, but maybe they aren’t. I drive 57 miles to work. When California went to lockdown if you weren’t doing 80 in the fast lane you were being pushed out of the way and you had no business in the fast lane. Over the past 3-4 weeks I have noticed a steady increase in traffic during my commute time. Yesterday the 91 freeway eastbound looked like its old self with afternoon gridlock of people trying to get from Orange County to the Inland Empire.

Hey, we'll see. For me, if we don't see emergency rooms and funeral homes overflowing after the Memorial Day coming out and now these nationwide protests with people shoulder to shoulder shouting, then, cool, we're good for summer. I'm watching a bunch of fools on my TV go out first and test the waters. If we do see deaths, hoo boy. I give it until the end of the month.

Then there's the whole issue of no new stimulus spending, and all this fake money that has been keeping people paying rent and car payments while not working evaporates, with a president who probably won't sign a new bill because that would admit failure. Watch for that in August.

Like the article from the NYT posted above points out, and I've studied this a little too, the market rallied like mad after the '29 crash. And it rallied a few more times on it's way down to spectacular losses and a worldwide depression. We'll see. Personally, it makes zero sense to me that people expect the market to actually go back to rising the way it was just three months ago after a fantastic ten year bull run, with an epidemic attacking the world, protests in the streets, and UE still in the teens. You justify that to me. I think it's whack. And, what's my return for all the downside risk? What, I'm going to jump into what I think is a high priced market that maybe, maybe, would give me, at the most, twenty percent this year, when, at the same time, could make 30-40% to lord knows how much just vanish? Nope, sorry, let the fools go before me.

[Burnette]

Originally Posted by jm714

Maybe the numbers are BS, but maybe they aren’t. I drive 57 miles to work. When California went to lockdown if you weren’t doing 80 in the fast lane you were being pushed out of the way and you had no business in the fast lane. Over the past 3-4 weeks I have noticed a steady increase in traffic during my commute time. Yesterday the 91 freeway eastbound looked like its old self with afternoon gridlock of people trying to get from Orange County to the Inland Empire.

I'm in NC and the uptick is noticable. The key is the partial opening for sure. Before the virus jobs, especially skilled jobs were showing demand. That will return in some sectors quickly.

The rate is recovery in the market has been swift, Main Street's recovery will follow as people go back to work.

[mtechnica]

Originally Posted by jm714

Yesterday the 91 freeway eastbound looked like its old self with afternoon gridlock of people trying to get from Orange County to the Inland Empire.

This is going to be life starting next week...

[jm714]

Originally Posted by Mr. Pink

Like the article from the NYT posted above points out, and I've studied this a little too, the market rallied like mad after the '29 crash. And it rallied a few more times on it's way down to spectacular losses and a worldwide depression. We'll see. Personally, it makes zero sense to me that people expect the market to actually go back to rising the way it was just three months ago after a fantastic ten year bull run, with an epidemic attacking the world, protests in the streets, and UE still in the teens. You justify that to me. I think it's whack. And, what's my return for all the downside risk? What, I'm going to jump into what I think is a high priced market that maybe, maybe, would give me, at the most, twenty percent this year, when, at the same time, could make 30-40% to lord knows how much just vanish? Nope, sorry, let the fools go before me.

I’m not commenting on the market only on whether or not the employment data is correct. My narrow piece of the country seems like it is getting back to work based upon the traffic patterns I see on a daily basis.

I will also say that I work for a city and we haven’t seen a big drop in construction projects coming across the counter for plan review etc.

Lastly my wife has a couple of friends in the real estate industry. Houses are still getting top dollar due to the lack of inventory. We have been thinking of selling to maybe catch the market on the downside, but I don’t have confidence I can pull it off.

[Mr. Pink]

Considering that these numbers are basically released by the WH, I dont trust them at all. Not a source of truth.

[BobbyJones]

Originally Posted by Mr. Pink

Considering that these numbers are basically released by the WH, I dont trust them at all. Not a source of truth.

A little OT- can someone reconcile these two statements:

1) The stats I heard today...1 in 4 of the workforce is or has applied (active claim) for unemployment.

2) The unemployment rate is 13.3%

[Tony T]

NAZDAQ Record intraday high.





Wow.

[zap]

Originally Posted by BobbyJones

A little OT- can someone reconcile these two statements:

1) The stats I heard today...1 in 4 of the workforce is or has applied (active claim) for unemployment.

2) The unemployment rate is 13.3%

Differing unemployment rates....

U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force
1.3 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.4

U-2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force
1.4 13.1 11.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.4 13.2 11.6

U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)
3.4 14.4 13.0 3.6 3.6 3.5 4.4 14.7 13.3

U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers
3.6 14.8 13.3 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.7 15.1 13.6

U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force
4.2 15.6 14.2 4.5 4.4 4.4 5.2 16.0 14.6

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force
6.7 22.4 20.7 7.2 6.9 7.0 8.7 22.8 21.2

[kppolich]

Originally Posted by Tony T

NAZDAQ Record intraday high.

Wow.

Wow what? The country is still the same, the people buying the stocks are still the same. The Nasdaq is mostly tech and internet related which if anything has flourished and shown the true dependency that most of civilization relies on to survive. This recent quarantine and partial shutdown situation showed some real winners and losers with terms of diversification and agility.

[joosttx]

Occidental petro up 30% in one day. Incredible.

[oldguy00]

Originally Posted by Burnette

Market up 700, sitting at 27,000, let's see if it holds

Made out like a bandit today on energy and bank holdings I had loaded up on a month ago (Suncor, etc).

Through all of these past couple months, there have been some painfully obvious deals on the market for those that had money to invest.

[54ny77]

There are a variety of consumer-based indices in fixed income products that are a decent proxy for unemployment, since payment is correlated to income (or cashflow). Not that they match in lock step, but it's close. As such, I wouldn't be surprised if the base unemployment number is in the teens. The real number, however (which would include a broad swath of people in various unemployment subcategories) I would venture to be in the 20% range, more or less. It is a massive figure. For the well paying and highly skilled jobs that are out there that remain unfilled, there is also the question of the skill level of the available labor force to fill those jobs. It's not a good situation.

[BobbyJones]

Having a real Kenny Rogers moment this evening.