OT: Electric Vehicles--anyone driving them or seriously looked at them?

[robt57]

All true. My friend who's livelihood includes 1000 gal min/month consumption of diesel between hauling and running heavy equipment makes/has great arguments anti ALL EV direction.

Originally Posted by Onno

"War on" always strikes me as unnecessarily inflammatory, suggesting that the real motivation is malice, an intentional targeting of a specific group. That's just not true here. Obviously the real intention of these laws is to mitigate climate warming, and to do that we have to severely restrict our collective use of fossil fuels. Yes, doing this will affect people unequally (which is true of all laws), it will be a bumpy road, and mistakes will be made. But if we are going to survive the effects of climate change, which will itself dramatically and unequally affect everyone, then we need to move to an all or nearly-all electric world.

[Ralph]

Speaking as an 81 year old man, I am confident the problems associated with EV's, their batteries, and the power grid will be solved over time.

I recall seeing a letter my 17 year old Dad wrote in "1927" back home to Western North Carolina, about his trip out to Clovis, New Mexico in a Model T Ford. That he only had 7 flats on the trip, and he was able to repair all of them on side of the dirt road by himself.

My dad worked in Clovis a while, then drove that model T to Helena, Montana in 1928, worked there a while, then drove that same model T back home to North Carolina. He encountered all kinds of vehicle problems, had to carry extra cans of fuel, strapped extra tires plus extra wheel to outside of car.

In summer 1957 he drove us all out west on almost same route in a 56 Chrysler, and he talked constantly about how nice it was to travel out west in a "modern" car (5 of us with no AC).

So I imagine we will solve the EV problems also in time.

[robt57]

Flying cars baby. EV of course...

Just in my lifetime, started driving 70s affording 60s cars. Engines seldom made it to 100k driven with the abuse we put on cars today. I've sold a few 90s cars with +200k that you couldn't hear the engine running. I recall pulling a 1967 Cutlass 330ci V8 with 80k that ate oil and smoked...

Originally Posted by Ralph

Speaking as an 81 year old man, I am confident the problems associated with EV's, their batteries, and the power grid will be solved over time.

I recall seeing a letter my 17 year old Dad wrote in "1927" back home to Western North Carolina, about his trip out to Clovis, New Mexico in a Model T Ford. That he only had 7 flats on the trip, and he was able to repair all of them on side of the dirt road by himself.

My dad worked in Clovis a while, then drove that model T to Helena, Montana in 1928, worked there a while, then drove that same model T back home to North Carolina. He encountered all kinds of vehicle problems, had to carry extra cans of fuel, strapped extra tires plus extra wheel to outside of car.

In summer 1957 he drove us all out west on almost same route in a 56 Chrysler, and he talked constantly about how nice it was to travel out west in a modern car (with no AC).

So I imagine we will solve the EV problems also in time.

[fried bake]

Originally Posted by Ralph

Speaking as an 81 year old man, I am confident the problems associated with EV's, their batteries, and the power grid will be solved over time.

I recall seeing a letter my 17 year old Dad wrote in "1927" back home to Western North Carolina, about his trip out to Clovis, New Mexico in a Model T Ford. That he only had 7 flats on the trip, and he was able to repair all of them on side of the dirt road by himself.

My dad worked in Clovis a while, then drove that model T to Helena, Montana in 1928, worked there a while, then drove that same model T back home to North Carolina. He encountered all kinds of vehicle problems, had to carry extra cans of fuel, strapped extra tires plus extra wheel to outside of car.

In summer 1957 he drove us all out west on almost same route in a 56 Chrysler, and he talked constantly about how nice it was to travel out west in a "modern" car (with no AC).

So I imagine we will solve the EV problems also in time.

This is a valuable contribution to the thread. Very insightful, and a reminder that the pace and scale progress is not linear.


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[openwheelracing]

Originally Posted by Ralph

Speaking as an 81 year old man, I am confident the problems associated with EV's, their batteries, and the power grid will be solved over time.

I recall seeing a letter my 17 year old Dad wrote in "1927" back home to Western North Carolina, about his trip out to Clovis, New Mexico in a Model T Ford. That he only had 7 flats on the trip, and he was able to repair all of them on side of the dirt road by himself.

My dad worked in Clovis a while, then drove that model T to Helena, Montana in 1928, worked there a while, then drove that same model T back home to North Carolina. He encountered all kinds of vehicle problems, had to carry extra cans of fuel, strapped extra tires plus extra wheel to outside of car.

In summer 1957 he drove us all out west on almost same route in a 56 Chrysler, and he talked constantly about how nice it was to travel out west in a "modern" car (with no AC).

So I imagine we will solve the EV problems also in time.

[Mr. Pink]

Originally Posted by dmitrik4

OK

Were automobiles a huge improvement over horses right away? Not by a long shot. They were more expensive, slower, and less reliable. They were novelty items—rich people toys.

Eventually, they were much better than horses. Same thing will happen here; remember, current EVs are basically the most rudimentary, least capable ones that will ever be made. It’s going to happen.

Sure it's going to happen. But, why are there no obvious preparations for such a surge in electrical needs? I hear zero talk about that. Zero. Because it's hard, and there's no profit in it. But everybody is elbowing each other out of the way to say, look how much more virtuous am I. I will save the world! Buy a Tesla!

[Mr. Pink]

Originally Posted by MikeD

It's not only EVs. It's a war on nat gas appliances like home water heaters and furnaces. It's a war on diesel big rigs. The last one is a biggie. Just about everything in the "Golden State" moves by truck. Talk about cratering the economy, this one has a huge potential to do so. I see a trucker strike looming.

I've been hearing in a ski forum a lot of whining about the decision to ban gas powered snow blowers. Ever been to Tahoe during one of the snow events that just buried them? It's an insane amount of wet snow. They haven't engineered an electric snow blower to handle that yet.

[fa63]

It may not exist yet, but it will soon Just like semis that will run on electricity, and everything else gas powered that people seem to think is irreplaceable.

Who needs a gas stove or hot water heater anyways? Our hybrid heat pump hot water heater works incredibly well.

Originally Posted by Mr. Pink

I've been hearing in a ski forum a lot of whining about the decision to ban gas powered snow blowers. Ever been to Tahoe during one of the snow events that just buried them? It's an insane amount of wet snow. They haven't engineered an electric snow blower to handle that yet.

[dmitrik4]

Originally Posted by BdaGhisallo

Were the limits on the penetration of the automobile - more gasoline and more stations selling it - as great as the current limits on battery development?

There's only so much of every element in the Earth's crust and doing the math on what will be needed for batteries, if the current path of greater electrification of society is maintained, seems to indicate that there isn't enough stuff to make what will be needed.

Those are good questions and legitimate points; I’d argue that: a) technology isn’t static, and just because we’re using certain elements and battery technology now doesn’t mean we will continue to do so—in fact, my bet would be the opposite; and b) our current fossil fuel infrastructure wasn’t built overnight—our charging infrastructure won’t be either. I think the bulk of the transition will happen faster than many people think, but the tail will also be longer than many people think.

My understanding is that it’s currently cheaper to mine new battery materials than to recycle them; that is also bound to change.

I guess I look back at basically the entirety of human history and see that there have always been technical roadblocks and barriers that were considered insurmountable, that somehow we figured out. And my bet is that we’ll do that with batteries and fancy electrical outlets.

[dmitrik4]

Originally Posted by Mr. Pink

Sure it's going to happen. But, why are there no obvious preparations for such a surge in electrical needs? I hear zero talk about that. Zero. Because it's hard, and there's no profit in it. But everybody is elbowing each other out of the way to say, look how much more virtuous am I. I will save the world! Buy a Tesla!

Planning and management of the electrical grid has always been hard and complicated, but I disagree with the idea that there’s no planning going on. There is always planning, and EVs are just one item in a whole bunch of issues. Probably why you haven’t heard about a strong central strategy is because that’s not how we do things here—there is little of that central planning. But there is definitely money to be made in power generation and transmission, and those companies are incredibly busy right now.

It’s probably also a mistake to assign a moral value to this, in either direction. Sure, there are some people who act that way and sure, there is some aspect of that in marketing, but the same could be said for many products. Not everything needs to be reduced to “evil [_____] are pushing this for [vague reasons]” or “ignorant [______] oppose this for [equally vague reasons].”

[Polyglot]

I worked for the largest manufacturer of automotive batteries in Italy in the 90's. The company was working hard at developing new battery chemistries and battery designs and participated in many research projects dealing with EV's. A car using our batteries set many speed, and distance records for EV's at the time. The head engineer in charge of the research facility said that initial market-ready EVs were about 25 years off. Turns out he was pretty accurate his estimate. People in the industry knew (and know) what they need to modify to make things work.

Staying in the realm of batteries, in the 70's, less than 5% of starter batteries were being recycled in Italy. By 1995, it was over 95%. The same change with lithium ion batteries is already starting to take place. There are new recovery/recycling facilities starting to pop up. This is how any nascent industry works. I personally have no worries about availability of raw materials for batteries or their recycling.

I purchased my first EV in 2014 and replaced it with my second one in 2018. I sold the second one last month. The first one is still being used to commute by its current owner and the second one had less than 2% range deterioration over 4 plus years when sold. The total depreciation between the two cars over the 8 years of use was $13k, so about $1,600/year on cars with a MSRP of more than $50K. The operating expenses were less than 1/3 of what I ever paid for any ICE vehicle. Spent way less time waiting for recharges than I ever spent previously for filling up ICE vehicles. I simply plugged in each night when coming home (took less than 10 seconds to do) and in the morning I had a full charge. Over 8 years, I only charged up "in the wild" less than 10 times and then timed the recharge to coincide with a lunch or meal break, so effectively never needed to stop exclusively to recharge on the spot. Only one time did this not work because of a defective charging station, meaning I needed to wait 45 minutes as the car slowly recharged at a painfully slow rate.

I sold the second EV last month because the resale value was so outrageously high and I currently drive so little that even at 3 times the operating expense, an ICE doesn't appreciably make a difference to me and I already had a 20-year old collector car that was sufficient for all my needs.

[fa63]

My wife is a power engineer, works on transmission & distribution lines for a living. I can tell you unequivocally that there are preparations. Just because it is not in the news doesn't mean it is not happening

Originally Posted by Mr. Pink

But, why are there no obvious preparations for such a surge in electrical needs? I hear zero talk about that. Zero.

[saab2000]

Ralph’s comment is the best one here. The rest of the cloud shouting is just noise. ICE vehicles won’t disappear tomorrow or next week and EVs won’t take over overnight.

All the cranky people can stand down.

[MikeD]

A fellow engineer coworker of mine said about 30 years ago that history will look upon the burning of fossil fuels for energy as foolhardy, but not because of the environmental effects, it's because of everything in modern society that is made from them like plastics, chemicals, fertilizers drugs, etc. At the time there was real talk about running out of oil.

[Mr. Pink]

Originally Posted by dmitrik4

Planning and management of the electrical grid has always been hard and complicated, but I disagree with the idea that there’s no planning going on. There is always planning, and EVs are just one item in a whole bunch of issues. Probably why you haven’t heard about a strong central strategy is because that’s not how we do things here—there is little of that central planning. But there is definitely money to be made in power generation and transmission, and those companies are incredibly busy right now.

It’s probably also a mistake to assign a moral value to this, in either direction. Sure, there are some people who act that way and sure, there is some aspect of that in marketing, but the same could be said for many products. Not everything needs to be reduced to “evil [_____] are pushing this for [vague reasons]” or “ignorant [______] oppose this for [equally vague reasons].”

Dude, these are utilities. I know that a lot of it has been privatized lately, (to it's detrement, of course, but, profitable for a few), but we all should be informed constantly about what's going on, right? Because, we all pay for it, both in taxes and bills. And it's really really important to modern life, especially when politicians start mandating stuff for my good. Why the secrecy? Why the defense of secrecy? How can you defend that?