OT - Dow plunges 1,175 - worst point decline in history

[thwart]

Originally Posted by tomato coupe

If the Dow drops another 361 points (1.8%) we'll be back to where it was when Trump took office.

And inherited Obama's successful, measured and gradual approach to the 2008 meltdown. And in his usual modest way, DJT said everything was due to his brilliant, excellent moves.

History repeats itself, especially when not much is learned.

FWIW I'd bet some money we'll drop another 1.8%, unfortunately. And more.

[makoti]

Originally Posted by thwart

And inherited Obama's successful, measured and gradual approach to the 2008 meltdown. And in his usual modest way, DJT said everything was due to his brilliant, excellent moves.

History repeats itself, especially when not much is learned.

FWIW I'd bet some money we'll drop another 1.8%, unfortunately. And more.

People said they wanted his business acumen. Folks, ya got it.

[fkelly]

The bookies (err ... I mean brokerage houses) make money on volatility. They made money on the ride from dow 20,000 to dow near 30,000 and they made money on the way back down and they'll be there to collect when it goes up again. I bet there are quantitative traders making a few cents on every trade taking place too.

[MattTuck]

Originally Posted by adub

Curious what metric you use to get to 1800?

Keep in mind that was 2018 that I said that. I don't think it was an overly technical analysis that got me to that number. Was just expecting a significant decline. Looking at how big the run up was, increase in debt of all kinds, unprecedented fed intervention, increase in P/E ratios, etc.

In fact, the fed interventions that were probably the biggest red flag. We were going on a decade of central bank interventions that were essentially emergency untested measures that the market had come to depend on. No progress on unwinding them, or making real reforms on the fiscal policy side, or regulatory solutions to the causes of the 2008/2009 crisis.

A recent goldman-sachs note looked at a few scenarios...



Realistically, I would never advise anyone to be totally out of the market, and wait until such a specific trigger to fully reinvest. My being out of the market was as much emotional as it was a rational assessment of the risks.

[gemship]

So I was talking about the stock market with someone I didn't know, a passer by walking past my home yesterday and I thought of this thread. He claimed his ex wife lost almost 47k then he went to say she had something like 300k in the market.

Anyone on here got the kahuna's to tell how much you lost?

Personally I don't have a dime in the stock market. I just find all this talk about it fascinating so I keep on reading this thread thinking I may learn something.

To repeat, does anybody care to divulge how much of a loss they have taken?...not that it matters but it just seems to add a sense of reality, shock value to what I think simply put is a numbers game.

[Llewellyn]

Originally Posted by gemship

So I was talking about the stock market with someone I didn't know, a passer by walking past my home yesterday and I thought of this thread. He claimed his ex wife lost almost 47k then he went to say she had something like 300k in the market.

Anyone on here got the kahuna's to tell how much you lost?

Personally I don't have a dime in the stock market. I just find all this talk about it fascinating so I keep on reading this thread thinking I may learn something.

To repeat, does anybody care to divulge how much of a loss they have taken?...not that it matters but it just seems to add a sense of reality, shock value to what I think simply put is a numbers game.

We're down about $AUD 120k (roughly $US 70k) but we haven't lost it because we haven't sold anything, and we don't intend to.

It hurts but we're not panicking. Rather, when things settle down we plan to buy some stocks that are currently on sale with a nice discount. As I've said earlier in the thread...in five years time this bear market will look like a blip on the graph.

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by thwart

And inherited Obama's successful, measured and gradual approach to the 2008 meltdown. And in his usual modest way, DJT said everything was due to his brilliant, excellent moves.

History repeats itself, especially when not much is learned.

FWIW I'd bet some money we'll drop another 1.8%, unfortunately. And more.

Every POTUS gets their 'crisis'. History will compare and contrast. NOT MSM's fault either...

[gemship]

Originally Posted by Llewellyn

We're down about $AUD 120k (roughly $US 70k) but we haven't lost it because we haven't sold anything, and we don't intend to.

It hurts but we're not panicking. Rather, when things settle down we plan to buy some stocks that are currently on sale with a nice discount. As I've said earlier in the thread...in five years time this bear market will look like a blip on the graph.

That sounds like a lot but when you put that way it's not so bad. So I was thinking the same thing when this stranger stated what he said. Thus why I see it as a numbers game. So long as you stay in the game with a sensible plan how can you really lose?

[goonster]

I've been checking mortgage rates for possible refinancing, and the rate quoted by my FCU went up 0.5% since Friday.

Liquidity squeeze? Credit market weirdness?

Anybody else seeing this?

[seanile]

Originally Posted by gemship

To repeat, does anybody care to divulge how much of a loss they have taken?...not that it matters but it just seems to add a sense of reality, shock value to what I think simply put is a numbers game.

i'm down about 30%, in line with the s&p. unfortunately my buy-in stages were not pessimistic enough and i put most of my mmkt $ in at -8% and -13%

[zap]

Originally Posted by goonster

I've been checking mortgage rates for possible refinancing, and the rate quoted by my FCU went up 0.5% since Friday.

Liquidity squeeze? Credit market weirdness?

Anybody else seeing this?

Market at work. There are so many applications in the pipeline that brokers and investors have put the brakes on....so to speak...by raising rates. I also heard that some investors believe that this is a short term situation (ultra low yields) and are not willing to participate in this low rate environment.

[prototoast]

Originally Posted by goonster

I've been checking mortgage rates for possible refinancing, and the rate quoted by my FCU went up 0.5% since Friday.

Liquidity squeeze? Credit market weirdness?

Anybody else seeing this?

From what I've read, everyone's trying to refinance right now, and the system just handle that level of demand. Just give it a few months and things will probably settle down and rates will fall.

[el cheapo]

About that prediction way back when....I bailed on stocks with the exception of emerging market bonds when it looked like "the prez" was going to be impeached. Just had a bad feeling this wasn't going to end well. All in cash...thank goodness! Now when to get back in is the question?

[bigbill]

I'm staying in for the long run. I've lost many tens of thousands in value, but I still have the stocks. I continue to pack my 401, I'm just getting a lot for my money right now. The market will recover once some good news comes out concerning the virus.

[Jeff N.]

Was expecting another nose dive this AM only to find almost everything is into the green! Craziness.