OT: Electric Vehicles--anyone driving them or seriously looked at them?

[HenryA]

Originally Posted by callmeishmael

That's a fair point and one worth considering. Perhaps the better solution is to buy a used EV?

The elephant in the room in the UK is the ban on new petrol and diesel vehicles from 2030, with a likely ban - or, at least, punitive taxation - on the sale of used ones from 2035. In other words, in not much more than a decade, you will likely be forced into an EV if you want/need a new car. Currently, the infrastructure doesn't support that.

I suspect there will be some rethinking of the ban date as it approaches.

[dmitrik4]

But infrastructure will adapt. It has before, when people riding horses laughed at those new-fangled “auto mobiles.” Where you gonna refuel that thing? My horse can just eat grass when it gets hungry!

We’re still in the early, early days of EV development. Even given the (overblown) issues with manufacturing (ICE vehicles also use a lot of energy and create a lot of waste/pollution to build), the immense efficiency advantage of EV powertrains over IC make it almost inevitable. The two main hurdles now are charging infrastructure and battery energy density, and those are solvable things.

[HenryA]

“Magical thinking is the assumption that favored conditions will continue on forever without regard for history.”

There seems to be either a willful disregard for how people and societies function or complete ignorance of it. Mostly the latter, I think. Throw into that, the wishes of central planners and industry capturing or at least manipulating government interventions and we get where we are today. If only they could leave it alone.

[Mr. Pink]

Originally Posted by C40_guy

Interesting article in today's Boston Globe about taking a road trip in a (non-Tesla) EV.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/01/...verlay_Results

Bottom line -- range anxiety is a thing...if you're not driving a Tesla, you may find it quite challenging to find a usable Level 2 or Level 3 charger.

A key challenge with EVs is that people in apartment buildings may not have easy access to chargers. Eventually apartment building owners will *probably* put chargers in parking lots, but for those that park on the street, chargers just may not be available for a long time.

Another hard line between the haves and have nots.

Easy enough for the "haves" to own an EV as a second or third vehicle. But, for those who can barely afford a first vehicle, and live in rental housing...

This is my complaint. I guess I should be astounded at the arrogance and short sighted attitudes of certain politicians, but, I'm not. For years we've watched the abandonment of the working and middle class by both parties, because, well, that ain't where the money is, but this incredibly harmful rush to force EVs on us all really tops it all. A certain governor of the largest state in the west seems to find it incredibly easy to sign a proclamation that, hear ye, hear ye, All must drive electric cars in ten years, but hasn't addressed the consequences of that decision, which is just going to be a virtue signaling platform on his resume for higher office. The grid is already failing, starting massive fires in the state, and millions who are paycheck to paycheck keeping high mileage Hondas alive with duct tape will see their annual transportation costs double and triple. Has anybody remotely considered what this will do to our always fragile economy? Probably not. The present day Marie Antionettes just say, Let them drive Teslas!
Our elite leadership fails again, but, nobody will get fired, and most will get bonuses.

[Mr. Pink]

Originally Posted by dmitrik4

But infrastructure will adapt.

Infrastructure is inanimate. It makes no decisions, good or bad. Humans need to adapt, and, sorry, I dont see it. Have you seen the news item recently of tha Arizona "town" or however it's incorporated that has had its water supply cut off by Scottsdale in Arizona? There you go, too far, too fast, and yet, they interviewed one home owner in this development that said, Yeah, it's tough, but, I'm not moving, this is perfect for me and my family. Really. Even the lack of water cant change his mind. And there's millions like him, moving to the west, not even considering the consequences. Salt Lake City is one of our fastest growing cities, and, because of that and a draught, is emptying the Great Salt Lake at such a rapid rate that some think it may be totally dry in a decade, unleashing clouds of fine particle toxins into the air that millions will breath every day. And yet, I'll bet that, if you drove up and down twelve lane I15 today, you'd see all sorts of residential and commercial construction going on. I read recently about another development planned in Arizona that is ridiculously large, considering water issues, but, it may be built.
All that development needs a lot of electricity, too, but, where are they planning for that? Then you require all of these people to drive EVs, and you can see where the problem is. But America wants its dream, a 3000 sq ft 3-4 bedroom, four bathroom with a green yard and a pool, and, damnit, even though it's an hour to work and Home Depot, they're going to have it. Ride the bus?? Ride the train?? What do I look like? A prole? They'll figure it out. They always do. At least I dont have to live in the east, where it rains.

[MikeD]

Originally Posted by dmitrik4

But infrastructure will adapt. It has before, when people riding horses laughed at those new-fangled “auto mobiles.” Where you gonna refuel that thing? My horse can just eat grass when it gets hungry!

We’re still in the early, early days of EV development. Even given the (overblown) issues with manufacturing (ICE vehicles also use a lot of energy and create a lot of waste/pollution to build), the immense efficiency advantage of EV powertrains over IC make it almost inevitable. The two main hurdles now are charging infrastructure and battery energy density, and those are solvable things.

This is silly. Automobiles were such a huge improvement over horses. EVs? No. Government is forcing the change. In the old days not. Let the market decide whether someone buys an EV or not. Who is going to pay for all of this? Utility customers and renters and taxpayers. How much does putting in a single charging station in an apartment parking stall cost? Who's going to maintain it?

[Tickdoc]

Originally Posted by MikeD

This is silly. Automobiles were such a huge improvement over horses. EVs? No. Government is forcing the change. In the old days not. Let the market decide whether someone buys an EV or not. Who is going to pay for all of this? Utility customers and renters and taxpayers. How much does putting in a single charging station in an apartment parking stall cost? Who's going to maintain it?

Maybe it will be free ev's for everyone, like free cell phones? Might as well give em all free autodriving too.

[MikeD]

Originally Posted by Mr. Pink

This is my complaint. I guess I should be astounded at the arrogance and short sighted attitudes of certain politicians, but, I'm not. For years we've watched the abandonment of the working and middle class by both parties, because, well, that ain't where the money is, but this incredibly harmful rush to force EVs on us all really tops it all. A certain governor of the largest state in the west seems to find it incredibly easy to sign a proclamation that, hear ye, hear ye, All must drive electric cars in ten years, but hasn't addressed the consequences of that decision, which is just going to be a virtue signaling platform on his resume for higher office. The grid is already failing, starting massive fires in the state, and millions who are paycheck to paycheck keeping high mileage Hondas alive with duct tape will see their annual transportation costs double and triple. Has anybody remotely considered what this will do to our always fragile economy? Probably not. The present day Marie Antionettes just say, Let them drive Teslas!
Our elite leadership fails again, but, nobody will get fired, and most will get bonuses.

It's not only EVs. It's a war on nat gas appliances like home water heaters and furnaces. It's a war on diesel big rigs. The last one is a biggie. Just about everything in the "Golden State" moves by truck. Talk about cratering the economy, this one has a huge potential to do so. I see a trucker strike looming.

[callmeishmael]

Originally Posted by BdaGhisallo

Are there any signs that the UK will be able to generate enough electricity to make that happen? The fact that they are facing energy shortages now, before they add a lot more demand to the grid, argues against it.

There’s no evidence whatsoever and I have very little confidence in the current administration’s competence to fix it (or, indeed, organise a drinking session ina brewery). Happy times.

[paredown]

Originally Posted by dmitrik4

But infrastructure will adapt. It has before, when people riding horses laughed at those new-fangled “auto mobiles.” Where you gonna refuel that thing? My horse can just eat grass when it gets hungry!

We’re still in the early, early days of EV development. Even given the (overblown) issues with manufacturing (ICE vehicles also use a lot of energy and create a lot of waste/pollution to build), the immense efficiency advantage of EV powertrains over IC make it almost inevitable. The two main hurdles now are charging infrastructure and battery energy density, and those are solvable things.

I always liked the quote attributed (incorrectly it seems) to Henry Ford:

“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”

And it is fair to say, Tesla take-up--"rich people's toys'-- as Angry says--have been helped by the tax incentives and direct government subsidies to Tesla Inc. This--despite Elon's fervency about free markets:

Tesla’s total subsidy value according to the data is $2,441,582,590 ($2.44 billion), across 109 “awards” — 82 federal grants and tax credits as well as 27 state and local awards.
Source: https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/03...dies-how-much/

Henry Ford required no such thing.

That said, I think you can make a reasonable argument that switching to EVs is more akin to the government program to bring electricity to rural America--network effects plus concern about the deleterious effects of path dependence on petroleum. Plus, as the article noted above, other automakers have received larger subsidies (Ford etc)--as well as petroleum producers--and that seems to be insane, given that the rationale for switching to EVs is to mitigate climate disruption and damage.

To say that there is incoherence in government would be an understatement--but I still think that Angry's (and my earlier point about 'equity') get short shrift when the actual government clean energy programs are conceived and implemented. Even that Boston Globe article that C40 cited is predicated (more or less) on the notion that 'I want to drive long distance in my EV, and the government has not done enough to make that possible!'--without even a nod to the notion that to be commuting long-distance on I-95 puts you in a minority of current EV owners, and an even smaller minority of tax payers who both have an EV and the time to commute. If we were to approach the problem with the political will to make it happen, we would go through and eliminate every perverse subsidy in the Federal and State budgets (and it is a long list but it starts with ending subsidies for fossil fuel production and distribution), start a moonshot program for efficient (and I think free) public transportation to get people out of their cars, a national standards body to create standards for charging infrastructure etc.

And say what you want about Elon, he understood that range and charging would be an issue, and he was on that project to do something about it before it was even a glimmer in the minds of most government officials.

[dmitrik4]

Originally Posted by MikeD

This is silly. Automobiles were such a huge improvement over horses. EVs? No. Government is forcing the change. In the old days not. Let the market decide whether someone buys an EV or not. Who is going to pay for all of this? Utility customers and renters and taxpayers. How much does putting in a single charging station in an apartment parking stall cost? Who's going to maintain it?

OK

Were automobiles a huge improvement over horses right away? Not by a long shot. They were more expensive, slower, and less reliable. They were novelty items—rich people toys.

Eventually, they were much better than horses. Same thing will happen here; remember, current EVs are basically the most rudimentary, least capable ones that will ever be made. It’s going to happen.

[BdaGhisallo]

Originally Posted by dmitrik4

OK

Were automobiles a huge improvement over horses right away? Not by a long shot. They were more expensive, slower, and less reliable. They were novelty items—rich people toys.

Eventually, they were much better than horses. Same thing will happen here; remember, current EVs are basically the most rudimentary, least capable ones that will ever be made. It’s going to happen.

Were the limits on the penetration of the automobile - more gasoline and more stations selling it - as great as the current limits on battery development?

There's only so much of every element in the Earth's crust and doing the math on what will be needed for batteries, if the current path of greater electrification of society is maintained, seems to indicate that there isn't enough stuff to make what will be needed.

[robt57]

Originally Posted by NHAero

Apropos your comment that the costs to get into a plug in hybrid outweighs the return:

Seeing the numbers now on my PHEV Van, 60k plus more if they are getting over sticker whihc I think they are... My 2020 $46k MSRP cost me well under 30k with 10k off sticker and 10k in tax payer money back and DEQ. But @ 60k I am pressed to see the economy in it but maybe for way higher resale values going forward..


Pure EV wise:

I think the higher resale value potentials perhaps negates the outweighs dept. The running cost certainly do, not if you charge commercially VS home so much perhaps. Near zero maintenance on full EV not withstanding etc.

In the case of the Bolt we have. Comparatively the loan payment is 47.00 higher per mo. but also a higher amount was financed. 20k instead of the fit 14k, term a year longer too. And Bolt co$t just below double the Fit LX [4 years prior].

Point is, with the Fit 1000 mile/mo commutes @ 2.80/gal cost 90.00 mo in fuel. Gas doubled for a while too as we all know, here anyway. so that 90.00/mo woulda been avg for the years 2020, let's say 4.00/gal 35.00 more per mo for 2022.

Bolt used avg 35.00/mo electric [home charged] in total [more winter]. So at lowest gas cost during our ownership, $90-35=55.00. 55.00-47.00 = a sandwhich/mo in the black.

Subtract oil changes from the equation and the economy of it seems more apparent, sandwich aside..

Even if straight out cash purchase, Bolt resale VS Fit 5 year out will be higher % of purchase. Point being 5 years out you may have lost similar dollars on resale/trade. You need to take the resale/trade equity recovered into the equation when you say how much anything 'cost' being my point.

[Onno]

Originally Posted by MikeD

It's not only EVs. It's a war on nat gas appliances like home water heaters and furnaces. It's a war on diesel big rigs. The last one is a biggie. Just about everything in the "Golden State" moves by truck. Talk about cratering the economy, this one has a huge potential to do so. I see a trucker strike looming.

"War on" always strikes me as unnecessarily inflammatory, suggesting that the real motivation is malice, an intentional targeting of a specific group. That's just not true here. Obviously the real intention of these laws is to mitigate climate warming, and to do that we have to severely restrict our collective use of fossil fuels. Yes, doing this will affect people unequally (which is true of all laws), it will be a bumpy road, and mistakes will be made. But if we are going to survive the effects of climate change, which will itself dramatically and unequally affect everyone, then we need to move to an all or nearly-all electric world.

[robt57]

I should add, the Bolt [VS my friend Tesla S] has a much better mile/kWh rolling. So Apples and Oranges.

A PDX to Tacoma round trip we had in the Model S used more $$ in Supercharger juice than even my PHEV running in hybrid/ga$ mode, even with the EV store on the PHEX staring @ zero.