OT - Dow plunges 1,175 - worst point decline in history

[buddybikes]

Supply chain breaks. Not only from Chinese suppliers but from freight all over.

Told my wife this was the cliff (maybe not big cliff but who knows) a month ago. Did I do anything, no :-(

[Louis]

Originally Posted by steveandbarb1

Told my wife this was the cliff (maybe not big cliff but who knows) a month ago. Did I do anything, no :-(

Should have stocked up on N95 respiratory masks:

[Llewellyn]

Sigh......in five years time this will just be a blip on the graph. The market is over-priced so this isn't all that surprising and it's not that bad for people with a long term outlook. Coronavirus is just the excuse people needed to sell.

[joosttx]

Originally Posted by llewellyn

sigh......in five years time this will just be a blip on the graph. The market is over-priced so this isn't all that surprising and it's not that bad for people with a long term outlook. Coronavirus is just the excuse people needed to sell.

b-i-n-g-o

[Burnette]

Originally Posted by Llewellyn

Sigh......in five years time this will just be a blip on the graph. The market is over-priced so this isn't all that surprising and it's not that bad for people with a long term outlook. Coronavirus is just the excuse people needed to sell.

Absolutely, a price pull back is great for my retirement account. Paying top dollar for stocks at this stage is counterproductive. My balance looks good now but I'm buying too high and that will stunt my growth later as true value catches up.

But, as bad as this virus is, just as soon as it passes IMO stick prices will roar back to new highs.

The virus only solidifies the notion that big money has nowhere else to go but markets, ours in particular as others show proof of more risks.

I don't wish for recession, but a fundamentals based correction would be timely. It's not going to happen though, it's off to the races again as soon as this is over.

[Tony T]

Originally Posted by kppolich

Points mean nothing.

DOW worst 2-day percentage drop in two years

I know, just keeping in spirit with the threads heading

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by Tony T

I know, just keeping in spirit with the threads heading

Gonna continue to be a rough few days. In spite of what some talking head(s) said in India, it is NOT 'in control' in the US..Unless we close our borders(possible), it WILL end up in a large population center(NY?)..and then it's going to get ugly..

[saab2000]

Not to disrespect those who are suffering and dying, but this virus has a 98% survival rate and that is likely to increase.

The hysteria is far greater than the actual sickness it causes, which is similar to the flu or a bad cold as far as I can tell.

Influenza continues to kill many people each year and there's little hysteria about that.

I'm not doing anything with my 401k.

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by saab2000

Not to disrespect those who are suffering and dying, but this virus has a 98% survival rate and that is likely to increase.

The hysteria is far greater than the actual sickness it causes, which is similar to the flu or a bad cold as far as I can tell.

Influenza continues to kill many people each year and there's little hysteria about that.

I'm not doing anything with my 401k.

Flu has a .01% mortality rate..Coronavirus is over 2%..The flu IS dangerous, but this disease is not understood well, there is no inoculation for it and it IS spread much more easily that the flu. PLUS it is fueled by the media and general hysteria. I think at least one guy is pleased it is a Chinese problem but it's going to be a US problem before long. We'll see what the administration does then...go on twitter, I suppose.

I have a family vacation..with grand daughters, 7 of us total, in March..all going to Disneyland..really worried about this effecting that.

I'm not sure hospitals are preparing because the government is running around worrying about the stock market and otherwise covering up the problem because it would embarrass Trump. It's like the sharpie hurricane map with real consequences.

Yup, he's more worried about his twitter feed, MSM, and if anybody is criticizing him than protecting Americans..AND the big corporate boys who's pocket he resides in..

[verticaldoug]

Originally Posted by saab2000

Not to disrespect those who are suffering and dying, but this virus has a 98% survival rate and that is likely to increase.

The hysteria is far greater than the actual sickness it causes, which is similar to the flu or a bad cold as far as I can tell.

Influenza continues to kill many people each year and there's little hysteria about that.

I'm not doing anything with my 401k.

Actually, the way the press is reporting numbers is a bit misleading. You should use lagging infections versus fatalities. You first need to be infected, then you either recover or not. If you look at closed cases in China, the mortality rate is close to 8.37% and recovery rate is 91.63%. You will not know final counts until after the fact.

The mortality rate for flu in US is about 0.06%. It just infects about 5% of the population every year. For China, the mortality rate is higher, but not 2%. I'd say China is about under control. Italy, Korea and Iran, not so much.


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31607054

The only people you should really be listening to is the CDC. I do not believe they are saying this is just a cold or flu. It's new, they don't know is the only answer.

[Octave]

Originally Posted by saab2000

Not to disrespect those who are suffering and dying, but this virus has a 98% survival rate and that is likely to increase

The hysteria is far greater than the actual sickness it causes, which is similar to the flu or a bad cold as far as I can tell.

Influenza continues to kill many people each year and there's little hysteria about that.

A) That survival rate is probably conservative at this point, especially as it reaches more so-called "developing nations."

B) The seasonal flu has an R-naught (or RO) of around 1.3, meaning that each person who carries the virus is likely to infect 1.3 other people. Covid-19 is currently estimated around 3.11, meaning it spreads much more easily and quickly from one person to another.

C) We have vaccines and known treatments for influenza. Not the case for Covid-19 for which the treatment approach at this point is contain, hope you don't die.

[unterhausen]

the way China is under control is by quarantining half their population. Do that in the U.S. and there will be a big problem. What percentage of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck again?

There is no way we would build a 10k patient hospital in a couple of weeks here. It would take years.

We're particularly ill equipped for this. Penn State student health was exposed to a student with measles a couple of years ago, and everything just fell apart. They didn't have a rational response for 2 weeks. I see no evidence that they are preparing for an outbreak of this on campus. I'm not sure hospitals are preparing because the government is running around worrying about the stock market and otherwise covering up the problem because it would embarrass Trump. It's like the sharpie hurricane map with real consequences.

[saab2000]

Originally Posted by Octave

hope you don't die.

I hope not as well. I'm currently not panicking.

[hokoman]

Originally Posted by oldpotatoe

it WILL end up in a large population center(NY?)..and then it's going to get ugly..

Today is my last day of work in Flushing - this is where it is going to show up in NY in my opinion. I manage a mall, and it has been crazy quiet for the past 3 weeks, but on top of my mall is 1250 condos, and the residential property managers are very concerned about their residents bringing it. The people that live above me, travel a lot.

Originally Posted by saab2000

Not to disrespect those who are suffering and dying, but this virus has a 98% survival rate and that is likely to increase.

The hysteria is far greater than the actual sickness it causes, which is similar to the flu or a bad cold as far as I can tell.

This is a terrible percentage. 98% survival rate for something that seems to spread this easily is crazy. Not that it matters, but just glad that the cases in kids is low and my wife and I are pretty healthy... Not that it matters. Hoping this dies down.

Back on topic, the market has been propped up for years.

[saab2000]

Originally Posted by hokoman

This is a terrible percentage. 98% survival rate for something that seems to spread this easily is crazy. Not that it matters, but just glad that the cases in kids is low and my wife and I are pretty healthy... Not that it matters. Hoping this dies down.

Back on topic, the market has been propped up for years.

Yes, it is. I guess my point is that it seems from chats I've had with people that there is a perception that if you get the virus you die. That's not the case at all.

There is some thinking that come summer and warmer weather the virus will begin to lose its ability to spread easily.

As to the market, yes, it has been unnaturally elevated.